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☆ Anthony Scaramucci is worried about a stock-market crash not seen since the late 1920s if Trump follows through on some of his plans
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementUS stocks have been on a tear since Trump's win. "Let me tell you something: If Trump enacted 50% of what he's saying, you'll have a stock market crash, the likes that you haven't seen since the 1920s," Scaramucci said. You'll crush the economy; you'll crush our tax revenues; you'll flip upside down the job market," Scaramucci said. "They will not be ready for that, and so the stock market will have gotten wrong the current movement." "My guess is that the stock market aficionados, the stock market experts, are probably right," Scaramucci said.

Persons: SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci, Trump, there's, Scaramucci, —, Anthony Scaramucci, it's, Bitcoin, Donald Trump's, didn't, David Bahnsen, he's, — Elon Musk, Elon, Tom Orlik, David Kelly, , Susie Wiles Organizations: Service, House, SkyBridge, Business, Nasdaq, Russell, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican

☆ A top mind at JPMorgan Asset Management warns of clear economic red flag after Trump's big win, despite soaring US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

US stocks had one of their best days in years and hit new records after Trump's resounding win over Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election. Both of those moves make sense, said David Kelly, the global strategy chief at JPMorgan Asset Management, in an interview on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe strategy chief has been adamant that higher tariffs — one of Trump's key proposals — would cripple the US economy and endanger the global economic expansion. Related storiesMost economists condemn tariffs, which are taxes on imports, because they tend to lead to higher prices and lower economic growth. Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, made a similar point in a recent interview with Business Insider when asked about Trump's tariffs and Kelly's stance.

Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Wall, he's, —, Donald Trump's, Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kelly, Trump, Mahatma Gandhi, I'm, I've, Tom Orlik, who's, Chris Murphy, Susquehanna's, Orlik, Sean Gallagher, Gallagher, maven, He's, inflation's Organizations: House . Market, Service, Nasdaq, US, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican, JPMAM, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Trump Locations: Tuesday's

☆ The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. Related storiesThese signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence. Such tariffs would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy," Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop cited tariffs as a top risk back in June. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway.

Persons: David Kelly, —, JPMAM, Kelly, Donald Trump who's, Tom Orlik, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, I'd Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics, Peterson

☆ The US can 'ill afford' another war now its rivals are teaming up so well, US general says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US can "ill afford" another war if conflict breaks out in East Asia, Gen. Charles Flynn warned. From the Middle East to Russia, authoritarian regimes are challenging US power. AdvertisementThe US Army's outgoing top commander in the Pacific region has warned that the US can "ill afford" another war because its military is vastly overstretched. "There's a limited regional war going on in the Middle East. We can ill afford another limited regional war in Asia.

Persons: Charles Flynn, —, North Korea —, Flynn, Russia's, Kim Jong, Russia's Vladimir Putin, GAVRIIL GRIGOROV, Kathryn Levantovscaia, Stephen Sklenka, haven't, Raphael Cohen Organizations: Service, Defense, —, Washington DC, North, Bloomberg, Observatory, Getty, Forward Defense, Atlantic Council, NATO, Sydney Morning Herald, RAND Corporation, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Locations: East Asia, East, Russia, — Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Taiwan, Europe, Asia, Ukraine, Pyongyang, United States, Stockholm

☆ North Korea is blowing stuff up and making threats, but it's unlikely to go further
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Hannah Abraham | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

North Korea destroyed parts of roads and rail lines connecting it with South Korea. It comes after North Korea last week accused South Korea of flying drones over its capital. In response, South Korea fired warning shots within its own border, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. The detonations come after North Korea last week accused South Korea of flying drones over its capital Pyongyang. Howell added that historically, North Korea has stepped up provocations during US election years.

Persons: —, Jim Hoare, Kim Jong, Kim Yo Jong, Edward Howell, Howell, ", Hoare, Peter Ward Organizations: North, Service, South Korea's, Chiefs, Staff, Inter, Korean, Office, Bloomberg, Korea, Chatham House, Bloomberg Economics, Sejong Institute, Financial Times Locations: Korea, South Korea, North Korea, South, British, Kaesong, Korean, Pyongyang, North, Seoul

☆ Beware of 'seismic shocks' to the US economy and inflation if this specific election outcome occurs, according to a top mind at Bloomberg Economics
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. AdvertisementOne election result may cause 'seismic shocks'Partisans are convinced that this election is the most important ever, as they always are. The market isn't convinced, judging by where the VIX is trading just a month away from election day. "Let's think about a world where Trump gets into power and poses a 60% tariff on China," Orlik said.

