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The popular 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds has returned double digits annually since 1979. Inker shares the risks of the 60/40 strategy and where he's looking for opportunities. AdvertisementFor decades, the 60/40 strategy has been the gold standard of investing. As a result, the 60/40 portfolio right now is not set up to generate attractive returns. Related storiesInvesting against the grainInstead of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, Inker recommends taking a more flexible approach to different asset allocations.
Persons: Ben, , Jeremy Grantham, doesn't, they've Organizations: Service, Bloomberg
High interest rates have been a boon to Americans holding cash, but many on Wall Street are cautioning investors to start thinking ahead. People have been piling into cash vehicles like money market funds and certificates of deposit since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates. Interest rates appear to be staying higher for longer, with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday projecting only one rate cut this year. Agency MBS have a duration of about six years, per the Bloomberg US MBS Index as of June 3, Jones noted. Right now, the residential mortgage-backed securities sector looks attractive because of its relative value compared to investment-grade corporate bonds, he said.
Persons: Jones, Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, Alvarado, Falconio Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Agency MBS, Bloomberg, MBS, UBS, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Investors, corporates, UBS America's, AAA Locations: UBS Americas, Wells, Wells Fargo
Interest in fixed income has increased over the past year after rising bond yields put them back on investors' radars. Related storiesCorporate bonds with high yields are the new darling as investors dig for returns that beat inflation, Klein said. The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index, a measurement of non-investment grade bonds, has a yield to worst (a measure of the lowest possible yield) of 7.65% and a one-year total return of 12.9%. It's unusual for equities to be doing very well and high yield to be doing poorly, he added. But buyers beware: high-yield bonds are also called non-investment grade and junk bonds, and it's for good reason.
Persons: there's, Goldman Sachs, Patrick Klein, Franklin, Klein, Goldman, don't Organizations: Business, Franklin Templeton, Bloomberg
Investors looking for income should be well-rewarded this year, once again, buying high-yield bonds, according to State Street. He's predicting high-yield bonds will again be one of the top-performing fixed-income sectors in 2024. High-yield bonds currently have spreads of 3.43 percentage points relative to Treasurys, according to the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread . Of course, investors should understand that high-yield bonds carry more risk than investment-grade debt. "They should be balancing the quality characteristics of high-yield bonds relative to the yield that those bonds are providing," he said.
Persons: Michael Arone, Arone Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal, ICE, CNBC Locations: United States
Treasury bonds have erased this year's losses amid a rebound from their historic collapse. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly flat. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly back where it was at the end of 2022. The hawkish stance sparked a historic crash in long-dated bonds, which suffered 46% losses between March 2020 and early October. And so far in the month of November alone, the Bloomberg US Treasury index is up 2.8%, its largest increase since March.
Persons: , Treasurys, there's Organizations: Bloomberg US, Federal, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, YE24
The actively managed fund, which trades under the ticker FBND, has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.41%, according to Morningstar. FBND's total return year to date is -0.83%, as of Monday, according to Morningstar , which gives the fund four-stars. It has a trailing 5-year total return of 0.87%. So on a risk-adjusted basis, it's really, really strong," he added. When rates started to go up, the team bought the long end of the Treasury yield curve.
Persons: Morningstar, It's, Mike Mulach, Celso Muñoz, we've, Muñoz, Ford O'Neil, we'll Organizations: Fidelity, Bond, SEC, Morningstar, Bloomberg, Bond Funds, Muñoz, Federal National Mortgage Association, National Mortgage Association, Bank of America, Treasury, Federal Locations: outperformance
Florida beat out New York to become the country's second-most-valuable housing market, Zillow said. Of the top six markets that gained the most value since the onset of COVID-19, four are in Florida. The market boom is driven by an influx in new residents putting more demand on the housing stock. Florida welcomed 655,000 new residents since the start of the pandemic, according to Census estimates reported by Insider in March. Stefanie Mortenson traded her life in Virginia for a $159,000 tiny home near Tampa, Florida.
Persons: Zillow, , Stefanie Mortensen, Stefanie Mortenson, Noelle Lane, Nicole Panesso, There's, David Triana Organizations: Florida, Service, Sunshine, Bloomberg, Florida Atlantic University, Florida International University, Tampa, North, Coral, Lakeland, Cape Coral, Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University Locations: New York, Florida, California, Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, Virginia, Tampa , Florida, North Port, Palm, Gulf Coast, Naples, Cape, Georgia, Tennessee, Nicole Panesso South Florida, Fort Lauderdale, Chattanooga , Tennessee, Clermont , Florida
The stock market is poised to hit new 2023 highs by the end of the year, according to Bank of America. The bank said a leading bond market indicator just flashed a bullish signal for the stock market. That's a leading indicator for the stock market because bond investors are typically the first in the market to panic about some type of macro event that could lead to pain for equities. And when bond investors panic, they demand higher yields for the debts that they buy. AdvertisementAdvertisementAlso boding well for the stock market and further potential upside is the fact that defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples are falling and breaking support levels.
