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With nearly three-fourths of the S & P 500 reporting second-quarter results, the earnings picture for the back half of the year is looking unusually complicated. It's been a 'meh' quarter so far We have the usual beat on bottom-line earnings, but revenue beats are below expectations. Most companies are beating on earnings estimates but are declining to hike full-year guidance beyond the beat. Plenty of complaints about a slowing China consumer A weak China economy has been a significant headwind for a number of global companies this season. Procter & Gamble's China sales tumbled 8% from a year ago as consumer spending slowed.
Persons: It's, Sherwin, Williams, Lockheed Martin, Chipotle, Isaac, CDW, Clorox, – Hershey, Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, General Mills, Smucker, McDonald's, Wendy's, Bob, Wyndham, Mills, Marriott, LVMH, haven't Organizations: GE Aerospace, Hasbro, Lockheed, Verizon, Mattel, IBM, Juniper Networks, Enphase Energy, NXP Semiconductors, Accenture, Oracle, Procter, Gamble, PepsiCo, ConAgra Brands, Bank of America, MGM Resorts, Comcast, Marriott, Airlines, Allegiant, Ryanair, Gamble's, Starbucks, Visa, Nike, Vegas Sands Locations: J.M, Atlantic City, China, Gamble's China, Greater China, Japan, Macao, Marina, Sands, Singapore
Wells Fargo downgrades Morgan Stanley to underweight from equal weight Wells Fargo downgraded Morgan Stanley and said the "upward premium re-rating seems over." Morgan Stanley initiates Lionsgate Studios at overweight Morgan Stanley said it's bullish on shares of the movie studio company. Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as a top pick Morgan Stanley said it's standing by the stock following an analysis of July auto sales. Morgan Stanley upgrades Mobileye to equal weight from underweight Morgan Stanley said the risk/reward is more balanced for the auto supply tech company. " Morgan Stanley reiterates Nvidia as overweight Morgan Stanley says it's sticking with its overweight rating on the AI chipmaker.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Apple, Q, Gildan, Wells, downgrades Morgan Stanley, it's, TD, TD Cowen, Cowen, Raymond James downgrades Crocs, Raymond James, CROX, Oppenheimer, Tesla, Rosenblatt, Lululemon, LULU, K's Organizations: TEAM, Apple Intelligence, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Amazon, Big Cap Tech, Stifel, Bank of American, Bank of America, Lionsgate, Lionsgate Studios, Intel, of America, TD Cowen, Dynamics, U.S, EV, 7M, UBS downgrades, UBS, Nvidia Locations: California, USA
While we are getting a tech rally Wednesday thanks to Advanced Micro Devices (up 7%), this is the month when rotation became more than a one day event. Since small-cap companies often have more debt and higher borrowing costs, the expectation of lower rates is certainly a factor. I noted weeks ago that more fundamentally inclined investors were worried about the slower rate of earnings growth for big cap technology stocks . The Russell 2000 would also benefit any time a rotation out of tech occurs because the weightings are different. While the two sectors that comprise technology in the S & P 500 (Technology and Communication Services) are about 40% of the S & P 500, the Russell 2000 is much more diverse.
Persons: Consumer Staples, Russell Organizations: Micro Devices, Energy, Health Care, Consumer, Communication Services, Care Locations: Banks
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Monday the recent reshuffling on Wall Street is about more than a resurgence in small-cap stocks. "This market is not experiencing a smallcap rally, it's experiencing a rally in everything else but the tech titans. Cramer suggested the market isn't being led solely by a few smaller-cap companies that are performing well. Instead, he said, large institutions may be buying poor quality small stocks "as part of a larger basket" with indexes like the Russell 2000 or the S&P Small Cap 600. There are also larger companies that have seen huge gains recently as part of the market broadening, he said, such as McDonald's .
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Russell, Wall, McDonald's Organizations: titans
The stock market is facing several issues: a tech re-rating, a slower economy, a seasonally weak period and an uncertain presidential outcome. Big cap tech is getting re-rated This is what happens when the market gets top-heavy in technology. Prices for megacap tech stocks have run up dramatically in hopes of outsized earnings. Regardless, investors have been re-rating tech stocks for many weeks now. Technology stocks have been toppy for some time.
