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☆ Trump's proposed trade war raises the odds of a US recession to 75%, Wall Street strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said. Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments. In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump. On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.

Persons: Trump's, —, Peter Berezin, Donald Trump's, Berezin, Trump Organizations: Trump, BCA Research, Service, Yale Locations: China

☆ How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China

☆ 2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board

☆ Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."

Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan

☆ The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts. The firm said the Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates. And perhaps most importantly, the Fed's plan to blunt any economic decline via interest rate cuts simply won't work. For example, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers is around 4%, compared to current mortgage rates of around 7%. That means even if the Fed cuts interest rates and mortgage rates decline, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers will continue to rise.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin Organizations: BCA Research, Service, Federal, Wall

☆ S&P 500 to tumble 30% as recession hits later this year, says BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. stocks are set to drop more than 30% as a recession hits the U.S. economy in the coming months, BCA Research predicts. We conservatively expect the S & P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession," Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin wrote in a note Tuesday. The calculation is conservative because it assumes that S & P 500 revenue rises in line with nominal gross adjusted product, he explained. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500's one-year performance BCA Research said it sees several feedback loops that will weaken the economy. Absent "overwhelming evidence" of an imminent recession risk, the central bank will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively, he said.

Persons: Peter Berezin, Berezin, JPMorgan's Dubravko Organizations: Research, Tech, Wall, CNBC

☆ Megacap U.S. stocks are carrying the rest of the world. Here are the risks, and where to look for diversification
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France

Wholesale prices spiked in January, rising 0.3% and above expectations in yet another sign that maybe inflation is proving harder to put to rest than the markets and the Federal Reserve had hoped. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase in both the overall producer price index – a measure of prices paid by businesses – and the core, which leaves out often volatile energy and food costs. Increases in shelter costs accounted for more than two-thirds of the increase in the main index, although food prices also increased while energy costs fell. Investors had bought into the notion of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May, but that was called into question by the stronger-than-expected news on inflation. “When will the recession start?” asks Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in a report out Friday morning.

Persons: ”, Clark Bellin, John Ingram, Chris Giamo, Giamo, “, Peter Berezin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, CPI, Dow Jones, Investors, ”, Crestwood Advisors, “, TD Bank, BCA Research Locations: U.S

☆ Tanya Berezin, Behind-the-Scenes Off Broadway Force, Dies at 82
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Alex Williams | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

By the mid-1980s, Tanya Berezin had gone far as a New York stage actress. “It just feels really uncomfortable and childish.”Her budding career crisis turned out to be an opportunity. In 1986, Ms. Berezin turned her attention from the stage to a highly influential behind-the-scenes role in the theater world: artistic director of the Circle Repertory Company, a storied Off Broadway incubator of talent that she had helped found in 1969. Ms. Berezin died on Nov. 29 at the home of her daughter, Lila Thirkield, in San Francisco. Ms. Thirkield said the cause of her death, which was not widely reported at the time, was lung cancer.

Persons: Tanya Berezin, Lanford, ”, Berezin, Lila Thirkield, Thirkield Organizations: Circle Repertory Locations: New York, San Francisco

Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “, ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S

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