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Sarupya Ganguly - 2 Christine Lagarde - 1 bloc's - 1 Lagarde - 1 Bas van Geffen - 1 Michael Kirker - 1 Prerana Bhat - 1 Anitta Sunil - 1
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Search resuls for: "Bas Van Geffen"


5 mentions found


☆ ECB to pause in September, say slim majority of economists: Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. In the poll 37 - or 53% - of 70 economists predict no move at the Sept 14 meeting compared with 47% in last month's poll, which would mean the ECB leaving its deposit rate at 3.75%, in line with market pricing. The poll also showed 53% expecting a deposit rate rise to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December. While markets are priced for a roughly 60% chance of a pause in September, they are split for year-end, with just over a 50% probability of a 4.00 deposit rate by then. However, inflation setbacks could still force a rate hike later this year," said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, bloc's, Lagarde, Bas van Geffen, Michael Kirker, Prerana Bhat, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Sarupya Ganguly, John Stonestreet Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank, spillovers, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Germany, Ukraine, European
☆ Bond market divergence from Fed entrenched in U.S. yield forecasts
  + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Three-quarters of strategists, 15 of 20, who answered an extra question said the 2-year Treasury yield was unlikely to revisit its cycle peak over the coming three months. Only two of 27 respondents had the 2-year yield trading higher than the current level at the end of August. The benchmark 10-year note yield , meanwhile, was forecast to decline by much less, about 25 basis points over the coming six months. An inverted yield curve has historically been a reliable indicator of an oncoming recession but so far, having been inverted for almost a year, that has not happened. "Persistence of this configuration — continued growth along with above target inflation — will keep mild upward pressure on two-year and 10-year yields."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Bas Van Geffen, Robert Tipp, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Rabobank, Fed, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Silicon
☆ Strategists slash U.S. yield view again despite Fed's inflation focus
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Yields on U.S. 2-year Treasury notes have plunged over 100 basis points following the failure of some regional U.S. banks last month. But markets are pricing for a series of interest rate cuts starting just two months later, underscoring an exceptionally large divergence from the central bank's own view. That recent downward trend in yields is forecast to continue further, according to the April 5-12 poll of over 60 bond strategists. However, in the coming three months, yields on both 2-year and 10-year notes were expected to rise 20 and 25 basis points, respectively, before resuming their fall. Relatively high volatility has also been a driver of yield forecasts over the past few months.
☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.
☆ Confidence in UK assets on thin ice, investors warn - Reuters poll
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.
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