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☆ Traders are confident Nvidia stock will rise after earnings, according to options market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street traders think next week's earnings report from Nvidia is likely to give the chip stock another boost, according to one interpretation of options market pricing. A Piper Sandler research note on Thursday from Benson Durham and Melissa Turner said short-term options on Nvidia look expensive, but that high cost is tilted toward options that serve as bets the stock will rise. So, expensive NVDA options in general don't connote very much investor angst heading into the release," the Piper Sandler report said. The market optimism about Nvidia extends beyond the immediate period after the earnings report, according to Piper Sandler. The Piper Sandler researchers did not take a fundamental position on Nvidia's earnings report.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Benson Durham, Melissa Turner Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft

If the Fed's holdings of long-dated securities were shrinking like other parts of the curve, or even at all, more of these bonds would be available to the wider market. Wang recognizes that if the Fed held fewer longer-dated securities these yields might be even higher, but also points out that the Fed's holdings are largely determined by what Treasury issues. All told, the Fed's 'QT 2' is almost twice the pace of QT 1. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsSince the Fed started QT 2, its total holdings of Treasury bills and bonds have fallen to $4.93 trillion from $5.77 trillion. The average profile of Fed-held Treasury debt is longer than total outstanding Treasury debt, and getting longer.

Persons: Sukree, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Joseph Wang, Wang, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Neel Kashkari, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Rights, Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Monetary, Minneapolis, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Durham

The collective impact of higher rates across the economy could also weaken the government's own finances. With borrowing rates high and inflation still relatively elevated, consumers, who drive about 70% of economic growth, are expected to spend more cautiously. “Those tighter, higher rates will have an impact on the economy.”Financial analysts point to several reasons for the rapid increase in lending rates. Overseas buyers have reduced their purchases, thereby forcing rates higher to attract buyers. “All of that is driving these fears of higher rates, and no one knows when it’s going to stop,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Freddie Mac, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Durham, Jerome Powell, ‘, we’re, ’ ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, David Page Organizations: WASHINGTON, United Auto Workers, Representatives, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ”, Fed, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Oxford Economics, AXA Locations: U.S, ’ ” Durham, London

☆ Endgame for Fed's tightening cycle challenged by easing financial conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Taking in to account everything from stock prices to measures of borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households, financial conditions matter to monetary policy. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported that its Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth for June moved to 0.458, from May’s 0.603 reading. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ closely watched Financial Conditions Index has been easing fairly steadily since May. An explicit goal has been to tighten financial conditions. Even as many key aspects of the economy have remained strong in the face of higher rates, inflation pressures are easing.

Persons: Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs ’, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Piper Sandler's Durham, Michael S, Dan Burns, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Derby, Thomson Locations: Chicago, New York

The current situation could not be further removed from the last time debt ceiling episodes really spooked markets in 2011 and 2013. The Fed is expected to raise rates again in May and could still even tighten again in June if policymakers think inflation and growth data warrant it. "Some people may be building some debt ceiling risks into their monetary policy expectations," said Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler. "The debt ceiling and monetary policy are going to be more intertwined in the coming months." chartThe debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations.

☆ As Fed meeting looms, economists see central bank balance sheet in new light
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

BIG NUMBERSFed numbers showed the speed of the shift to a new balance sheet reality. Fed holdings peaked at just shy of $9 trillion last summer. The details of Fed holdings matters greatly in terms of understanding Fed balance sheet dynamics, analysts say. Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, said the key is the composition and not the size of Fed holdings. One factor limiting economists’ interpretation of the balance sheet surge is the fluidity of the factors now driving it.

The determination is intact," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in remarks after the policy decision. "There is no tradeoff between price stability and financial stability ... we are addressing the price stability issue by raising the interest rate by 50 basis points ... Beyond the rate increase, the Fed will also be debating changes to its policy statement that could prove consequential. In crafting their next policy statement officials will have to decide, for example, whether to continue to anticipate the need for "ongoing increases" in the policy interest rate, or to temper that seemingly open-ended commitment with language that indicates rate hikes could pause at any moment, given the new risks. They will also be issuing new economic and interest rate projections that could add a further dose of caution.

Analysts agree that U.S. equity valuations are expensive, nominally and relative to history and overseas peers. The S&P 500 is still up 3.5% this year, the Nasdaq up 10%, and the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio comfortably above historical averages and current international comparisons. "The equity market is buying into a pretty rosy outlook, the 'immaculate disinflation' concept. The S&P 500 is currently trading at around 18.5 times 12-month forward earnings. "Neither of these outcomes are favorable for premium market valuations," Lerner wrote in a note on Monday.

"We've been talking about impending recession for several quarters now," said Malone, whose Virginia Beach-based company has a national footprint. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns. That poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would "pivot" on a dime to lower rates. "Government bond yields are up" since the last Fed policy meeting, Durham wrote. "It kind of seems the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago."

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