But the headline number masked a more malignant trend, with all key components of core inflation accelerating. "Rising core inflation means that not much will sway the European Central Bank from the hawkish path it set out late last year," ING economist Bert Colijn said. The recession was expected to push up unemployment, naturally dampening price pressures. But employment, already at a record high, is actually going up, not down. "The delayed passthrough of high production costs and a still-strong labour market will sustain core inflation," Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics said.

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