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☆ De-dollarization is a fad that will backfire on countries trying to move away from the greenback, currency expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

De-dollarization is nothing but a myth — and it could backfire on countries like Russia and China. That's according to Jeffrey Christian, a commodities expert who thinks dollar dominance isn't going away anytime soon. He says countries phasing out the greenback also could face consequences, like liquidity issues and slow growth. AdvertisementDe-dollarization is probably a fad — and countries trying to stage a global shift away from the dollar may soon find that the movement will backfire. Despite the ongoing movement, dollar dominance isn't probably going away, given how pervasive the greenback is in financial markets, he told Business Insider in an interview.

Persons: Jeffrey Christian, —, Christian, It's, it's Organizations: Service, CPM Group, Traders, Reuters, Bank of International, International Monetary Fund, UC, Berkeley Locations: Russia, China, India

☆ De-dollarization is 'a myth,' and there's no big shift taking place away from the US currency, commodities expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said. No one is dumping dollars," Christian said of de-dollarization in a recent presentation. Its closest competitor, the euro, accounted for just 19% of all central bank reserves in 2022, down from around 29% several decades ago. Advertisement"There has been a diversification of central bank foreign exchange holdings, but it's not at the expense of the dollar, and it's not away from the dollar," Christian said. "Clearly people are buying dollars in a much greater volume than they are selling dollars," Christian said.

Persons: Jeffrey Christian, —, Christian, it's, Chris Wallace, Wallace Organizations: CPM, Service, Bank of International Settlements, Monetary Fund, Federal Locations: Russia, China

☆ Want to know what Jerome Powell will do next? Here are the 10 academic journals the Federal Reserve pulls its inflation playbook from.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The key to those predictions is the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy Jerome Powell will enact next year as he fights to get inflation down to a target of 2%. Clearly, anticipating the Fed's next move is far from simple, even for Wall Street pros. While government data is clearly an important source of data for central bankers, a less-understood resource is academia. Understanding which of these resources central bankers rely on can provide insight into upcoming monetary policy moves. That way they could find the signal in all the noise and focus only on the academic journals really driving public monetary policy.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Wall, Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Fed, Bank of International

☆ Developing countries owe China at least $1.1 trillion – and the debts are due
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Hong Kong CNN —Developing countries owe Chinese lenders at least $1.1 trillion, according to a new data analysis published Monday, which says more than half of the thousands of loans China has doled out over two decades are due as many borrowers struggle financially. Now, 55% of China’s official sector loans to developing countries have entered their repayment periods, according to the analysis of more than two decades of China’s overseas funding across 165 countries released by AidData. Instead, China is providing substantial numbers of emergency rescue loans, according to AidData. Overall funding commitments from China to the developing world declined at the start of the pandemic, according to AidData. Half of China’s non-emergency lending portfolio to developing countries is now provided via syndicated loan arrangements, with more than 80% of these arrangements involving those Western or multilateral partners, they said.

Persons: William & Mary, Xi Jinping, ”, Brad Parks, Hajarah Nalwadda, ’ AidData, ” Parks, “ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, William &, Initiative, AidData, CNN, “, Bank of International, Getty, World Bank Locations: China, Hong Kong, Virginia, Beijing, America, Southeast Asia, Switzerland, Kiryandongo, Uganda, Xinhua, United States, AidData, Zambia, Ghana

☆ BRICS countries could swing an 'economic wrecking ball' at dollar dominance even without a shared trade currency, former White House economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

BRICS countries could swing an "economic wrecking ball" at the dollar, a former White House economist says. Such a currency could potentially topple the dollar from its perch atop global trade markets and as the dominant reserve currency. "The BRICS+ nations do not need to wait until a shared trade currency meets the technical conditions typical of global reserve currency before they swing their newly enlarged economic wrecking ball at the dollar," he added. "The BRICS+ states do not even necessarily need to have a shared trade currency to chip away at King Dollar's domain. Other economists argue though that the dollar's role as the world's top trading and reserve currency will likely continue for a long time.

