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September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.
Persons: September's, , Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI
Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped. On the economic data front, job openings rose unexpectedly in August. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets.
Persons: , Helima Croft, Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams Organizations: Treasury, Service, Traders, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Global, LPL, Labor, Comerica Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon
The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."
Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps
US stocks traded mixed as traders reacted to a mixed inflation report. Core consumer prices rose more than expected, reducing chances of a 50 basis-point rate cut. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with investors staging a recovery after taking in a mixed inflation report. Odds for a 50 basis-point cut have been slashed by more than half to just 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets will assess August producer price inflation data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and fresh retail sales data next Tuesday.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Traders, Comercia Bank, Bank of America, Tech, Nvidia, Here's
Read previewA closely watched recession indicator flashed on Friday after a weak July jobs report showed an unexpected surge in the unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule, created by former Federal Reserve official Claudia Sahm, triggers when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average moves 50 basis points above its 12-month low. That rule was triggered on Friday, with the moving average rising 53 basis points above that one-year trough, according to the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The only misfire for the rule was in 1959, but even then, a recession started just five months after the Sahm Rule flashed. But Sahm herself wrote in a Substack post last week that "the rise in the unemployment rate is not as ominous as it would normally seem."
Persons: , Claudia Sahm, Bill Adams, Sahm, hasn't Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Comerica Bank, Fed
Index ended the day lower Wednesday as investors braced for Tesla and Alphabet's earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings. The stock market is fresh off a winning rally on Monday, which saw the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rise above 1%. Advertisement"The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is expected to tick lower in the June release, paralleling the month's slower CPI inflation.
Persons: , Tesla, Bill Adams, it's Organizations: Tesla, Service, Nasdaq, UPS, Federal, Comerica, CPI
Stock were mixed early Tuesday as investors awaited earnings from big companies. Markets are getting ready to pick through results from Tesla and Alphabet after the closing bell. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stock moves were muted on Tuesday, with investors getting ready to go over earnings results from Tesla and Google parent Alphabet after the closing bell. Tesla and Alphabet are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech cohort to post second-quarter results.
Persons: , Russell, Bill Adams, Adams Organizations: Service, Tesla, Google, Nasdaq, Federal
Stocks ended Thursday slightly higher ahead of a key update on inflation. PCE for May will be published on Friday morning, providing new hints about when rate cuts may be coming. Chip firms Nvidia and Micron dipped in Thursday's session, though the broader Nasdaq edged higher. Bond yields dipped ahead of the new data, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about two basis points to 4.292%. "More recent data have moved in the right direction, but not by enough to convince the Fed that inflation is whipped."
Persons: Stocks, , economy's, Bill Adams, Michelle Bowman, Keith Gill Organizations: PCE, Nvidia, Micron, Nasdaq, Service, Commerce Department, Treasury, Friday's PCE, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, Here's Locations: Friday's, U.S, Chewy
US stocks closed mostly lower Thursday, ending a long streak of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Nvidia dragged the market lower as the tech giant dropped 3% after rising as much in early morning trading. The S&P 500 climbed above 5,500 for the first time ever on Thursday before dipping back below that level. Advertisement"At the same time, labor market indicators like initial and continued jobless claims are weakening.
Persons: , Bill Adams Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Comerica Bank
US stocks ended mostly higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by new inflation data. Data showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected in May, a day after CPI showed consumer inflation also slowed. Tesla shares jumped ahead of the results of Elon Musk's pay package vote, while Broadcom soared after earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, Broadcom stock rocketed higher on upbeat earnings and the announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Elon Musk Organizations: Elon, Broadcom, Service, Federal Reserve, Traders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, BlackRock, Vanguard, Bank of America, Nvidia, Here's
US stocks rose to fresh records Wednesday as traders took in cool inflation and Fed comments. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in cool inflation data and the Federal Reserve's latest guidance on rate cuts, helping the S&P 500 to another record close. The 10-year Treasury fell seven basis points to 6.33%, rising from steeper losses earlier in the day after the central bank updated its outlook to include fewer rate cuts than previously expected. FOMC members said they didn't believe it was "appropriate" to cut rates until they had gained more confidence inflation is trending back to 2%. Fed fund futures show that investors see a 62% chance the Fed will cut rates three times or more by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: , FOMC, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Comerica Bank Locations: April's
Cooling labor also extended a Treasury rally, with yields on the benchmark 10-year note dropping over seven basis points. Advertisement"When the job market was red-hot in 2022, Fed officials were getting concerned that wage-price pressures could cause inflation to accelerate out of control," Comerica's chief economist Bill Adams said. "Most labor indicators are pointing to a considerably cooler job market now. In Bank of America's view, a reading of 125,000-175,000 would be the optimal range, pointing to continued strength without the need to keep interest rates higher for longer. The bank said a reading in that range would be a catalyst for further stock market gains.
