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What happens to stocks during election week? In general, the market has a slightly bullish bent during election week, but you can slice it different ways. The average percentage change for the S & P 500 in the week of the election is up 0.7%, with the index gaining 63% of the time, according to Birinyi Associates. That is why the S & P 500 is only 2% below its historic high. S & P 500 earnings estimates Q3: +8.4% Oct. 1: +6.0% Q4: +10.7% Technology: +14.6% Source: LSE Seasonals are important as well The seasonal trend is very strong.
Persons: Phil Mackintosh, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Birinyi Associates, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, LSE
President Biden wants to increase the taxes on those buybacks. Corporations prefer stock buybacks Corporate America has wide latitude on what it does with the cash flow it generates. Excess cash will typically fall into three buckets: buybacks, dividends and capital expenditures. Capital expenditures $597 b. "However, if economic growth momentum instead continues to build, investors may begin to increasingly reward companies that are investing for growth," Goldman said.
Persons: Biden, Goldman Sachs Jeffrey Yale Rubin, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Tesla, Meta, Biden's, Howard Silverblatt, Silverblatt Organizations: America, buybacks, Birinyi, P Global Locations: buybacks, America
His wife, Jill Costelloe Birinyi, said the cause was chronic heart failure. Mr. Birinyi (pronounced BUH-ree-nee), a former equities analyst at Salomon Brothers who founded his own money management firm in Westport, Conn., argued that the market had not only a history but also a “psychology,” and he used this insight as the basis for his market predictions. The public began to sense that Mr. Birinyi was onto something in the 1990s. As a frequent guest of “Wall Street Week,” a popular show on PBS (and, briefly, CNBC) hosted by Louis Rukeyser, Mr. Birinyi again and again won an annual stock-picking competition among panelists. From 1993 to 1998, his average annual return was 44 percent, against a 19.8 percent average annual rise by the Dow Jones industrials.
Persons: Laszlo Birinyi, , , Jill Costelloe Birinyi, Birinyi, Salomon, Louis Rukeyser, Dow Jones industrials Organizations: Salomon Brothers, PBS, CNBC, Dow Locations: Southport, Conn, Westport
The S & P ended at 4,372, exactly where it was at 2 PM when the Fed made its announcement. In English: I am not saying a soft landing is happening, but we could make it. The stock market certainly believes in the soft landing. The S & P is up nearly 5% this month alone on a belief the job market will remain strong and the Fed is done. But the S & P is up over 500 points (more than 13%) since bottoming at 3,855 on March 13th.
Persons: Jeff Gundlach, doesn't, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jeffrey Yale Rubin, FOMO Organizations: Fed, Powell, Bulls, Birinyi Associates, American, of, Bears
Luxury stocks are on a tear, and they are pulling away from the other 99% of the world. Birinyi Associates sees an opportunity. LVMH is the largest luxury firm in the world. Rubin and Birinyi have created two new indexes to monitor all this money: the "1% Index" that consists of 16 luxury stocks, and the "99% Index" made up of 18 stocks that is, well, where the rest of us shops. Since the beginning of April, the 99% is making a comeback: The 1% vs. the 99% (since April 1) 1% index: + 3% 99% index: + 12% Source: Birinyi Associates What's happening?
Dividend Stocks Have New Competition: Cash
  + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Charley Grant | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
AT&T cut its dividend last year when it divested the WarnerMedia division. Stocks used to be the only game in town for investors chasing robust returns. Soaring inflation has pushed government-bond yields to their highest levels in more than a decade. That, coupled with a soggy stock market, has led to a steady decline in the number of stocks that offer comparatively high yields: There were just 34 stocks in the S&P 500 with a dividend yield above that on the six-month Treasury bill as of Friday, according to Birinyi Associates. The six-month yield settled at 5.116%, according to Dow Jones Market Data
Amazing start to the year for stocks, but there are warning signs. "In seven of the ten other instances [where the S & P was up at least 7% by Feb. 2nd], the S & P continued higher for the remainder of the year," according to Jeffrey Yale Rubin, director of research at Birinyi. In eight of the 10 years where the S & P was up at least 7% by Feb. 2nd, the S & P moved at least 10% in the remainder of the year, according to Rubin. It is fairly unusual for major indexes like the Nasdaq and S & P 500 to go into overbought territory. while tech stocks have been heavily bought (the Nasdaq-100, a barometer of tech interest, is up 17% year to date).
Investors also like returning capital, and that $40 billion share buyback announcement certainly fit into that category. With a market cap of $407 billion, that $40 billion is about 10% of the market value. And that is on top of the $10.97 billion buyback that Meta has left from a prior authorization. That $40 billion is not as big as Chevron's $75 billion buyback , but it is enough to start the first quarter of 2023 with a bang. Oddly, we have had heard nothing from politicians in Washington about the Meta buyback .
Amid the tough backdrop, Minerd shared two areas where he thinks investors can find return. "That's a much better place to go with your money than the stock market," Minerd said. "If you look at defense stocks year-to-date, they're generally high. And so I think there's a lot more upside in defense stocks, both relatively in the short run and in the next five years." Funds like the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) and the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) offer diversified exposure to defense stocks.
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