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He's also outperformed the S&P 500 over that time by returning 14% per year on average versus the index's 13.8% annualized gains. Between July and September 1999, Buffett shared his outlook for the market in a series of talks that were summarized by Fortune's Carol Loomis in November of that year. AdvertisementSince then, however, investors have enjoyed 15 years of ultra-low interest rates and growing corporate profits — a fact that has Smead worried. "The only problem is it's a curse on long-term S&P 500 performance," Smead said of the 15-year run. Related storiesBaked into Smead's outlook is an against-consensus view that inflation is set to surge again as the Fed cuts interest rates.
Persons: , Bill Smead, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Smead, Munger, He's, Buffett, Fortune's Carol Loomis Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Apple, Bank of America
Yes, the S&P 500 is just off of all-time highs following a 36% percent rally from October to July. Major stock prices begin to perform poorly, which drags down the S&P 500 Index, which in turn causes the selling of the index. The index selling puts a drag on the largest-cap stocks, which adds more legs to the index selling." The S&P 500 is up 49% since late 2022 as bears have continued to warn of downside. AdvertisementSecond, lower interest rates would spark demand and could cause inflation to resurface, which would be good for oil stocks, Smead said.
Persons: , Smead doesn't, Smead, Warren, We're, Dow, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, Stocks, LEN Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Smead, Bank of America, Technology, Fund, Federal, Fed, DR, Occidental Petroleum, Apache
Bill Smead warns of poor long-term performance for stock indexes like the S&P 500. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Smead doesn't like the long-term outlook for big stock-market indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Despite their recent resilience and rallies to new highs, he said he sees a few red flags that could lead to poor performance for the broader market ahead.
Persons: Bill Smead, , Morningstar Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Business
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. economy 'relatively strong' in coming years, Bill Smead saysBill Smead, CIO at Smead Capital Management, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and inflation.
Persons: Bill Smead Organizations: U.S, Smead Capital Management Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWarren Buffett is now 'as bearish as he ever gets,' says Bill SmeadBill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to share his reactions to Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting over the weekend.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Bill Smead Bill Smead Organizations: Smead Capital Management, Berkshire Hathaway's Locations: Berkshire
From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."
Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise
In today's big story, we're doing a deep dive into the golf tournament at one of the most exclusive clubs in the world . Mike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesHarvard University alumni, Goldman Sachs partners, Birkin bag owners — those exclusive groups are nothing compared to an Augusta National Golf Course membership. The Masters Tournament, the first of four men's major golf tournaments, kicks off today , write Business Insider's Madeline Berg and Taylor Rains. Since it's almost impossible to check out Augusta National otherwise, the Masters has become a staple of the billionaire's social calendar. Augusta National runs a lottery system for them.
Persons: , Mike Ehrmann, Goldman Sachs, Birkin, Madeline Berg, Taylor, it's, Cork Gaines, aren't, Joe Ciolli, didn't, Chelsea Jia Feng, Bill Smead, Brad Porter, Elon Musk's, Y, Paul Graham, Alyssa Powell, Larry Ellison, David Ellison, Larry Ellison's, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images Harvard University, Augusta, Waste, bros, Augusta National, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Robotics, Amazon Robotics, xAI, Paramount, Oracle, Google, JPMorgan, SpaceX Locations: Augusta, swag, Chelsea, D.E, Shaw's Valence, New York, London
In a note on Tuesday, Smead shared the secrets to his success via four guiding principles for outperforming the market. What is worse, losing $30 per share or the sin of omission by missing the next $120 gain per share?" "Our optimism for companies goes up as the price goes down when it fits our eight criteria for stock selection," Smead said. 7 stocks Smead is betting on nowIn the note, Smead listed seven companies he owns that fit these criteria: oil firms Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and ConocoPhillips (COP); homebuilders D.R. We believe that 100% of the people who pick stocks for a living think they will be above average," Smead said.
Persons: Bill Smead, Cole, He's, Smead, D.R, Horton, LEN Organizations: Smead Capital Management, Morningstar, Bank of America, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Merck, US
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy prices will go 'way higher' despite transition to EVs: Bill SmeadBill Smead, Smead Capital Management CIO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss how to position in energy, the current geopolitical impacts on the oil industry, and more.
Persons: Bill Smead Bill Smead Organizations: Smead Capital Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBerkshire has changed and is built to last, says Glenview Trust Company's Bill StoneBill Stone, CIO at Glenview Trust Company, and Bill Smead, CIO at Smead Capital Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the legacy of Charlie Munger, the future of Berkshire, and more.