Persons: —, Joe Sullivan, Sullivan, BRICS Organizations: White House, Service, White, Foreign, United, Treasury, King, Bank of International Settlements, International Monetary Fund Locations: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Suez, Brazil, China, Russia

☆ Analysis: Yen comeback may be a longer waiting game
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

One result is an uneasy calm in spot and options markets for dollar/yen as traders give up waiting for the yen to bounce. Driven weaker by the widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates, the yen has lost 13% on the dollar this year and at 150 is near the three-decade low of 151.94 that prompted government intervention a year ago. Market participants say what's changed is the expectation that Japan would be in the driver's seat for the yen this year. Yet together with the risk of intervention, it only seems to have stopped the yen from falling, rather than driving the sort of rally investors had been girding for at the outset of 2023. To be sure, Sachdev said interest in 'carry trades' - borrowing yen to sell for higher-interest paying currencies is waning, while investors have been keen for long exposure to yen assets.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Patrick Law, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yen, Shafali Sachdev, Sachdev, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Pacific FX, Bank of America, Bank of International Settlements, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, U.S ., Swiss, Reuters, BNP, Wealth Management, Citi, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, U.S

☆ China FX regulator says CBDC features could improve monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

China's official app for digital yuan is seen on a mobile phone next to 100-yuan banknotes in this illustration picture taken October 16, 2020. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Chinese foreign exchange regulator official said "programmable features" of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could help enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, state media reported on Friday. China is among a host of countries developing their own CBDCs - digital tokens issued by central banks - although adoption is still in its early stages. Lu said he expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) could explore the features to adjust rates of CBDC, which could also be used manage the macro economy. Transactions using China's CBDC, the e-CNY, hit 1.8 trillion yuan ($249.33 billion) at end-June.

Persons: Florence Lo, Lu Lei, Lu, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Shanghai Securities News, People's Bank of China, Bank of International, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: China

☆ With Indian rupee near record low, cenbank steps up NDF intervention
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The RBI intervened on NDF in the morning (before local over-the-counter, OTC, markets opened) and it did the same yesterday," the head of treasury at a private sector bank said. The banker said the RBI has been intervening in the NDF market via the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) and a large U.S.-based bank. At times, we see (Indian) public sector bank names," the head of proprietary trading at a foreign bank said. By the time local OTC markets opened on Thursday, the contract had retreated to 83.20 and the spot opened at 83.12. Apart from NDF, the central bank has been likely supplying dollars via public sector banks in the local OTC market, traders said.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Nimesh Vora, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, U.S, BIS, Bank of International, New, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, U.S, Asia, New York

Delegates walk past the logos of the BRICS summit during the 2023 BRICS Summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 23, 2023. WHY DOES LULA WANT A BRICS CURRENCY? A BRICS currency "increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities," he told the summit's opening plenary session. In July, India's foreign minister said, "there is no idea of a BRICS currency". WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES OF SETTING UP A BRICS CURRENCY?

Persons: GIANLUIGI, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, LULA, doesn't, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Lesetja Kganyago, you've, Kganyago, Herbert Poenisch, Putin, Rachel Savage, Ethan Wang, Marcela Ayres, Gabriel Stargardter, Naomi Rovnick, Libby George, Marc Jones, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Mercosur, South, Zhejiang University, Federal Reserve, FX, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International, Thomson Locations: Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, Rights JOHANNESBURG, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Russian, videolink, African, Ukraine, Beijing, Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro, London

☆ Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Nyshka Chandran | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A new regional cross-border payment system recently implemented by Southeast Asian nations could deepen financial integration among participants, bringing the ASEAN bloc closer to its goal of economic cohesion. A unified cross-border digital payment system will "foster a sense of regionalism and ASEAN-centrality in managing international affairs," he added. How it worksBy connecting QR code payment systems, funds can be sent from one digital wallet to another. For instance, Malaysian tourists in Singapore can make a payment with Malaysian ringgit funds in their Malaysian digital wallet when making a transaction. Or, a Malaysian worker in Singapore can send Singapore dollar funds in a Singaporean digital wallet to a recipient's wallet in Malaysia.

Persons: Joko Widodo, Nico Han Organizations: Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Analysts, U.S, ., Southeast, Risk Intelligence, Malaysian, Singapore, Bank of International Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, The Philippines, Southeast Asia, Malaysian, Switzerland

Both theory and past practice suggest that higher interest rates weigh on investment and consumption, crimping companies’ profit and forcing them to reduce hiring or lay off staff. It could also be that higher interest rates weigh on prices by pushing up borrowing costs and weakening financial markets, without requiring widespread layoffs. But economic forecasters have wrongly anticipated layoffs and higher unemployment for much of the past year. Until disinflation becomes less immaculate, the central bank has the unholy problem of choosing between lessons from history and those of the last 12 months. The U.S. unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June, the BLS announced on July 7.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Powell, There’s, Ben Winck, Francesco Guerrera, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, Wall, U.S, Fed, UBS –, Bank of International, Workers, United, Refinitiv, Consumer, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, payrolls, Washington, London