Persons: Sundar Pichai, he'd, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Matt Bartolini, Kamala Harris, Sam Stovall, Trump Organizations: Technology, Cloud Computing, Semiconductor, P Technology, X Social Media, Semiconductors, Micron, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, State, Trump, Democratic Locations: SPDR Americas
The third quarter starts on Monday with corporate earnings trends largely intact, but showing early signs of trouble in tech land. The good news: for the big-cap tech companies that are truly dominating the market ( Apple , Microsoft , Alphabet , Nvidia , etc.) Still no recession, in the economy or in earnings So far, we have a deceleration in big-cap tech earnings and clear signs the consumer wants lower prices. Earnings trends for tech may still be rising (even if it is decelerating), but the rest of the market is generally flattish on earnings. Earnings: rising Positive Tech earnings: rising but decelerating Negative Job growth: strong but moderating Positive Interest rates: moderating Positive Inflation: moderating Positive Consumer: increasingly cautious Negative
Persons: Jensen, Nick Raich, it's, Raich, Lori Calvasina, We've, I've, you've, Levi Strauss, General Mills, Tim Wentworth, Taco Bell, Mills Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Big, Meta, Jensen Huang's, Scout, U.S, Equity, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Nike, Walgreens, Micron, FedEx, General, . Companies, Southwest Airlines, Pool Corp, Urban Outfitters, Yum Brands
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPlurimi Wealth: Still comfortable with the multiples on the mega-cap namesPatrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimi Wealth, says you have to own the big cap tech companies as their growth is just incredible even as their multiples are at lofty levels.
Persons: Patrick Armstrong Organizations: Plurimi
The S & P 500 is closing out the first quarter on an epic win streak: The index is up 10% year to date and an amazing 25% in the past five months. Select S & P 500 sectors YTD Communication Services up 15% Technology up 12% Energy up 11% Financials up 11% Industrials up 10% Health Care up 8% The only sector down this quarter is real estate, off by 3% in the period. About 70% of the S & P 500 is in the green this year. The S & P 500 advance/decline has been on a tear since the middle of January, with far more stocks advancing on a daily basis than declining. "We saw persistent strength with the S & P 500 up every month from November through February, and this has nearly always been followed by more months of strength," he said.
Persons: Todd Sohn, Strategas, It's, Russell, Ned Davis, Davis, Alec Young Organizations: Communication Services, Technology, Energy, Care
As S&P approaches 5,000, this one trend has been unwavering
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
It's been a bumpy road from 4,000 to 5,000, but the overall trend stays with big cap tech. Talk about timing: It launched just as the S & P 500 was recovering from the banking crisis, and MAGS has been one of the star ETF performers of the last year. A bumpy road from 4,000 to 5,000 The S & P 500 had been comfortably over 4,000 from mid-2021 into mid-2022, when rising rates pushed the broad index below 4,000. This is true not just this year, but since the S & P went over 4,000 at the end of March, as has international investing. If you own the S & P 500, which has become tech-dominant, you are happy.
Persons: It's, Dave Mazza, MAGS, Mazza, ETFEdge.cnbc.com Organizations: Exchange ETF, Technology, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Communication Services, Banks, Care, Staples, Energy, Edge, Miami Beach Locations: Miami Beach, Roundhill
Meta's strong earnings has been a major factor in pushing up overall S & P 500 earnings estimates. The S & P 500 is up 4% for the year, but the equal-weight S & P 500 is up only 0.2%. Only about half the stocks in the S & P 500 are up this year. The two main small-cap indices, the Russell 2000 and the S & P SmallCap 600 , are both down 3% for the year. "If the S & P 500 was the Mag 7, it would be trading above 10k now."
Persons: Russell, we've Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, New York Stock Exchange, Software, NVIDIA, Apple
Friday, Feb. 2: Cramer says he's debating whether to still own this Magnificent 7 stockJim and Jeff discuss a their takeaways from tech earnings. They also talk about headwinds from China on this big cap tech stock. Finally, they talk about a few stock winners in energy.
Persons: Cramer, Jeff Locations: China
Happy Days Are Here Again, Say American Consumers
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Consumers are happy, the stock market is near record highs, inflation is moderating and the labor market is defying all forecasts. Apparently, very little as the latest reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan confirmed on Friday. The final consumer sentiment survey for January posted a 13% increase to 79, almost a 10-point surge from December’s 69.7 reading, echoing earlier estimates. “This morning’s strong jobs report diminished the chances of the Fed cutting in March,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. This means businesses are in a good position despite the macro headwinds and uncertainty about growth expectations.”
Persons: , , Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, , David Royal, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, LPL
The S & P 500 could close at an historic high today. On January 4th, three days into the new year, the S & P 500 closed at 4,688, down 1.7% for the very young new year. Now another indicator, the First Five Days indicator, was about to fail too. What turned things around was an old-fashioned tech rally, the exact thing that everyone was ready to write off because, well, after being the Big Story of 2023, a big-cap tech rally couldn't happen again, right? S & P Sectors YTD Health Care + 1.9% Consumer Staples - 0.2% Energy - 4.5% Real Estate - 4.3% Banks - 3.5% Consumer Discretionary - 2.3% What's the lesson?
Persons: Dan Ives, AI Jensen, Ives Organizations: Santa, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Staples, Energy, Nadella Locations: Wedbush
The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just eight days that explain most of the gains. If you want a simple indication of why market timing is not an effective investment strategy, take a look at the data on the S&P 500 year to date. How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the number of up days is about the same as the down days? Here's a hypothetical example of an investment in the S&P 500 over 50 years. The key to investing is not market timing: it is consistent investing, and understanding your own risk tolerance.