Persons: there's, Tom Orlik, —, Tim Walz, JD Vance, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, shouldn't, who'd, Nancy Davis, Davis, Tanvir Sandhu, Sandhu, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Orlik, Trump's, Murphy isn't, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, White, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Intelligence, Traders, Biden, Nvidia, Qualcomm Locations: Susquehanna, China

☆ Biden approved Taiwan's biggest security package yet. China says the military aid won't deter it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Hannah Abraham | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden on Sunday approved $567 million in defense aid for Taiwan. It is the largest aid package that US has ever sent to Taiwan. AdvertisementPresident Joe Biden on Sunday said the US will send Taiwan its largest-ever security package amid rising tensions with China. Spotting Chinese attackThe scale of Chinese military activity around Taiwan is believed to be getting larger, as previously reported by Business Insider. Rather than Biden has repeatedly suggested the US would respond militarily if China declared war on Taiwan.

Persons: Joe Biden, —, Lin Jian, Lin, Xi Jinping, Phil Davidson, Samuel Paparo, Wellington Koo, Rather, Biden, Tom Porter, Jim Hoare, Hoare Organizations: Service, Sunday, Department of Defense, White, Taiwan, Communists, Business, Financial Times, Bloomberg Locations: Taiwan, China, States, British

☆ Bloomberg's chief economist shares why there's a 70% chance the US economy is recession-bound — and warns a stock-market sell-off could sink consumer spending
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThere's a 70% chance the US economy is either in a recession or headed toward one in the months ahead, according to Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong. The one that stands out most to Wong is the much-talked-about sustained rise in the unemployment rate. "Initially, in all the recessions, this is how the unemployment rate tends to rise," she said. Another key metric economists watch to judge whether the economy is in recession is consumer spending, which makes up around two-thirds of GDP in the US. LendingTreeWong believes wealthier Americans are spending due to the wealth effect, where high asset prices boost consumer confidence and fuel spending.

Persons: —, Anna Wong, Wong, Louis Fed, Louis Fed Wong, LendingTree Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Fed Locations: St

☆ Russia saw its oil revenue double in April despite Western sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's oil revenue soared by 90% in April compared to the previous year, Bloomberg reported. The rise comes as sanctions have struggled to curb Russian energy flows since the war in Ukraine began. AdvertisementThe major funding sources for Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine — the country's oil and gas revenues —doubled in April despite sanctions. Bloomberg data also indicates Moscow will see approximately $126 billion in oil and gas tax revenue in 2024. That said, Bloomberg reported that April's oil and gas revenue to Russia's budget still dropped by about 6.4% compared to March, primarily due to substantial subsidies to the nation's fuel producers.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin's, Bloomberg Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Russia's Federal Tax Service, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Ukraine, Russia's, Russia, Moscow, China, India, Persian

☆ Trump’s bombardment of dishonesty: Fact-checking 32 of his false claims to Time
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Daniel Dale | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +43 min

