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Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.
Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, , Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe have a pessimistic outlook on the Turkish lira, strategist saysBrendan McKenna of Wells Fargo Securities says it expects Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to retain his unorthodox monetary policy, given his reelection victory.
The Turkish lira sank Monday as incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured his victory in the 2023 presidential election, extending his rule into a third decade in power. "We have a pretty pessimistic outlook on the Turkish Lira as a result of Erdogan retaining office after the election," Wells Fargo's Emerging Markets Economist and FX Strategist Brendan McKenna told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." He expects Turkey's unorthodox monetary and economic policy frameworks to remain in place going forward. Turkey's monetary policy places an emphasis on the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than taming inflation, and Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation. "With limited FX reserves and massively negative real interest rates the pressure on the lira is heavy," Ash continued.
Since neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote, however, the election will go to a runoff on May 28. They also reveal that despite Turkey's current economic turmoil, tens of millions of Turks still see Erdogan as their only viable leader. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters garden on May 15, 2023 in Ankara, Turkey. Still, Kilicdaroglu's 44.9% of the vote is notable as the highest any opposition candidate ever received, said Orcun Selcuk, an assistant professor of political science at Luther College in Iowa, on Twitter. "The opposition clearly did not meet the expectations but it would be a misjudgment to say that opposition coordination failed.
Strategist discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen
  + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWon't be surprising to see the Japanese yen appreciate over the medium to longer term: StrategistBrendan McKenna of Wells Fargo Securities says that's nevertheless unlikely to be "as much as markets may have expected."
BENGALURU, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A budget that accelerates fiscal consolidation would give more support to the Indian rupee in the near term, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who forecast the currency would erase a fifth of last year's losses over the next 12 months. A majority of FX analysts, 11 of 17, said a Feb. 1 budget that focuses on fiscal consolidation would help the Indian rupee the most in the near term. None of the respondents expected the rupee to be stronger than 75 per dollar, where it started 2022, at any point this year. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, said the "fiscal deficit is still too high and needs to be reduced" for the rupee to find some support. "High fiscal deficit will hurt the savings-investment balance, curb improvement in current account deficit, and complicate the RBI's efforts to temper inflation pressures."
The Peruvian sol currency and dollar bond prices recovered early losses after President Pedro Castillo was removed in an impeachment trial following his attempt to dissolve Congress. The sol remains one of the few emerging market currencies with gains against the U.S. dollar so far this year. "So much political uncertainty is never welcome, yet the reason why markets have historically shrugged off political developments in Peru has to do with the fact that the country's fundamentals are decently strong." The sol fell over 2% against the dollar at its session low of 3.8898 before recovering slightly to trade down 1.4% at 3.8625 per dollar in early afternoon trading. Vice President Dina Boluarte was sworn as president through 2026 and the first woman to lead the Andean nation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. dollar has room to strengthen further until early next year, says strategistBrendan McKenna of Wells Fargo Securities says as interest rate differentials continue to widen, the U.S. dollar will strengthen throughout this year and early into 2023.
Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. Thursday's sudden burst of yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities -- the first instance since 1998 - caused a large 6 yen move between 140 and 146 in the dollar-yen exchange rate . U.S. policy rates are now 3 percentage points higher than Japan's. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda made clear that policy won't change, and even the yen the BOJ is buying as part of intervention will be replaced. while the boj intervened heavily between april and june 1998, the yen didn't trough until September.
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