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☆ China's inflation is likely to stay 'very low' for an extended period, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's inflation is likely to stay 'very low' for an extended period, strategist saysBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, discusses the outlook for the country's economy ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's third plenum.

Persons: Becky Liu Organizations: Standard Chartered Bank, Communist Locations: China

☆ China is 'very keen' to step up economic support, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is 'very keen' to step up economic support, strategist saysBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, says, however, that a "mega stimulus" is not yet on the table.

Persons: Becky Liu Organizations: China, Standard Chartered Bank Locations: China

☆ StanChart strategist discusses China's CPI target, inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Quite unlikely' that China will hit its CPI inflation target of 3% this year: StanChart strategistBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered, says "our forecast for CPI inflation is only averaging 0.5% in 2024."

Persons: Becky Liu Organizations: Standard Chartered Locations: China

"I used to love buying branded clothes," said teacher Zhang as she sifted through a pile of garments priced between 15 and 50 yuan ($2-$7). With wages and pensions hardly budging and the job market highly uncertain as more than one in five young Chinese remain unemployed, households' confidence and spending power are low in the barely growing economy. The real estate sector, one of the pillars of the economy, is struggling with massive debt. "One of my customers is a rich woman who used to go to Japan for shopping, but now she comes to my store," said Wang. ($1 = 7.3179 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Winni Zhou in Shanghai; editing by Marius Zaharia and Miral FahmyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Amy Zhang, Zhang, Becky Liu, Gucci, Kering, Lu, Yunshan, I've, Wang, Winni Zhou, Marius Zaharia Organizations: Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, China, LVMH, Japan, Shanghai

☆ Dollar rises on robust U.S. economy, yuan sinks to 16-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. China's onshore yuan slid to a 16-year low, under pressure from a property slump, weak consumer spending and shrinking credit growth in the world's second-largest economy. ONSHORE YUAN HIT 2007 LEVELSThe onshore yuan sank to 7.3296 per dollar, its weakest since December 2007. The Australian dollar was about flat at $0.6384, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% at $0.5885, with both languishing near their recent 10-month lows. “We see yuan staying under pressure (against the dollar) in the near term," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.

Persons: Florence Lo, Kirstine Kundby, Joseph Capurso, Becky Liu, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Zhou, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, U.S ., Nielsen, Danske Bank, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Standard Chartered Bank, People's Bank of China, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, China's, Japan, Asia, Bank

☆ Exclusive: Chinese exporters using currency swaps to retain dollars as yuan sags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The swaps allow exporters to place their dollars with banks and get yuan instead, but through a contract that will eventually reverse the flows and give them back their dollars. However, while they remove a much-needed source of dollar supplies into spot yuan markets, analysts reckon Chinese monetary authorities can't really force exporters to convert dollars. When exporters swap higher-yielding dollars for the cheaper yuan for even 3 months, they get local currency for business needs and also earn a pick-up of an annualised 3.5% on the swap deal. "By trading FX swaps, exporters can postpone their settlements while meeting their yuan demand," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. Exporters' swaps, meanwhile, give state banks a pile of dollars to use in their yuan operations, in which they can undertake swaps to acquire the dollars from the onshore forwards market and sell them in the spot market to stem fast yuan declines.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ding, Gary Ng, Becky Liu, Jindong Zhang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Traders, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Standard Chartered Bank, China Merchants Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, U.S, Shanghai, China, Natixis, Singapore

A record 38 QDII funds had been launched this year until August 17, outpacing the 31 funds launched in 2022, Morningstar data shows. Tianhong, which is planning new QDII products, obtained a $120 million fresh QDII quota in July, less than it had hoped for. Rather than foreign capital selling China equities, this time it's Chinese investors’ outbound investment,” Liu said. HUGE DEMANDThe QDII program, launched in 2006, remains a key outbound investment channel for mainland Chinese investors, alongside the Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership (QDLP) programme. Tracy Liu, an individual investor working in the information technology industry, invested in an India-focused QDII fund in March.

Persons: Aly, Ivan Shi, Liu Dong, Becky Liu, Liu, ” Liu, Desiree Wang, Tracy Liu, Summer Zhen, Samuel Shen, Jason Xue, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Morningstar, Domestic Institutional, Nasdaq, Ben Advisors, Connect, Bond, U.S, Dow Jones, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Tianhong, Management, Ant Financial, Standard Chartered Bank, Reuters, Qualified Domestic Limited, Asset Management Association of China, Guangfa NASDAQ, Technology, Morgan Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management China, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, U.S, HONG KONG, SHANGHAI, Hong Kong, Vietnam, India, outflows, Japan, Russia

☆ China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate will drop to 1.9% from 2%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The rate cut reveals “growing concerns among policymakers” about the health of China’s recovery, Capital Economics analysts said on Tuesday. “The … rate cut came earlier and sharper than our and market expectations, highlighting the sense of urgency to alleviate economic momentum and business confidence,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. That rate cut also came as a surprise and followed a week of turmoil in global financial markets triggered by the failure of some regional US banks. In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.

Persons: ”, Becky Liu, Zhaopeng Xing, Betty Wang, Yi Gang, Larry Hu, “ Governor Yi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, PMI, ANZ Research, Macquarie Group, “ Locations: Hong Kong, China

As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.

"(But) it feels like I should keep some dollars on hand, as the yuan will depreciate further." Others anticipating a bumpy ride ahead for the Chinese currency include China Southern Airlines (600029.SS). Such moves are perhaps not surprising given yuan volatility since Beijing suddenly unwound its zero-COVID strategy. "Overall, yuan exchange rate will remain basically stable at reasonable levels," he added at a March 3. news briefing. ($1 = 6.9009 Chinese yuan)Writing by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Volatility in yuan spurs bets China will widen its band
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - As macroeconomic risks induce unprecedented levels of volatility in China's yuan, investors are betting that authorities may widen the currency's tight trading band for first time since 2014 to allow market forces greater say. Day-to-day yuan volatility has been as high as 16% on some days in October, compared with a tame 1% to 4% range in the months and years before. Policy sources have told Reuters they have considered widening the trading band over the past few years to show their commitment to long-term market reforms. Rising volatility in yuan-rouble trading earlier this year prompted the central bank to double the trading band for the pair to 10% in March. Yet, most analysts who think a band widening is due also do not think it is imminent.

☆ Explainer: What's inside China's toolbox to rein in excess yuan weakness?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The local currency also looks set for the biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified official and market exchange rates. The rapid yuan declines prompted the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to lower the amount of foreign exchange financial institutions must hold as reserves to rein in weakness. The PBOC has been setting firmer-than-expected daily yuan midpoint fixings since late August to prevent excess yuan weakness, as the onshore spot yuan can only trade in a 2% narrow range around the midpoint. The central bank adjusted the methodology a few times before suspending it in October 2020. "The yuan exchange rate level itself is not the most important, the nature of the issue is whether China's cross-border capital flows remain stable," said Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities.

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