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Deflation — the trend of prices falling throughout the economy — presents a particularly dangerous trajectory for China, which carries a massive amount of debt. The main components of GDP on the demand side — consumption, investment, net exports — they all have serious problems right now." A shaky property marketMost of China's economic troubles tie directly into its property market. Roughly a quarter of China's population works in agriculture — well above the 3% mark in the US — and that presents its own productivity limitations. From an unstable, debt-ridden property market to anti-business policies and demographic issues, Beijing has plenty to tackle if it hopes to match the same growth as decades past.
Persons: David Dollar, Biden, Dexter Roberts, Roberts, Terry Group, it's, Xi Jinping Organizations: Service, China's National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, Brookings, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Financial Times, China's, Global, US Census Bureau, Atlantic Council, Communist Party, Garden Holdings, Beike Research Institute, Terry Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, China, People's Bank of China, China's US, Western, Russia, Asia, Ukraine, Mexico, China cratered, Rocky
China's real estate market roiled by default fears again
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Two years after Evergrande's debt troubles, worries about China's real estate sector are coming to the forefront again. In late July, its top leaders indicated a shift toward greater support for the real estate sector, paving the way for local governments to implement specific policies. For the last several years, Chinese authorities have attempted to curb debt-fueled speculation in the country's massive — and hot — real estate market. Real estate and related industries have accounted for about a quarter of China's economy. He pointed out that since China started its deleveraging campaign in 2016, it is very unlikely the state would step in to bail out real estate developers.
Persons: Qilai Shen, Dalian Wanda, Liu Haibo, Sandra Chow, Nomura, Chow, Evergrande, Redmond Wong, , Wong, Vanke, that's Organizations: Country Garden Holdings Co, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, Reuters, CNBC, Country, Asia Pacific Research, CreditSights, Fitch, Saxo Markets Hong, China's, House Research, Stock, Poly Development, Research Locations: Baoding, Hebei province, China, Dalian, Hong Kong, Beijing, Saxo Markets Hong Kong
Analysts expect sentiment to recover gradually next year, as the relaxation of COVID restrictions and property support policies take effect. Property investment fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year in November after a 16% slump in October, the NBS said in a statement. Beike's Liu predicted housing demand will be gradually released in 2023 as consumer sentiment will improve with a progress in housing delivery. Although markets cheered the easing policies, which are expected to boost economic growth in the long term, some analysts say fragile overall demand will keep the property sector's recovery gradual. "Considering the challenging demographic trend, and policymakers' long-held stance that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation', we maintain our view that the property sector recovery should be gradual and bumpy," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
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