We’re paying for close to 100% of NATO.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. They don’t pay their bills.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. (It rose to about $314 billion in 2020, Trump’s last full year in office.) Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. Facts First: Trump’s claim that “nobody died other than Ashli” is false.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, “, William Barr, Bill Barr, Barr, Bill, I’m, ”, it’s, Biden, Joe Biden, Tamar Hermann, Hermann, Bill Clinton, “ Trump, ” Trump, …, National Guard Trump, I’ve, George Floyd, Tim Walz, Walz, Paul —, –, Erwan, George Washington, “ don’t, they’re, Stoltenberg, Trump’s, Lagadec, Marc Lipsitch, Barack Obama, European Union won’t, Cortellessa, “ Moody’s, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, Zandi, ’ ” Zandi, Joe Biden’s, rioter Ashli Babbitt, Brian Sicknick, Sicknick, Trump’s ‘, patriotically, ‘, patriotically ’, ” Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi, “ Nancy Pelosi, Pelosi, Christopher Miller, Miller, Eric Cortellessa, Alvin Bragg’s, Bragg, Matthew Colangelo, Colangelo, Alvin Bragg, ” Cortellessa, Hillary Clinton, —, Roe, Wade, Kimberly Mutcherson, “ Donald Trump’s, Maya Manian, Mary Ziegler, Davis, Ziegler, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Roe should’ve, ’, Crime Biden, don’t, “ Biden, he’s, James Biden, Jeff Asher, Asher, It’s, ” “, ” Asher Organizations: Washington CNN, Time, Trump, NATO, Capitol, Trump’s, Trade Center, didn’t, World Trade Center, Department, ISIS, CNN, Democratic, White House, White, South Korea Trump, Pentagon’s Defense Manpower Data, Biden Administration, Congressional Research Service, Israel, Israeli Democracy Institute, National Guard, Minnesota Democratic Gov, Minnesota National Guard, Guard, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, Transatlantic, for Disease Control, World Bank, Washington Post, Harvard, Harvard’s, National, Trump -, of Health, Human Services, Strategic, Biden, U.S . International Trade Commission, European, Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, European Union, US, European Automobile Manufacturers ’ Association, Bloomberg Economics, US Capitol Police, Capitol Police, “, Republican, Democratic Rep, National Guardsmen, District of Columbia National Guard, Army, Capitol Police Board, Senate, Justice Department, Pulitzer Foundation, Pulitzer, New York Times, Electoral, Democrat, ” Rutgers Law, American University, university’s Health, University of California, ”, Customs, Border Protection, Crime, Manchurian, Republicans, FBI Locations: “, New York City, Saudi, Florida, al Qaeda, New York, Texas, Mexico, South Korea, Trump , South Korea, South, Korea, Israel, Washington, Trump , Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Trump, Minnesota, St, United States, Germany, Brussels, Belgium, Harvard University, China, EU, DC, Trump’s, ”, York, Manhattan, York’s, Russia, That’s

☆ The Taiwan earthquake puts the vulnerability of the world's biggest chipmaker on full display
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The 7.2-magnitude earthquake shows the vulnerability of TSMC, the world's top chipmaker, to natural or geopolitical events. AdvertisementTaiwan experienced its worst earthquake in 25 years on Wednesday morning, disrupting the operations of companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC. It's the world's largest chipmaker and is, by some estimates, the producer of 90% of the world's most advanced processor chips. Overall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecast. April 3, 6:41 p.m. SGT: An earlier version of this story misstated the magnitude of the earthquake that struck Taiwan.

Persons: —, TSMC Organizations: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Service, Bloomberg, — Bloomberg, Taiwan Stock Exchange Locations: Arizona, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Hsinchu, Beijing, Washington, China

☆ Putin wants to crack down on immigration after the Moscow attack. That would make the nation's labor shortage even worse.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Russia is looking to crack down on migrants after the terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall. But those measures could end up harming its economy, because there's already a shortage of available workers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRussia's immigration crackdown could end up delivering another serious blow to its economy, with the nation already suffering from a severe shortage of workers.

Persons: there's, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: Russia, Moscow

☆ Russia is eyeing big tax hikes after this month's election to pay for the war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Putin could raise taxes on high earners and companies after the country's election, Bloomberg reported. More tax revenue would pay for the war in Ukraine and fund some social programs. AdvertisementVladimir Putin could raise taxes after the presidential election this month to keep the money flowing to pay for the country's war in Ukraine. Russia's hefty spending on the Ukraine war since February 2022 is siphoning resources from the broader economy, with a 7.4% inflation rate and collapsing direct investment. Economists have warned that the country's economy cannot sustain the costs of either winning or losing the war in Ukraine.

Persons: Putin, —, Vladimir Putin, outflows Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bloomberg Economics, Kremlin, Finance Ministry Locations: Ukraine, Russian

☆ How Russia has avoided bankrupting itself after 2 years of waging war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

1: By waging war outside its own bordersOne critical reason Russia's economy is still ticking is because of the location of the war. AdvertisementConsider the impact of the war on the economies of both Russia and Ukraine. In 2022, the first year of the war, Russia's economy contracted 1.2%, according to official statistics. Russia was facing a demographic crisis with a declining population and falling fertility rate even before its war with Ukraine. 4: By stimulating and steadying its economy with subsidies and policiesGovernment subsidies, spending, and policies are also propping up Russia's economy.

