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☆ Why economists and strategists still say a recession is postponed, despite a startling inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.

Persons: —, Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China

☆ Home buying in the U.S. by county: Cost, availability, competition and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jasmine Cui | Jasmine Cui Is A Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

The conditions on the ground can vary widely across state and even county lines. The higher the index value, the higher the difficulty. A low index value, of 10 for example, suggests better purchasing conditions for a buyer — low interest rates, ample homes for sale. Chambers County, Texas, near Houston, is one of the 50 least difficult places to buy in in the country as of May, with low scores on scarcity, cost and competition. For July, the national Home Buyer Index was 85.3, nearly even with June and two points lower than it was this time one year ago.

Organizations: NBC, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chambers, U.S Locations: Chambers County , Texas, Houston, Coconino County , Arizona

☆ Investors believe the fears about the slowing economy are overblown and market is overreacting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500 is off by nearly 9%, and it could soon join the tech-heavy index. .VIX 1D mountain VIX On Wall Street, however, many investors expect the fears of a slowing economy are overdone, and that markets are overreacting. "We don't see an earnings recession, we don't see an economic recession," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The strategist expects the S & P 500 could fall into a correction, somewhere between 10% and 15%. To be sure, investors who aren't expecting a recession say any weakness in the consumer should continue to be monitored.

Persons: It's, Stocks, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, nonfarm, John Butters, —, Sam Stovall, Stovall, that's, aren't, Siebert's Malek, Jamie Meyers, he's, we've, it's, I've, Meyers, CFRA's Stovall Organizations: Nikkei, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, Bank of America, CFRA, Nvidia Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Why Paper Checks Refuse to Die
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Ron Lieber | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Target stopped accepting personal checks as a form of payment this month, which might inspire the following question: What took so long? Check fraud has more than doubled in recent years, and it costs at least a dollar for businesses to process each check they receive. In many industries, checks continue to be a popular form of payment, and sometimes they are required. According to consumer survey data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which tracks the percentage of payments that consumers make by check, the following industries receive the most check payments: Contractors, like electricians and plumbers, get 25 percent of their payments by check. Landlords, government taxing authorities and professional-service firms also receive double-digit percentages of their payments by check.

Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

☆ These are the least difficult areas in U.S. to buy a home: NBC News Home Buyer Index
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

10'000 Hours | Digitalvision | Getty ImagesThere are areas in the U.S. that are considered to be the least difficult places to buy a home, according to a new real estate indicator. When the counties are sorted by index rank, Iroquois County, Illinois is the least difficult market to buy a home, according to the NBC News Home Buyer Index. Economic Instability: Macon County, Tennessee has the most stable local economy among measured areas. And finally, economic instability considers an area's market volatility, unemployment levels and interest rates. The NBC News Home Buyer Index was developed by NBC News alongside housing experts, such as a real estate industry analyst and a bank economist from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Persons: Joe Murphy, —, Murphy, Danielle Hale, Jacob Channel, Hale Organizations: NBC, U.S ., Finance, NBC News, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Development, . Census, Federal, Fed, who've Locations: U.S, Iroquois County , Illinois, Somervell County , Texas, Imperial County , California, Macon County , Tennessee

☆ AI is replacing human tasks faster than you think
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s in addition to creative tasks for which some businesses are already relying on ChatGPT and other AI chatbots to assist, including crafting job posts, writing press releases and building marketing campaigns. The findings show companies are increasingly turning to AI to cut costs, boost profits and make their workers more productive. Nearly 60% of all companies (and 84% of large companies) surveyed said that over the past year they have already leaned on software, equipment or technology including AI to automate tasks employees previously did. Bosses are turning to AI for a variety of reasons, including to trim what they are spending on human workers. Human jobs will be replaced — but will be replaced by other humans using AI,” he said.

Persons: ” Duke, John Graham, Duke, ”, Graham, “, Reid Hoffman, ” Hoffman, Janet Yellen, Democratic Sen, Gary Peters, ” Graham Organizations: New, New York CNN — Corporate, Duke University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, ”, CNN, Survey, Atlanta Fed, LinkedIn, Democratic, Homeland Security, Government Affairs Committee Locations: New York, That’s, ChatGPT

☆ A low-cost way to protect against further market declines and position for an eventual comeback
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I want to protect further downside in the broader U.S. equity market despite the fact that S & P 500 has had an acute drop of more than 5% off its recent 2024 highs. I do believe that we are still in a bull market, but the headwinds are strong in the current market conditions. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Lastly, markets are contending with corporate earnings season. Per my friends at Factset, the S & P 500's valuation on a forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.6. DISCLOSURES: (Long this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .

Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Big Tech, Trust Locations: Israel, Iran, Factset

☆ The gig economy, overemployment, and job switching have made it easier than ever to boost your income. But those strategies aren't always worth it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some side hustles come with a significant time investment and unpredictable pay. Related storiesNot all side hustles come with the time investment that ride-hailing does. But everyone with a side gig is faced with the same question: Are the extra working hours worth the financial reward? Only eight months after he started, he resigned from his two extra roles and decided to stop job-juggling for the time being. But all prospective job-switchers are faced with the same question: Are the uncertainties that come with a new job worth the financial reward?

Persons: —, switchers, Lyft, There's, overemployment Organizations: Service, Business, Harris Poll, Uber, Twin Cities, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Harris, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta, Minnesota, Texas

Rising gasoline and housing prices led inflation to increase 0.4% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. Meanwhile, a recent report on consumer spending from Mastercard found that retail sales excluding autos were up in February, with online retail sales up more than 9.1%. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release retail sales for February on Thursday with analysts looking for a strong 0.8% increase after January's drop. “A dip in retail sales to start the calendar year is common, however, this year January retail sales marked the biggest decline since March of last year,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at Vericast.

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Chip Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, “ Services, RSM, Mastercard, Apparel, Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of, Blue Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his script that it is not yet time to begin cutting interest rates on Wednesday in the first of two appearances this week on Capitol Hill. The Fed has taken interest levels to their highest in decades in a battle to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target. “The labor market remains relatively tight, but supply and demand conditions have continued to come into better balance,” Powell said. Job vacancies have declined, and nominal wage growth has been easing.”Powell and other Fed officials have repeatedly said they will judge whether to begin lowering interest rates on the state of incoming economic data. In his testimony, Powell did acknowledge that interest rates are “likely” at their peak for this economic cycle.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, ”, Lydia Boussour, EY Organizations: Capitol, Financial Services, Labor Department, ADP, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s

☆ Gold at one-week high as soft dollar, Middle East turmoil lift demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose to a nearly one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's safe-haven appeal. Gold prices rose to a nearly one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,019.99 per ounce, as of 0530 GMT, hitting its highest since Feb. 13. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,031.50 per ounce. Spot platinum dipped 0.3% to $903.04, palladium rose 0.7% to $956.66, while silver fell 1.2% to $23.12 per ounce.

Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Wang Tao, Jun Rong, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S ., Maritime Trade Operations, Market, Fed Bank of Atlanta, CME Locations: Mandab, Yemen, China

☆ Dollar steady as traders weigh economic data, yen fragile
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar was steady on Friday, on track for its fifth straight weekly gain, as investors take stock of economic data and firm expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, while the yen traded at the psychologically key 150 per dollar level. But overall market expectations on the timing of the first Fed cut and magnitude of the cut will continue to drive volatility in FX markets." "We will likely soon contemplate the appropriate time for monetary policy to become less restrictive," Bostic said. Investor focus has been on comments from policymakers, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due to give the Senate banking committee its biannual monetary policy update on March 7. The Australian dollar eased 0.20% to $0.651, while the New Zealand dollar is down 0.21% to $0.609.

Persons: Christopher Wong, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Jerome Powell, pare, Kieran Williams, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal, Asia FX, InTouch, Markets, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Singapore, U.S, Japan, Asia, Germany

Still, that is considerably below where inflation was in 2022 and much of last year. Along with the health of the labor market, the Fed considers inflation among the key economic data points to watch as it looks to start cutting interest rates this year. “If inflation comes in below expectation, the markets will cheer the welcome news that the economy and the job market can remain solid without increasing inflation. On Friday, more inflation data will be released with the January producer price index – a measure of what businesses pay for the products and services they sell. The PPI is often a predictor of future inflation as it shows prices that are early in the pipeline and often passed on to consumers.

Persons: ”, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Venkat Balakrishnan, Jerome Powell, “, Dan North, “ Powell, Melissa Brown, Signifyd, ” Signifyd Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Dow, Industrial, Regan Capital, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Allianz Trade, ”, PPI Locations: North America

The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.