Persons: Bill Stone Bill Stone, Bill Smead, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire, Glenview Trust Company, Smead Capital Management Locations: Glenview, Berkshire
[1/4] Berkshire Hathaway Inc Vice Chairman Charles Munger speaks at the Daily Journal annual meeting in Los Angeles, U.S., February 15, 2017. Munger's death on Tuesday, five weeks shy of his 100th birthday, leaves Berkshire Vice Chairmen Greg Abel and Ajit Jain, who respectively oversee its non-insurance and insurance businesses, as the 93-year-old Buffett's top advisers and sounding boards. At the 2021 annual meeting, Jain was asked how he and Abel interact with each other. "You don’t need them to be as good as Buffett or Munger to make Berkshire a good company and arguably a great company." "It particularly doesn't feel like an annual meeting because my partner of 60 years, Charlie Munger, is not sitting up here," Buffett said.
Persons: Charles Munger, Lucy Nicholson, Berkshire, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Munger, Munger's, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Abel, Jain, Warren, Charlie, Bill Stone, Howard Buffett, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Bill Smead, Whitney Tilson, Munger didn't, Jonathan Stempel, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Stephen Coates Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, Daily, REUTERS, Berkshire Hathaway's, Berkshire, BNSF, Investors, Glenview Trust, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, University of Alberta, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Energy, MidAmerican's, Apple, Smead Capital Management, Kase Capital, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , U.S, Berkshire, Omaha , Nebraska, Munger, Glenview, Edmonton, Alberta, Indian, Odisha, Phoenix, Woodstock, Omaha, New York
Watch CNBC's full interview with Bill Stone and Bill Smead
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bill Stone and Bill SmeadBill Stone, CIO at Glenview Trust Company, and Bill Smead, CIO at Smead Capital Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the legacy of Charlie Munger, the future of Berkshire, and more.
Persons: Bill Stone, Bill Smead Bill Stone, Bill Smead, Charlie Munger Organizations: Glenview Trust Company, Smead Capital Management Locations: Berkshire
Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger dies at 99
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +12 min
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Charlie Munger, the longtime vice chairman and second-in-command to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), died on Tuesday morning at a California hospital. For stock-pickers like us to lose Charlie Munger, would be like if you’re a basketball fan and you lose Bill Russell. "I wouldn't think Berkshire will look much different, apart from Buffett no longer being able to share ideas with Munger. CATHERINE SEIFERT, VICE-PRESIDENT, CFRA RESEARCH, NEW YORK“Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are not going to be directly or negatively impacted from the passing of Charlie Munger. Therewass already a transition plan in place and there's a transition plan in place when Warren Buffett passes away.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Charlie, WHITNEY TILSON, BRIAN MOYNIHAN, Charlie Mungerwass, ” BURNS MCKINNEY, Bill Russell, , Berkshire Hathaway, ” PHIL ORLANDO, FEDERATED HERMES, BILL, Buffett, Munger, PHILLIP, , STEVE SOSNICK, , ” WIN MURRAY, DIAMOND, MARY JO, BILL SMEAD, Warren, ” “ Buffett, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, ” PAUL LOUNTZIS, Greg Abel, I've, you'll, STEPHEN DODSON, hewass, ” PAUL NOLTE, FOR MURPHY, Warren Buffet, they've, QUINCY KROSBY, RICK MECKLER, CHERRY, NEW VERNON, Hewass, obviouslywass, DOUG KASS, ” THOMAS RUSSO, GARDNER RUSSO, QUINN, CATHERINE SEIFERT, he's, ” ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, THOMAS HAYES Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, COOK, APPLE, WHO, KASE, OF, FEDERATED, Berkshire, ” WIN, THE BRETTON, SAN, SYLVEST, NEW, Buffett, GREAT, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: California, Munger, Berkshire, American, DALLAS , TEXAS, GLENVIEW, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, DIAMOND HILL, COLUMBUS , OHIO, PHOENIX, ” “ Berkshire, , PENNSYLVANIA, ELMHURST, IL, CHARLOTTE, NC, CHERRY LANE, NEW JERSEY, LANCASTER , PENNSYLVANIA, Munger . Berkshire, TROY , MICHIGAN, GREAT HILL
In today's big story, we're looking at why the market might be on the cusp of a once-in-a-generation investing moment (but not with the names you're familiar with). The big storyUnder the radarA trader looks at market charts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 18, 2023. Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty ImagesWhen it comes to the stock market, the real value is in the crumbs. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch views the chance to get in on less-glamorous stocks as a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity. The end of the AI market boon.