Persons: —, Hassan Malik, Loomis Sayles, it's, Malik, Vladimir Putin's, Sergei Guriev, Malik isn't, Alex Isakov, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters, US, Exchange, European Bank for Reconstruction, Bloomberg Economics, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Locations: Russia, Moscow, Boston, Crimea, Ukraine, Russian, China, India, Austrian

☆ The Federal Reserve is fed up with data revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said large revisions in data are tainting his assessments of how the economy is doing. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesThat’s well above the average month-over-month revised change in job totals from 1973 to the latest available revision data, according to the BLS. The official summary of what Fed officials said and discussed during their September meeting — also known as the Fed minutes — stated: “A few participants observed that there were challenges in assessing the state of the economy because some data continued to be volatile and subject to large revisions.”Spokespeople from the Federal Reserve declined to answer which data Fed officials were referring to. Frequent and large revisions to economic data are weighing on Federal Reserve decision-making, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “We want to be data dependent, but not data point dependent,” Williams said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, it’s, Al Drago, ” Waller, ”, Michelle Bowman, —, Spokespeople, he’s, don’t, Erica Groshen, David Wilcox, Laura Kelter, Kelter, Groshen, Wilcox, John Williams, ” Williams, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, ”, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Fed, Ohio Bankers League, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Department, Census, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Employment, CNN, Wilcox . New York Fed Locations: New York, Wilcox . New

☆ Russia has burned through almost half of the liquid reserves in its national wealth fund as it bleeds money amid the war in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewThe stash of liquid assets in Russia's national wealth fund has fallen over 44% since Moscow invaded Ukraine, according to a Bloomberg report of Russian finance ministry data on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the national wealth fund's total holdings tumbled 12% over the same period. The massive slump in the national wealth fund's liquid assets came as its holdings in Russian companies and in infrastructure bonds surged by 2 trillion rubles, per Bloomberg calculations. AdvertisementRussia's finance ministry also used around 3 trillion rubles from the fund to cover its budget deficit in 2023 after it doubled defense spending in the same period. Alex Isakov, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said Russia's national wealth fund's liquid assets will last for another year or two if the country's oil export prices fall below $50 a barrel.

Persons: —, Alex Isakov Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, National, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Russia's, Israel

☆ A war over Taiwan would be even more damaging to the US economy than COVID was, Bloomberg forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A war over Taiwan could wipe out 6.7% from the US economy in its first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. AdvertisementThe US economy could take a major hit if war breaks out over Taiwan, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis published on Tuesday. US GDP could take a 6.7% hit in the first year of conflict if Washington gets drawn into the war, Bloomberg forecasts. AdvertisementOverall, a war over Taiwan could hit the world's economy to the tune of $10 trillion — or about 10% of global GDP — Bloomberg forecasts. Bloomberg Economics' analysis is based on geopolitical considerations and economic modeling.

Persons: —, Xi Jinping, William Lai Ching, Lai, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Democratic Progressive Party, Mizuho Bank Locations: Taiwan, China, Washington, South Korea, Japan, Beijing, Asia

☆ Target CEO signals a halt to revenge spending and delays in impulse buys
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Dominick Reuter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementTarget's CEO said Wednesday that customers are continuing to make more tradeoffs in their family budgets and delay some spending. The lower price-points are meant to inspire more of the unplanned purchases that make a Target run a Target run. "This year, we've seen more and more consumers delaying their spending until the last moment," Cornell said. "It all puts pressure on discretionary spending."

Persons: —, Brian Cornell, Christina Hennington, we've, Cornell, Anna Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Target

☆ Taylor Swift achieves billionaire status amid monumental Eras tour
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | Sebastian Cahill | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Taylor Swift is a billionaire, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. The pop star's record-breaking Eras Tour helped cement her status among a rare economic class, according to the analysis. Swift is one of the few people to reach billionaire status almost exclusively from her music. AdvertisementAdvertisementAfter nearly two decades of monumental music-making, Taylor Swift has officially built a billion-dollar empire, according to a Bloomberg News analysis published Thursday. Swift is one of the few people to reach billionaire status almost exclusively from her music and performances, the outlet reported, citing publicly disclosed and traceable assets and earnings.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Swift, —, Sam Bankman, Fried's, Larry David, Shaquille O'Neal Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bloomberg Economics, Forbes, Dassault

☆ A bigger war in Israel would send oil prices skyrocketing and hurt the economy's chances of avoiding a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The impact on oil prices would be enormous with one prediction of $150 per barrel. A surge in oil prices could undo the fight against inflation and cause prices to soar again. International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva expressed concern on Thursday over how global oil markets would be impacted by the war. If that were to happen, they predict that oil prices would skyrocket more than 70% to $150 per barrel from just under $90 we have now. An estimated 20-30% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran.

