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☆ Powell's view is that policy is still restrictive and needs to be: Former New York Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's view is that policy is still restrictive and needs to be: Former New York Fed presidentBill Dudley, former New York Fed president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss core inflation's current level, the Fed's dual mandate, and what Dudley attributes the move in the 10-year yield to.

Persons: Bill Dudley, Dudley Organizations: New York Fed

☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The Fed has waited four years to cut rates. But it’s still a tough call
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

It’s also a sign of confidence from Fed officials that inflation has come under control just enough to comfortably dial back policy. Typically, in the lead-up to a Fed policy decision, Wall Street and economists are in alignment on what to expect. But investors’ wagers for a half-point cut ramped up on Monday; and as of Tuesday afternoon, federal funds futures contracts were pricing in a 63% chance of a jumbo rate cut, up from around 30% on Thursday, according to the CME Group. As inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, American employers pumped out jobs and the unemployment rate declined to half-century lows. The Fed eventually responded to the country’s inflation problem with its bitter medicine of high interest rates.

Persons: It’s, Christopher Waller, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Kaplan, Bill Dudley, ”, Powell, ” Gregory Daco, “, ” Julia Hermann Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Street, CME, Fed, Democratic, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Former New York, Bloomberg, Dow, Labor, New York Life Investments, CNN

But a series of data points showing worsening economic conditions has made some analysts believe a 0.5% cut is more likely — and perhaps even necessary. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech last month. “A (0.5%) cut is usually done in emergencies,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s financial group. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level since February 2023, while auto loan rates are also falling. A 0.5% cut would more directly affect rates tied to the fed funds rate, including credit cards, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans.

Persons: Steve Liesman, Jay Powell, Bill Dudley, ” Dudley, Preston Mui, Mui, ”, “, Mark Zandi, Greg McBride, ” McBride Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Wall, Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg News, Fed, Bankrate Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America

☆ Bitcoin is surging on hopes rate cuts will drive a speculative rush
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rise comes amid anticipation that the Fed will deliver a half-point rate cut. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve's long-awaited rate cut tomorrow, which will be announced at the end of the central bank's two-day policy meeting. Regardless of the size of the cut, investors buying up bitcoin are anticipating the looser lending conditions will lead to more speculative behavior. We could be seeing a recovery of investors' appetite for risk-on assets like crypto, instigating more flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs," said Leena ElDeeb, a research analyst at 21Shares. Seasonal factors weakened the spot bitcoin ETF inflows this summer while deteriorating macro conditions drove investors toward safe, risk-off assets.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Tuesday's, Leena ElDeeb, Alex Kuptsikevich, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, New York

☆ Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The American economy appears to be just hours away from a major milestone: The first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve since Covid. Yet there remains an unusual amount of drama over the magnitude of that rate cut, with some in Washington calling for a supersized move. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to slash interest rates at a pace rarely seen outside of a full-blown crisis. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. For instance, in early 2008 the Fed slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a point or more on three occasions.

Persons: Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell, Warren, “, ” Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, John Hickenlooper, Powell, Bill Dudley, “ dawdling, Dudley, ” Dudley, panicking, David Kelly, ” Kelly, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Massachusetts Democratic, Sens, Wall, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNN, Democrats, Asset Management Locations: New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Strong case for 50 basis point Fed rate cut, says former NY Fed chief Dudley
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States. Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States. "I think there's a strong case for 50, whether they're going to do it or not," he said at the Bretton Woods Committee's annual Future of Finance Forum in Singapore. He said rates were currently 150-200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate for the U.S. economy, where policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative. Dudley had previously called for the Fed to begin cutting in July.

Persons: Bill Dudley, Dudley Organizations: New York Federal, Former New York Federal, Bretton Woods, of Finance Forum, Fed Locations: United States, Singapore, U.S, Asia

But you're going to struggle if you're looking for a new one. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said. "What we need to see is strong private-sector labor market growth, and outside of health care, what we've seen instead is a very, very rapid deceleration that has shown no signs yet of stabilizing," Pollak said. Pollak also said leisure and hospitality jobs — a key entry point into the labor market — have actually declined outright in recent months, putting further pressure on workers to secure employment.

Persons: Guy Berger, Berger, Jerome Powell, Bill Dudley, Julia Pollak, Pollak, we've Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Glass, Federal, Fed, New York Federal, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, haves

☆ It may already be too late for the Fed to stop a recession, former central bank president says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.

