State polling misses in presidential elections with Trump Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2020 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 Iowa Result Poll avg.
State polling misses in presidential elections Polls underestimated Democrat Republican 2012 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 S.C.
One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys.
Past polling misses in presidential elections for battleground states Years in bold indicate those in which the polling leader lost in that state.
D+15 D+10 D+5 Even R+5 R+10 R+15 Note: Averages not available for some states in some years.
Persons:
it’s, Donald J, Hillary Clinton, Joseph R, Biden, pollsters, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Trump, Mr, Clinton, Obama, Mitt Romney, John McCain, George W, Bush, John Kerry, Al Gore, ”, Chris Jackson, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, “, Berwood Yost, we’ve
Organizations:
Republican, Mr, Trump Polls, Ohio Texas, Iowa Ohio, Electoral, N.H . Iowa Nev, Nev . Ohio N.M, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa Wis, ., . Ohio Mo, Democratic, Ipsos, Biden, Pew Research, Wisconsin Polling, Michigan Polling, Nevada Polling, Carolina Polling, Arizona Polling, Georgia Polling, Franklin & Marshall, Poll of Pennsylvania
Locations:
Ohio Texas Fla, N.C ., Ariz . Wis, Pa, Nev . Mich . Wisconsin, N.C, Ariz . Fla, Wis, Pa . Mich, N.H, Minn, Nev, Colo, Fla . Ohio Va, N.H . Iowa, Mich, South Carolina, Mont, Mo, Ind, Indiana, Fla, Nev . Ohio, Nev . Ohio N.M . Iowa, Ore, Hawaii, . Ohio, N.H . Fla, Iowa Minn, Wash, Ill, Florida, pollsters, State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Carolina, Arizona, Georgia