Persons: BofA, That's, Suttmeier Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon
Vanguard's Emerging Markets Bond fund (VEMBX) is a "hidden gem" and Vanguard's best foreign bond fund, according to Jeff DeMaso, founder and editor of the newsletter "The Independent Vanguard Adviser." "It's a well-run emerging markets bond fund that has topped its index (and the Morningstar peer group)," DeMaso said. The actively managed fund was up 43% from April 2016 through May 2023, compared with an 11% return for Vanguard's Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund (VGAVX) during the same time frame, according to DeMaso's calculations. The VGAVX seeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg USD Emerging Markets Government RIC Capped Index. Not only does VEMBX fly under the radar, but it has a stellar portfolio manager in Daniel Shaykevich, DeMaso said.
Persons: Jeff DeMaso, Morningstar, DeMaso, Daniel Shaykevich, Shaykevich Organizations: Vanguard's, Independent Vanguard, SEC, Morningstar, Vanguard's Emerging, Government, Index, Bloomberg, Markets Government RIC, Vanguard, BlackRock Locations: United States, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Columbia, Persian, Saharan Africa
The River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund has out-returned 99% of similar credit funds for five years. When Sam Reid says his River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund "has no competition," it sounds like a boast. But what he's actually saying is he's able to invest in a much wider range of assets than managers of other credit funds. He added that his fund "sits in between the hedge fund world and the vanilla mutual fund world." Reid also said he's been working to reduce the duration in his portfolios ahead of a recession.
The world's rich invested $455 billion in commercial properties in 2022, according to Knight Frank's wealth report. Whether in a private capacity or through a family office, the world's wealthy invested $455 billion in commercial properties, according to Knight Frank's wealth report released on Wednesday. Private capital also surpassed investments from institutions, which poured $440 billion in commercial property, down 28% from the year before. Investments in luxury collectibles increased by 16% last year, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index. Despite the increased investment, the world's ultra-rich ultimately lost $13.8 trillion, or 13.6%, of their wealth in 2022.
Investors aren't making as much money on the classic 60/40 strategy as holding short-term bonds. The mix of US equities and debt yields 5.07%, while yields on the six-month US Treasury hit 5.16% on Tuesday. Cash holdings haven't paid out more than the 60/40 portfolio since 2001. Meanwhile, returns on short-term Treasury bills are also sensitive to increases in the fed funds rate and climb alongside the benchmark. In 2023, the 60/40 strategy has given investors 2.7% after tumbling 17% last year, its biggest decline since 2008.
In a note to clients on Monday, Seliger said investment-grade corporate credit in particular is in for a big year. Investment-grade corporate bonds are those rated Baa by Moody's and BBB by S&P and Fitch because they're deemed to have low default risk. "This base case scenario implies a +12.9% total return and +379bps excess return for IG corporate bonds in 2023. Bank of AmericaBank of America's November survey of bond investors showed that both high yield bond investors and investment-grade bond investors expect BBB-rated bonds to outperform most relative to Treasurys in 2023. The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) are two ways to gain exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds.
Will we cover 75% of California with green energy tech? Given these existing technological limitations and regulations, the aggregate demand for land to power our future green economy is huge. We would need 120,000 square miles, or 77 million acres, of land to install the wind and solar facilities for the energy transition. As cities expand, rising land prices in these areas would further constrain the location options for green energy generators. The political backlash in rural America could be alleviated if the economic gains from green power are large enough.
The surging U.S. dollar is causing havoc in global currency markets and that appears to be spilling into the equity markets. Betting on the dollar The simplest way for investors to benefit from the surging U.S. dollar is to buy ETFs that track currency indexes. Currency hedging strategies For investors who want international exposure in their portfolios, the surging dollar is an even bigger worry. There are many currency-hedged ETFs that have outperformed their un-hedged counterparts so far this year, which could help investors limit the impact of a stronger dollar. There are many currency-hedged ETFs that have outperformed their un-hedged counterparts so far this year, which could help investors limit the impact of a stronger dollar.
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