Persons: , Tuesday's, That's, Bill Adams, Powell, May's Organizations: Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank, Here's
Inflation remained essentially flat in April while showing signs of progress, the Commerce Department reported Friday, in a closely watched measure that will guide the Federal Reserve in any decision to loosen interest rates in the coming months. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the same level as in March. After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a clearer reading of price trends — called the core index — inflation remained steady at 2.8 percent on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, inflation also remained flat, with prices rising 0.3 percent in April. That “core” index showed a slight moderation, rising 0.2 percent from the previous month, compared with 0.3 percent in March.
Persons: , , Bill Adams Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S
Markets are bracing for the release of PCE inflation data on Friday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Markets are now bracing for the release of personal consumption expenditures data, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Economists expect the data to show inflation in April rose 2.7% year-over-year, while core PCE rose 0.2%, compared to 0.3% in March.
Persons: , Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Comerica Bank, Treasury, Fed Locations: Salesforce, Here's
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.
Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S
New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, , Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, , Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle
Stocks dropped sharply as investors readjusted rate cut expectations ahead of the latest FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as investors got another dose of inflationary data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. For the Fed, that adds even more restraint on its ability to cut interest rates this year, and futures markets now expect only one rate cut in December. AdvertisementThe equity decline that followed only deepened April's market losses, making it the first month of 2024 to end in the red.
Persons: Stocks, , Bill Adams, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, of Labor Statistics, Comerica Bank Locations: McDonald's, Israel, Here's
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Thursday as Big Tech names Alphabet and Microsoft saw shares rally on strong earnings. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures popped 1.2%. The blue-chip Dow slid 375 points Thursday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 is up 1.6% week to date, on pace to break a three-week losing streak. So far, about 38% of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, and nearly 80% of those beat earnings expectations.
Persons: Dow, Thursday's, Dow Jones, Bill Adams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Big Tech, Microsoft, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Gross, Dow, Comerica Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Monday as investors await a key inflation report that could inform the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both inched up 0.2%. All eyes are on the February reading of the consumer price index, which is set to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. "The CPI index likely ran hot in February on higher gasoline prices, but core inflation likely slowed further as car prices fell and rent increases moderated," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. The technology-led market rally has lost momentum as of late as some of the biggest winners this year continued to retreat.
Persons: Dow Jones, Bill Adams, Tesla, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Fed, Comerica Bank, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft
AdvertisementThat means the strong job numbers of recent months have largely been due to immigrants , specifically foreign-born workers, entering the workforce in large numbers. “Foreign-born labor force participants have accounted for all of the job growth over the last year,” Bill Adams, an economist at Comerica Bank, told The New York Times. AdvertisementAdditionally, he said these job gains haven’t come at the expense of US-born workers either. As of 2022, foreign-born workers were more likely than US-born workers to be in service, natural resources, construction, and maintenance jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of January, 65.7% of foreign-born workers were working or looking for work, compared to 61.4% of US-born workers.
Persons: , ” Bill Adams, Paul Krugman, “ They're, , Louis, Miguel Faria, Castro, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Business, Comerica Bank, New York Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Immigrants, Congressional, Office, St, Louis Fed
Consumers remained largely sanguine about the economy and inflation in February, according to the latest sentiment survey from the University of Michigan released Friday. The February index rose 0.6 points to 79.6 after posting strong gains in the prior two months. The index of consumer expectations, a forecast of how Americans see the economy in the coming months, is now up 21.6% from a year ago. Expectations for inflation did tick up slightly, with the 12-month level now at 3%, up from 2.9% in January. “The upside surprise in the January PPI report echoes the month’s CPI report,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, “ Consumers, Hsu, Jerome Powell’s, Ken Tjonasam, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: University of Michigan, , PPI, Global, CPI, Comerica Bank, “ Labor
Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers tumbled much more than expected in January as cold weather across the United States kept shoppers at home after a robust holiday spending season. Retail sales, which captures spending on all goods and food services, fell 0.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, breaking a two-month streak of increases. Spending declined across various categories last month, including at gas stations and home improvement stores, likely due to the cold weather, falling 1.7% and 4.1%, respectively. January’s Arctic chill also reversed course later in the month in some parts of the country and it’s possible that retail spending could come roaring back in February. “The Fed is likely to look through one month’s weak retail sales report, especially since there is an obvious explanation from a clearly temporary issue,” he said.
Persons: it’s, Bill Adams, , Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank Locations: Washington, United States
The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.
Persons: , BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, , Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, Locations: U.S
Official figures show that growth is solid, jobs are plentiful and wages are climbing, and yet voters are mostly feeling down and giving President Biden little credit. Friday’s jobs data is adding to that split-screen view, with economists pointing out red flags in an otherwise sterling report. Employers added 353,000 jobs last month, almost double economists’ forecasts, and an additional 100,000 via revisions in previous months. Average hourly wages rose, too. For a start, wintry weather shrank the average workweek to 34.1 hours in January.
Persons: Biden, Bill Adams Organizations: Employers, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S
The latest S&P Case-Shiller national home price index data published Tuesday — which offers the three-month average for September, October, and November closing prices — showed a moderate slowdown in price gains. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months." However, each saw annual gains of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. The biggest annual price gains came in Detroit and San Diego, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."
Persons: , Brian D, Luke, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: Detroit, San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, Portland
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