☆ Welcome to the Dollar War: a Global Fight Over America's Economic Dominance
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

The US even reminded everyone just how influential the buck is when it effectively froze Russia out of the global financial system with sanctions last year. Becoming the issuer of the global reserve currency is about trust. The US has controlled the global reserve currency for 102 years — giving it a special status in the world economy. Still, given that the country controlling the global reserve currency holds that status of an average of 94 years, history seems to indicate it's high time for a successor. Why shouldn't the financial world resemble something closer to the mosaic of cultures, politics, and nations that exists today?

Persons: Chenzi Xu, there's, Xu, —, Ron Temple, Gregory Brew, Eurasia's Brew, dollarizing, Stephen Jen, Jen, we've, Stanford's Xu, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Josh Lipsky, " Lipsky, It's, Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Loeys, dollarization, Wise, Lazard's Temple, isn't, Phil Rosen Organizations: Stanford, Federal, European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Lazard, Publishing, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, Eurasia Group, Sandman's, Eurizon, IMF, Atlantic Council, JPMorgan Locations: Russia, Israel, France, China, America, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bolivia, Iraq, South Africa, Beijing

☆ Russia is egging Southeast Asian countries to ditch the dollar to get around Western sanctions — and it shows just how desperately it wants to save its flagging economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's foreign minister urged Southeast Asian countries to trade with Russia using local currencies. urged Southeast Asian countries to trade with Russia using local currencies. Even President Vladimir Putin championed the use of local currencies for trade in recent weeks. Russia's trade with Southeast Asia fell 4.4% in 2022 amid sweeping sanctions against Moscow. Russia's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — a 10-country intergovernmental bloc — fell by 4.4% in 2022 from a year ago.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, it's, Sergey Lavrov, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Phil Rosen, Lavrov, Kompas Organizations: Moscow, Service, Association of Southeast, Yale, Russia, Bank of International Locations: Russia, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Moscow, Indonesia, Nations, Ukraine, Russian, Indonesian, Europe

☆ A top economist warns the US dollar will 'no longer be the dominant world currency' as trade in Chinese yuan rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"We've got other things happening outside of the dollar world," Paul Greunwald said, per Reuters. The US dollar "will continue to be a leading world currency," Greunwald said, per Reuters. However, "it will no longer be the dominant world currency," he added. "We've got other things happening outside of the dollar world," said Greunwald, citing a growing volume of trade that's being done in the Chinese yuan as an example, per Reuters. Nobel laureate and economist Paul Krugman wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times on Friday that the greenback's dominance won't last forever — "because nothing does."

Persons: We've, Paul Greunwald, chimed, Paul Gruenwald, Greunwald, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Russia, Service, P Global, Reuters, Bank of International, New York Times Locations: Wall, Silicon, London, Russia

☆ It's not just China —India's now pushing a de-dollarization narrative by touting the use of the rupee for trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

India's pushing to internationalize the Indian rupee, according to a report from its central bank. The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency since the Second World War, playing a crucial role in the world's trade and financial system. In its Wednesday report, the RBI working group encouraged the opening of rupee-denominated accounts for non-residents in India and overseas. While the macro geopolitical environment is spurring countries to seek alternative currencies to trade with, there's long been uneasiness over the dollar's outsized dominance in global trade and finance. Just 0.01% of India's trade in goods was settled in the rupee last year, Bloomberg reported on Friday citing people familiar with the matter.

Persons: —, It's, India's, Narendra Modi's Organizations: Service, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of International, Bloomberg Locations: China, Russia, India, Moscow

☆ Hong Kong-listed stocks are about to be priced in yuan, giving China's currency another boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong-listed stocks will be priced in yuan on Monday, giving China's currency another boost. Two dozen stocks, including Alibaba and Tencent, will be traded in the yuan and the Hong Kong dollar. Alibaba and Tencent will be among the shares that will be traded in both yuan and the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the US dollar. Investors can choose to trade using Hong Kong dollars or yuan, which has seen significant volatility lately. The new Hong Kong trading program comes as Beijing tries to internationalize the yuan and challenge the US dollar's dominance on the world stage.