Persons: ”, BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, “, Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, “ Locations: U.S

Where does the economy go from here? Consumers are feeling better, expecting that the economy will do well and inflation will subside in the coming 12 months. While the economy ended last year on a strong note, the expectation was that it would cool down as the calendar turned to 2024. Last week, the International Monetary Fund boosted its projection for global growth to 3.1% from its October estimate of 2.9%, citing “greater-than-expected resilience” in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast has the U.S economy growing at a 4.2% clip in the first quarter.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, “, That’s Organizations: Federal, Labor Department, ” Comerica Bank, Fed, CBS, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Santander Bank, ” Locations: U.S, ” Santander

Consumers are happy, the stock market is near record highs, inflation is moderating and the labor market is defying all forecasts. Apparently, very little as the latest reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan confirmed on Friday. The final consumer sentiment survey for January posted a 13% increase to 79, almost a 10-point surge from December’s 69.7 reading, echoing earlier estimates. “This morning’s strong jobs report diminished the chances of the Fed cutting in March,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. This means businesses are in a good position despite the macro headwinds and uncertainty about growth expectations.”

Persons: “, ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, –, David Royal, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, LPL

“Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations,” Hsu added. “Like December, there was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, and geography,” Hsu said. There may, however, be some relief in 2024 as mortgage rates fall in line with reduced interest rates from the Federal Reserve. “Mortgage rates will continue to remain a wild card for home shoppers,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months."

Persons: Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, ”, Danielle Hale, Lawrence Yun Organizations: University of Michigan, Republicans, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, “, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s Locations: “, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

☆ The Fed could cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024. Here are 7 quotes from central bankers that hint at what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal

"We were an early adopter," said Morgan, who served as past president for Tennessee Jump$tart, an independent affiliate of the national Jump$tart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy, which championed the policy. While financial literacy has long been a priority, the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a wave of state-level legislation nationwide, said Morgan, who also served on the board of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission. "The work is never done," said Bill Parker, director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, which aims to incorporate personal finance into schools "as early as possible." Bill Parker Director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy CommissionThe Commission has outlined priorities in its five-year strategic plan, which has included thought leadership and state-level advocacy for expanded financial literacy programming. Numerous studies have highlighted the benefits of teaching children financial literacy at an early age.

Persons: chris Ryan, Istock, Jackie Morgan, Morgan, We've, there's, Bill Parker, Parker Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's, Tennessee, Tennessee Financial Literacy, U.S, Finance, Council for Economic Education, Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, Tennessee Financial Locations: —, Tennessee, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Nashville, U.S, , Tennessee

The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.

Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, “, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S

☆ Americans broke a record for spending on Black Friday, but it is just hiding a bigger problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Many are delaying the cost as buy now, pay later programs are expected to have their biggest month ever. Many are paying via "buy now, pay later" platforms such as Klarna or Afterpay, which let shoppers pay in installments every week or month. Buy now, pay later also allows people to borrow less expensively as they get the pricing interest-free if paid off in time. Indeed, the Fed's "2022 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking" found that 83% of respondents paid off their buy now, pay later programs on time. Compounding the problem is that people tend to spend more when using buy now, pay later programs, suggesting an overconfidence in what they can afford.

Persons: —, Salesforce, Beryl Tomay, Klarna, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Kraig, Foreman Organizations: Black, Service, Adobe, Mastercard, CNBC, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Household Economics, Social Science Research Network, Wealth Management Locations: Landsberg

☆ Americans broke a record for spending on Black Friday, but it's just hiding a bigger problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

☆ Downturn in Canada's economy seen deepening if US growth fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Canadian central bank expects that the economy will avoid a recession, and last month forecast growth of 0.8% for both the third and fourth quarters. Since then, preliminary data has indicted a shallow economic contraction for a second straight quarter in the third quarter. Analysts say that if U.S. activity slows, then the Canadian economy could shrink in the current quarter as well. BMO projects that U.S. growth will slow to 0.9% in the fourth quarter and that Canada's economy will shrink 1%. The potential for further weakening in the Canadian economy is already evident in money markets.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Karl Schamotta, Sal Guatieri, Stephen Brown, Brown, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Roberts Bank, REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, BMO, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Delta, British Columbia, Canada, United States, Bank of Canada, Canadian, U.S, sniffles, North America

☆ Fed's Bostic, cheered by jobs data, still leans against further rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, weighing in after the release of the latest round of jobs data, said on Friday that the economy's current path appears to indicate that further interest rate increases will not be required. Even so, he said, "there's still a lot that’s going to happen between now and even the next meeting. The jobs report came after the Fed earlier this week held its short-term interest rate target at the 5.25% to 5.5% level it has been at since late July. The Fed preserved the option to raise rates further but most investors believe it won't, and the jobs data helped bolster the case for no further action. Bostic said he is not looking for the U.S. to have a recession as part of his current forecast.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic, We're, I'm, Michael S, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fed, Thomson

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