Persons: —, Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley

☆ David Zervos: The key policy differences between Trump and Biden and what they mean for markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( David Zervos | Jefferies Chief Market Strategist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

By no means am I interested in tackling any impact policy differences may have upon non-market related subjects. Monetary policy So let's begin with monetary policy. Fiscal policy Now let's turn to fiscal policy. Trade policy Trade policy is easy. Regulatory policy Finally, the big kahuna, regulatory policy.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Clinton, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman —, Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell, Biden, Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson, Bill Dudley's, Covid, Trump, Cato, Stocks Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve, Fed, Trump Fed, Bloomberg, Democratic, Heritage, AEI, Biden Locations: China

☆ The Fed may have pumped so much money into the economy that it's now taking way longer to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Fed can keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price rises — although the central bank also has room to cut should the labor market "unexpectedly weaken," Powell added. Related storyHigher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for anything from mortgages to credit cards — it encourages people to save rather than spend, which in theory, helps bring down prices. AdvertisementConversely, lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending — thus driving the economy when growth slows, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed cut rates massively and pumped money into the system. But Reid thinks the excess money could be drained from the economy later this year, when money supply in the economy normalizes. AdvertisementDemand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus also contribute to inflationTo be sure, money supply isn't the only thing that contributes to inflation.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Reid, it's, Reid, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, Wilson Center, Business, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington, New York, Dudley

☆ Theory About the Fed, Inflation, and Rates That May Wreck the Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?

Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ The Fed has caused a recession every time it's tried to weaken the labor market, and a 'soft-landing' of the economy is unlikely, former New York Fed chief Bill Dudley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed has sparked a recession every time it's tries to tackle a hot labor market, former Fed official Bill Dudley said. Powell has repeatedly cited a tight labor market as to why interest rates need to remain restrictive. Dudley believes a soft-landing is unlikely, and a recession is looming in the medium-term. Prices are still well-above the Fed's 2% target, and the labor market is still hot, with the US adding a stunning 517,000 new jobs in January. That suggests the Fed needs to continue its efforts, despite having already hiked interest rates 450-basis-points to lower inflation.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Goldman Sachs isn't too worried about a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In their 2023 outlook, Goldman analysts noted that disagreement about the economic forecast abounds within their own circles. Bill Dudley, a former Goldman Sachs partner and president of the New York Fed, puts the chance of recession this year at about 70%. Goldman analysts say that even with a sour economy, they predict the 2023 investment return on the S&P 500 will most likely be between 9-12%. The Fed’s days of three-quarter-point rate hikes are behind us, said Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker in a blog post Friday. Better-than-expected price data shows that the Fed’s aggressive and economically painful rate hikes are successfully slowing the economy and fighting inflation, he said.

☆ Here's why investors can expect returns in the S&P 500 this year after 2022's stock market bloodbath.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This time last year, the S&P 500 was coming off its all-time closing high, which had arrived on 2022's first day of trading. It's only happened four times, but when the S&P 500 sees back-to-back losing years, the second is always worse. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 2, 2020. And if you look at Bank of America's Sell Side Indicator, a year in the green for the S&P 500 seems to be in the cards. Morgan Stanley just revamped a nine-stock list that's beaten the S&P 500 by 18% over time.

☆ The looming recession will stop short of a full-blown financial crisis because the Fed is still in control, ex-NY Fed chief Bill Dudley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A looming economic recession won't spiral into a full blown financial crisis, according to ex-NY Fed chief Bill Dudley. That's because the recession, which is "pretty likely" according to Dudley, will be induced by the Fed. "I think this is a recession where the Fed has the controls, when they need to ease they can do so," Dudley said. And if they manage to do that, the Fed can avoid a systematic financial crisis that leads to instability during the next recession. "I don't think that there's a big risk of a financial-instability cataclysm that pushes the economy into a deep recession," Dudley said.

A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.

☆ How much ‘pain’ is the Fed willing to inflict? Wednesday’s rate hike will offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.

☆ Premarket trading: It's getting late in the game. Will the Fed risk a Hail Mary?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Markets plummeted as the report stoked fears that the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell would decide to hike rates more aggressively, inflicting serious economic pain. Investors are putting the odds of a three-quarter percentage point hike next week at 75%, according to CME FedWatch data. The odds for a full point hike are hovering around 25% in the wake of the inflation report, up from 0% one week ago. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. “I wouldn’t discount a 100 basis point rate hike,” Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street, told me.

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