Persons: , Stanley, Angela Weiss, Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch, Insider's Jennifer Sor, Bernstein, Jennifer, Brendan McDermid, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's, Munger, there's, Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Smead, Smead, Kendrick Lamar's, Rishi Sunak, Linda Yaccarino, Hitler, Elon Musk, carles miro, Getty, Tyler Le, Gen Zers, Zers, Donald Trump, OpenAI, OpenAI DevDay, Adolphe Sax, Martha Stewart, Lexie Moreland, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Bank of America, REUTERS, Elon, AI, Trump, Trump Organization, OpenAI Locations: Victoria, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
The AI-fueled boom in the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks has propped up the stock market this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementSmead emphasized the Magnificent Seven are "the only thing keeping the rally in the S&P 500 index alive this year." He included a chart showing the 10 largest S&P 500 stocks by market cap have accounted for an unprecedented 96% of the index's performance for 2023. "AI looks like tech stock and S&P 500 index life support to us," Smead said. "What happens if the seven stocks that have propped up the passive S&P 500 Index go through what every stock of popularity has done historically?
Persons: Bill Smead, , Smead, Watson Organizations: Service, Smead Capital Management, Big Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Department, Federal
Third quarter sales of Horizon's gout drug Krystexxa rose to $253 million from $192 million. Amgen raised its post-acquisition forecast for full-year sales to between $28 billion and $28.4 billion from a previous estimate of $26.6 billion to $27.4 billion. Total revenue for the quarter rose 4% to $6.9 billion, in line with analyst expectations. Sales of cancer drug Lumakras fell 31% to $52 million and sales of psoriasis drug Otezla fell 10% to $567 million. Sales of Amjevita, Amgen's new biosimilar version of AbbVie's (ABBV.N) blockbuster arthritis drug Humira, rose 30% to $152 million.
Persons: Robert Galbraith, Amgen, Jefferies, Michael Yee, Bill Smead, Tepezza, We're, we've, Peter Griffith, AMG340, William Blair, Matt Phipps, Lumakras, Otezla, Deena Beasley, Leroy Leo, Bill Berkrot Organizations: REUTERS, Horizon Therapeutics, Smead Capital Management, Wall Street, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Thomson Locations: South San Francisco , California, California, Los Angeles, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReal assets and labor are winners of the next 10 years, says Smead Value Fund's Bill SmeadBill Smead, Smead Value Fund portfolio manager, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Exxon Mobil's Pioneer deal, his energy and real estate holdings, and more.
Persons: Smead Bill Smead Organizations: Exxon Mobil's Pioneer
In the last four years energy investors have dumped stocks in oil companies that boost capital spending, favoring higher returns over spending on costly, long-term new projects. But Exxon shares last month hit a record high of $120, lifted by returns on its oil, gas and refining businesses. 2 Permian shale oil producer, for $60 billion, signals it is ready to pay up for production after missing its own output targets in the Permian. A deal would bring Exxon to about 1.33 million barrels of oil and gas per day, the largest in the oilfield. It has good reserves, growing production, spending in check and debt at healthy levels, he said.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Exxon Mobil's, Bill Smead, Vince Lorusso, Lorusso, Shale Research Alexandre Ramos, Kathryn Mikells, Bass, Scott Hanold, Matthew Bernstein, Sabrina Valle, Anna Driver, Diane Craft Organizations: Exxon Mobil Corporation, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Exxon, Natural Resources, Smead Capital Management, Clough Capital Partners, Management, Shale Research, XTO Energy, RBC Capital Markets, ExxonMobil, Rystad Energy, Thomson Locations: New York, Ukraine, U.S, Americas, Guyana
The logo of Exxon Mobil Corporation is shown on a monitor above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, December 30, 2015. A deal would be Exxon's biggest acquisition since its $81 billion deal for Mobil in 1998 and could deepen the oil major's position in the country's most lucrative oil patch. Following are the comments on the likely deal. BILL SMEAD, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SMEAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT"I can't imagine any deal is going to go for less than $65 billion, considering Pioneer is currently trading around $50 billion . I mean there's no question the position of that magnitude or size would give them considerable leverage in negotiating or contracts with the service providers."