Persons: Nicholas Colas, there's, JP Morgan, Colas Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Facebook, Netflix, JP, Signature Bank Locations: Republic
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig cap tech is wildly overvalued considering the rise in rates, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarJeff Krumpelman, Mariner Wealth Advisors chief investment strategist, along with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss bond market activity taking over the job of the Fed, the negative impact rising rates are having on equities, and fiscal debt and geopolitical tensions causing near term P/E contraction.
Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Jeff Krumpelman, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Bleakley Financial Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Ankur Crawford and Keith LernerAnkur Crawford, Alger, and Truist's Keith Lerner, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss their big cap tech outlook, growth elusiveness and investing in a choppy market.
Persons: Ankur Crawford, Keith Lerner Ankur Crawford, Alger, Truist's Keith Lerner
How expensive is the S & P 500? One common argument is the S & P 500 will have trouble advancing in the fall because the P/E ratio is too high. The benchmark is currently trading at 19.8 times forward earnings estimates (forward earnings encompasses earnings for the next four quarters: Q3 and Q4 of 2023, and Q1 and Q2 of 2024). But look below the surface, and much of the S & P is not overvalued. S & P 500 Current multiple: 19.8 Ex-Magnificent-7: 17.3 Ex-Technology: 17.8 Source: Refinitiv Biggest winners this year have multiples far above their norms No surprise here.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, They're, Tajinder Dhillon, Dhillon, Silverblatt Organizations: P Global, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Communication Services, Services, Consumer Staples, Health, Real, Energy, Consumer
The risk of too great a concentration in big cap tech stocks is again back in focus. Many have been saying that a 5%-10% pullback is overdue, certainly for big cap tech. The correction may already be starting: many big tech names, particularly semiconductors, were down in the high- to mid-single digits last week. (market cap vs. country GDP) Apple $2.9 trillion France $2.9 trillion Source: Wells Fargo Microsoft bigger than Italy? "Using 1999 as our example, we wonder how much longer the current chart (Apple > France and Tesla > Taiwan) is sustainable," he writes.
Persons: Today's Russell rebalance, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey —, Russell, There's, David Faber, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey, Tesla, Harvey, Dan Ives, Ives Organizations: NYSE, Nasdaq, Intel, AMD, Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Wells, today's Tech, General Electric, Cisco, Walmart, Nokia, Pfizer, ExxonMobil, IBM, Citigroup, Tesla, Big Tech Locations: France, Italy, Mexico, Taiwan, Wedbush
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWedbush's Dan Ives expects a 'tidal wave' of growth in tech after earnings seasonDan Ives, Wedbush managing director, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss big cap tech stocks, the tech rally, the A.I. boom and where the sector goes from here.
Persons: Dan Ives, Wedbush
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Wedbush's Dan Ives and New York Life Investment's Lauren GoodwinDan Ives, Wedbush and Lauren Goodwin, New York Life Investment, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss big cap tech stocks, A.I. and where the sector and greater markets go from here.
Persons: Wedbush's Dan Ives, Investment's Lauren Goodwin Dan Ives, Wedbush, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: New York, New York Life Investment Locations: New
CNBC's Jim Cramer told investors on Monday the market is ripe with untapped potential. "When you look underneath, this market's not all that concentrated," Cramer said. "Much of the gains in this market are, indeed, in aggregate concentrated in a handful of huge tech companies. "Here's the bottom line: the strength away from tech is undeniable," Cramer said. "It's time to open our eyes to what's really happening rather than being blinded by the big cap tech light."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, We've, DR, Eaton, Emerson, you'll Organizations: Apple, Facebook, Boeing, General Electric Locations: Pulte
As big-cap tech approaches new highs, some put more emphasis on equal weight. With more than $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, this is not an academic debate. With the S & P 500 up 8% this year, the average stock, as represented by the S & P Equal Weight ETF (RSP), is up a measly 0.5%. The RSP has underperformed the market-cap weighted S & P 500 month-to-date, quarter-to-date, and year-to-date. An argument could be made that active managers invest more like an equal-weight index.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConcerns over the debt ceiling could lead to a sell-off, says Destination Wealth's Michael YoshikamiMichael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss opportunities in short-term and fixed income markets, rebalancing portfolio strategies, and big cap tech names to invest in.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAltimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner on the A.I. arms race fueling the tech sectorBrad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital CEO, joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the A.I. arms race and what it means for big cap tech.
"Investors are okay with earnings so far because the lack of bad news is good news," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments. "The market is waiting to see if we can get some bullish earnings over the next few weeks from some of the big cap tech stocks." A slate of Fed speakers this week voiced support for another 25-basis-point rate hike by the U.S. central bank when it meets next week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.42-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.30-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 18 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 78 new lows.
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