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☆ What a hot job market means for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.

Persons: FactSet, ”, Seema Shah, “, Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, “, Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine

☆ The jobs number surpassed everyone’s expectations. Cue the complaints about the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.

Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, —, ” Carlsson, Szlezak, “, ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington

☆ Here's why the stock market is throwing a tantrum about new inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Core inflation rose unexpectedly, dashing hopes for a bigger rate cut from the Fed. US indexes slumped on Wednesday, with the Dow dropping as much as 600 basis points in the early morning as traders took a mixed-bag of inflation data. That's the lowest headline inflation rate recorded since early 2021. On the other hand, cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points means higher for longer interest rates. "Today's inflation data cemented in a 25 basis point cut next week 50 basis points in out the window," she added.

Persons: —, Julian Howard, Gina Bolvin, Preston Caldwell, Chris Zacarelli Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Dow, of Labor Statistics, GAM Investments, Bolvin Wealth Management, Labor Department, Morningstar, Independent

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

☆ US stocks trade mixed as bond yields spike after hot retail sales data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as bond yields surged after a blowout retail sales report. Retail sales jumped 0.7% in September from the prior month, more than double forecasts. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks finished mixed on Tuesday as investors took in higher Treasury yields and a hotter-than-expected retail sales report. Retail sales rose 0.7% through the month of September, blowing past economists' expectations for a 0.3% monthly gain. "Retail sales showed a big upside surprise today, to the Fed's dismay," Bolvin Wealth Management Group president Gina Bolvin said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Stocks, —, Gina Bolvin Organizations: Retail, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ Analysts react to Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. I do think that they'll remain data dependent and you'll probably hear that from Powell at the 2:30 press conference and going forward as well. So yes, they're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. This is because when the Fed announces an interest rate increase, credit card interest rates typically follow shortly thereafter, which may result in larger minimum monthly payments for credit card holders. While the decision not to raise interest rates this time round mitigates that for now, more interest rate increases may be on the horizon.

Persons: Jerome Powell, GARRETT MELSON, presser, GINA BOLVIN, Powell, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, KARL SCHAMOTTA, GENNADIY GOLDBERG, it's, TOM MARTIN, MICHELE RANERI Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, PPI, OF, TOM, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Powell, WISCONSIN, TORONTO, U.S, ATLANTA, CHICAGO

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 7, 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped in the world's second-largest economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said, its first decline since February 2021. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported results as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.18-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 16 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 178 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Krupa, Patrick Harker, Gina Bolvin, Wells, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, Krupa, Echo Wang, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Penn Entertainment, Dow, Nasdaq, Consumer, Index, Lenox Advisors, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, Traders, FedWatch, Wall, Nvidia, Apple, National Bureau of Statistics, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Bengaluru

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on Thursday, is expected to show a slight acceleration from last year. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped in the world's second-largest economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, its first decline since February 2021. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 31.47 points, or 0.70%, to end at 4,467.91 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 162.31 points, or 1.17%, to 13,723.96. Six of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, with energy stocks (.SPNY) leading the gain. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported results as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Krupa, Patrick Harker, Gina Bolvin, Michelle Bowman, Wells, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, Krupa, Echo Wang, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Penn Entertainment, Dow, Nasdaq, Lenox Advisors, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, Traders, FedWatch, Wall, Nvidia, Apple, Index, Bank of America, National Bureau of Statistics, Dow Jones, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Are investors ignoring the Federal Reserve’s warning?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —Stocks fell last week as several signs pointed to the Federal Reserve continuing to hike rates this year. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, is derived from S&P 500 index options prices and measures volatility expectations. Meanwhile, the May Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the wholesale level cooled to below its pre-pandemic average. Tuesday: Case-Shiller home price index and new home sales. Friday: May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and University of Michigan June consumer sentiment and inflation expectations final reading.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Jerome Powell, BoE, Tom Graff, Price, ”, Graff, it’s, Liz Young, Gina Bolvin, Bitcoin, Charles Schwab Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Bank of England, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bolvin Wealth Management, “, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, BlackRock, EDX, Fidelity Digital Assets, Citadel, Index, University of Michigan

☆ US dollar gains as inflation data backs Fed rate hike; yen sinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 101.54 . Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index edged 0.1% higher in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February. Following the inflation data, the rate futures market has priced in a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point hike next week.

☆ As earnings season begins, S&P 500 forecast looks less weak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That compares with their week-ago forecast for a 5.2% year-over-year decline in the quarter. S&P 500 earnings fell 3.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, based on Refinitiv data, which means the first quarter still would mark a second straight quarterly decline in U.S. earnings, or a profit recession. Investors have been eagerly awaiting quarterly results from banks following the collapse of two U.S. regional banks in March. A slew of other regional banks are still due to report in the coming weeks, including Zions Bancorp (ZION.O) on Wednesday. Quarterly results are also expected next week from Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N) and Netflix (NFLX.O).

☆ Bonds are back this year after one of their worst stretches ever
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.

☆ The 60/40 portfolio: Why one wealth manager thinks the strategy is coming back and her tips for using it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gina Bolvin thinks the 60/40 portfolio will make a comeback in 2023. But the Bolvin Wealth Management Group president has some specific tips for investors considering the strategy after a down year. That will help the 60/40 portfolio once again perform an effective investing strategy, she said. "I'm fascinated that after one horrible year, I've seen advisors are saying the 60/40 portfolio is dead. "The 60/40 portfolio has a good long term track record, so one year isn't a trend."

☆ The Fed just made its last rate hike of the year. Here's what it means and what happens next.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chair Powell took an aggressive stance at the podium Wednesday, effectively saying the central bank isn't done hiking rates. The Fed signaled it won't be taking its foot off the gas anytime soon with policy, but markets of late have been acting like a so-called Fed pivot is all but guaranteed. "Powell's very hawkish comments didn't get a very hawkish reaction from the market," Wright maintained. But the more the market ignores the Fed, the longer the Fed will have to keep monetary policy restrictive, which ultimately raises the odds of a recession. "We're likely to see head-fakes like this where the market looks for a Fed pivot," one strategist said.

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