Persons: Lucas Jackson, BILL SMEAD, PETER MCNALLY, Scott Sheffield, SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, BEN COOK, HENNESSY, NEAL DINGMANN, Arunima Kumar, Sourasis Bose, Sabrina Valle, Raphael Satter, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Exxon Mobil Corporation, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Mobil, RBC, RHODE, Exxon, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Bengaluru, Houston
Exxon Mobil logo and stock graph are seen through a magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. Exxon shares were down 1.6%Friday's gains leave the stock short of the offer, as it is possible that the two companies will not reach an agreement. If the negotiations conclude successfully, an agreement between Exxon and Pioneer could be reached in the coming days, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing three sources. "Pioneer is the Permian's largest operator at 9% of gross production while Exxon is No. Combined amounts to 15% of operated Permian production, but only 6% of total US production.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Andrew Dittmar, Enverus, Scott Hanold, Bill Smead, Mrinalika Roy, Sourasis Bose, Arunima Kumar, Sabrina Valle, Sriraj Organizations: Exxon Mobil, REUTERS, Natural Resources, Mobil, Reuters Graphics, Exxon, Pioneer, Reuters, RBC Capital, Smead Capital Management, Thomson, & $ Locations: Bengaluru, Houston
[1/2] The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. The acquisition would be Exxon's biggest since its $81 billion deal for Mobil in 1998 and would expand its footprint in one of the most lucrative regions of the U.S. oil patch. Pioneer, which had a market value as of Thursday of $50 billion, is the third-largest producer of oil in the Permian basin after Chevron Corp (CVX.N) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N). Exxon produced about 620,000 boed in the Permian basin in the second quarter, a record for the company. Chevron Corp (CVX.N), for example, agreed in May to acquire shale producer PDC Energy Inc in a stock-and-debt transaction worth $7.6 billion.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Bill Smead, Exxon, Scott Sheffield, Richard Dealy, David French, Anirban Sen, Sabrina Valle, Greg Roumeliotis, Lincoln, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Mobil, Chevron Corp, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Pioneer, Street Journal, Smead Capital Management, Energy Inc, DoublePoint Energy, Parsley Energy, Thomson Locations: Loving County , Texas, U.S, Texas, New Mexico, Ukraine, dealmaking, Dallas, New York, Houston
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPioneer Natural Resources stock soars amid deal report. Here's what the pros sayJim Cramer, Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners and Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management discussed Pioneer Natural Resources as the stock spiked following a report from the Wall Street Journal that Exxon Mobil is close to a deal to buy the shale-drilling company.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Joe Terranova, Bill Smead Organizations: Resources, Virtus Investment Partners, Smead Capital Management, Natural Resources, Wall Street Journal, Exxon Mobil
The logo of Exxon Mobil Corporation is shown on a monitor above the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, December 30, 2015. It would be Exxon's biggest acquisition since its $81 billion deal for Mobil in 1998 and could deepen the oil major's position in the country's most lucrative oil patch. MATTHEW BERNSTEIN, SENIOR SHALE ANALYST, RYSTAD ENERGY"If Exxon Mobil is crowned the undisputed king of the Permian in the coming days, the shale sector will fundamentally become a more mature consolidated business." "A deal the size of Exxon Mobil's potential acquisition of Pioneer, however, could usher in a new 'Shale 4.0' era ... BILL SMEAD, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF SMEAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT"I can't imagine any deal is going to go for less than $65 billion, considering Pioneer is currently trading around $50 billion .
Persons: Lucas Jackson, MATTHEW BERNSTEIN, MARK VIVIANO, Scott Sheffield, BILL SMEAD, PETER MCNALLY, SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, BEN COOK, HENNESSY, NEAL DINGMANN, Arunima Kumar, Sourasis Bose, Sabrina Valle, Raphael Satter, David French, Sriraj Kalluvila, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Exxon Mobil Corporation, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Mobil, Exxon, RBC, RHODE, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Bengaluru, Houston
[1/2] The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S. November 24, 2019. The acquisition would be Exxon's biggest since its $81 billion deal for Mobil in 1998 and would expand its footprint in one of the most lucrative regions of the U.S. oil patch. Pioneer, which had a market value as of Thursday of $50 billion, is the third-largest producer of oil in the Permian basin after Chevron Corp (CVX.N) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N). If the negotiations conclude successfully, an agreement between Exxon and Pioneer could be reached in the coming days, the three sources said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential. Exxon produced about 620,000 boed in the Permian basin in the second quarter, a record for the company.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Bill Smead, Exxon, Scott Sheffield, Richard Dealy, David French, Anirban Sen, Sabrina Valle, Greg Roumeliotis, Lincoln, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Mobil, Chevron Corp, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Pioneer, Street Journal, Smead Capital Management, Energy Inc, DoublePoint Energy, Parsley Energy, Thomson Locations: Loving County , Texas, U.S, Texas, New Mexico, Ukraine, dealmaking, Dallas, New York, Houston
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRestricting oil supply is only going to drive prices higher, says Smead Capital's Bill SmeadBill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Exxon's potential bid to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, environmentalist resistance to Exxon's expansion, and government effort to reduce oil growth.
Persons: Smead, Bill Smead Bill Smead Organizations: Smead Capital Management, Natural Resources
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