Persons: —, Kristalina Georgieva, Steven Mnuchin, That's, Mnuchin, Mustafa Hassona, there's, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie Organizations: Service, Hamas, Monetary Fund, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg, US, Fox Business, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Biden, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Israel, Iran, Hormuz, Iraq, Kuwait, Abu Nasr, Gaza City, Ukraine, Washington ,, Xinhua

☆ Taylor Swift gives the US economy another boost as "The Eras Tour" film breaks box-office records on its opening weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" broke a concert-film box-office record on its opening weekend. The movie pulled in $95 million to $97 million worth of ticket sales, AMC Theatres said. Swift’s tour has given the US economy a big boost in 2023, with even the Federal Reserve noticing its impact. "The Eras Tour" could also break records for the strongest October debut for any film. Its currently neck-and-neck with "Joker", which pulled in $96.2 million worth of ticket sales on its opening weekend back in 2019.

Persons: Taylor Swift, —, Justin Bieber's Organizations: AMC Theatres, Reserve, Service, Federal, Bloomberg Economics, AMC, Hollywood Locations: Philadelphia, Monday's premarket

☆ Taylor Swift, 'Barbenheimer' and Beyoncé all likely fueled a US growth surge last quarter, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

He said Taylor Swift, "Barbenheimer", and Beyoncé had all helped drive growth. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy likely surged over the third quarter – and you can thank Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and the "Barbenheimer" craze for that, according to ING. "We can't argue against [the latest payroll numbers] given the strength we will likely see in third-quarter GDP," he said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"We wouldn't be surprised to see a 4% annualized expansion with Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Barbenheimer helping to give growth a kick higher," Knightley added. Eras and Beyoncé's "Renaissance World Tour" are expected to add a combined $5.4 billion to the US's third-quarter GDP, according to an estimate from Bloomberg Economics.

Persons: James Knightley, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, —, September's, Knightley, Oppenheimer Organizations: ING, Service, Gross, Product, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Philadelphia

☆ The US economy is extremely fragile right now and could tip into a recession within months, according to a new model
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.

Persons: —, Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich

☆ Impact of 'funflation' to continue beyond Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, says Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Bank of America predicts people will continue to spend big on live entertainment. AdvertisementAdvertisementMaybe the epic summer of Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and "Barbenheimer" was just the beginning and not just a one-off outlier. On the surface, this contradicts some earlier warnings that while entertainment spending did prop up the economy, it would be fleeting. Bank of America did warn in its report that there is some risk in betting on "funflation" to continue. But if Bank of America's predictions are correct, the economy may feel the effects of entertainment spending despite the diminished sparkle of the performers.

Persons: Taylor Swift, —, Beyoncé, Kevin Mazur, Grace Smith, Swift Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Force, Bloomberg, MediaNews, Denver, Getty, Bloomberg Economics Locations: Stockholm, Denver, Swift

☆ Hot girl summer is about to come to a crashing halt, and winter is coming for women
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Emily Canal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

This year's hot girl summer was led by the women who propped up the US economy. The aid has been funding childcare for the past two years, which helps keep many moms working. The study polled 3,661 women and 1,144 men between November 19, 2020, and December 17, 2020. Simultaneously, if childcare centers closed, working women would bear the brunt — in a 2020 report, the National Women's Law Center found that 95% of childcare workers were women . AdvertisementAdvertisementParents, experts, and lawmakers have previously told Insider how vital childcare is to working parents.

Persons: Taylor Swift, Barbie, Christopher Nolan's, Oppenheimer, doesn't, Annie E, Lisa Hamilton, who've, Sen, Patty Murray Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, of Labor Statistics, American, Century Foundation, Labor Department, Family Foundation, National Women's Law Center, Casey Foundation Locations: Wall, Silicon, America, it's

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