Persons: —, HKEX Organizations: Hong Kong, Service, Hong, Hong Kong Stock Exchanges, Reuters, Investors, Bank of International Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, Russia, China, Brazil, Argentina

☆ China's yuan has fallen to the lowest rate since 2014 by one measure, and Beijing is OK with that for now, FX strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's yuan is at the lowest since 2022 by traditional metrics as economic growth has disappointed. But one measure of its real effective rate puts the currency at the lowest since 2014. "So valuation-wise, renminbi is starting to look cheap," a Macquarie foreign exchange strategist said. However, expectations of economic stimulus from Beijing could lift the yuan, Trang added. That's due in part to relatively low volatility in currency markets and the yuan's gradual slope downward, she said.

Persons: renminbi, —, Trang Organizations: Macquarie, Service, China Foreign Exchange Trade, People's Bank of China, Bank of International, Macquarie Group, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, greenback Locations: Beijing, China

☆ Dollar dominance isn't going anywhere. Here are 5 myths about de-dollarization.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The dollar's dominance isn't at risk, three currency experts told Insider. Vocal observers, like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have warned that the threat of de-dollarization is real, as countries like China take measures to supplant the dollar. They debunked five myths and misconceptions that are commonly touted by dollar doomsayers:1. The dollar is losing its stance as the top currency in global tradeThis claim also isn't supported by data. Though the percentage of dollar reserves has slipped, he estimates it would take around 24 years for global dollar reserves to drop another 12%.

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

☆ How bad is the banking crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Spriha Srivastava | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed along with five other central banks announced coordinated action to reassure global banks. To make sense of those acronyms, GFC refers to the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, EZ crisis is the Eurozone crisis of 2009 onwards, temper tantrum likely refers to the taper tantrum of 2013, and the Covid 3/20 shock is when global markets went haywire in the early stages of the pandemic. So, you might be wondering: Just how bad is the banking crisis? "It means the banking crisis we've seen over the past few weeks has started a new chapter rather than reaching its ending." After the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) made it necessary for all European banks to issue CoCo bonds.

☆ Britain presses on with proposals for a digital pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Pound coins are seen in the photo illustration taken in Manchester, Britain September 6, 2017. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the implications of a digital pound - including privacy issues - had to be considered. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak asked the BoE to look into the case for a CBDC when he was finance minister in 2021. Unlike cryptoassets, the digital pound would be issued by the central bank and not the private sector and its value would be fixed. Instead they would have accounts with private digital wallet providers, which would provide digital pounds over public infrastructure.

☆ Bank of England and Treasury think UK is 'likely' to need digital currency, the Telegraph reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of England (BoE) and Britain's finance ministry think the UK is likely to need to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC) later this decade, the Telegraph newspaper reported on Saturday, citing an unreleased government report. The BoE declined to comment on the Telegraph article, but said a joint consultation on CBDC issues would be published shortly. BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe is due to give a speech on Tuesday to update the finance industry on the BoE's CBDC work. The European Central Bank is working on a digital version of its currency and is in the process of outlining the broader design. Last month it said it would not offer personal bank accounts but would allow person-to-person payments.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

Bitcoin balances on crypto exchanges - where retail investors typically transact - have fallen to around 2.3 million from its 2020 all-time high of 3.1 million, exchange Bitfinex said. "There are signs that a significant number of retail investors have been discouraged to the point of exiting crypto entirely," Bitfinex analysts said. DAVID VS GOLIATHCrypto retail investors losing money is nothing new. A study from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), conducted between 2015 and 2022, estimated that 73% to 81% likely lost money on their investments in cryptocurrencies. Eloisa Marchesoni, a trader who said she had about $2,000 on FTX she was unable to withdraw, is sure crypto will retain its attraction for smaller investors.

☆ China's digital currency passes 100 bln yuan in spending - PBOC
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Transactions using China's digital yuan surpassed 100 billion yuan ($13.9 billion) as of Aug. 31, China's central bank said on Wednesday, as the country continues its roll-out of a central bank digital currency. The spending involved 360 million transactions in pilot areas in 15 provinces and municipalities, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said, adding that more than 5.6 million merchants could now accept payments with the digital currency. China is at the fore of a global race to develop central bank digital currencies, although adoption is still in the early stages. Transactions using e-CNY rose from 87.6 billion yuan by the end of 2021, the PBOC said. The central bank also took part in the cross-border multiple Central Bank Digital Currency (mCBDC) Bridge trial developed by the Bank of International Settlements and conducted tests to connect with Hong Kong's local digital payment system, it said.

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