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☆ Federal jobs are known for their stability. Now they could be in jeopardy as Musk pushes for deep spending cuts.
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Tech: We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers are shouldering much of it . We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers . AdvertisementElon Musk's government efficiency commission has been tasked with cutting government spending, raising questions about the future of millions of jobs. Tech jobs are mired in a recession. White collar hiring is in a huge slump, and tech workers are some of the hardest hit .

Persons: Trump hasn't, Tesla, Chelsea Jia Feng, Madison Hoff, Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk, Alice Tecotzky, John L, Dorman, Allison Robbert, Scott Bessent, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Natalie Ammari, Uber, Verily, —, Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk, Bluesky —, Jake Paul's, Netflix's Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, wasn't, Donald Trump's, Satya Nadella, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Google, Trump, Tech, Getty, Elon, Department of Education, Veterans Affairs, Department of Government, Social Security, Medicare, Twitter, Getty Government, Allison, Treasury, BCA Research, Goldman, BI, LinkedIn, Microsoft, China Economic, Security, Walmart Locations: Washington , DC, China, Brazilian, New York, Chicago, London

☆ As bitcoin wraps up a big week, the case is made for $200,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin is closing in on $100,000 for the first time, but could still double after that, according to BCA Research. That narrative gives Bitcoin its network effect: a positive feedback system in which the asset increases in value as more people use it. "Bitcoin, with a market value of $1.5 trillion, comprises less than 10 percent of the total market for non-confiscatable assets," he said. "As bitcoin's share of this market increases, and the supply of bitcoins reaches its upper limit, bitcoin's price has substantial upside." The price of bitcoin has soared 32% since Election Day in the U.S. last week.

Persons: Dhaval Joshi, Joshi Organizations: BCA Research, U.S, Metrics Locations: bitcoins, U.S

☆ Trump's proposed trade war raises the odds of a US recession to 75%, Wall Street strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said. Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments. In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump. On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.

Persons: Trump's, —, Peter Berezin, Donald Trump's, Berezin, Trump Organizations: Trump, BCA Research, Service, Yale Locations: China

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BCA Research's Marko Papic
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BCA Research's Marko PapicMarko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss what a second Trump term will mean for investing overseas, how it will impact the U.S. dollar, and more.

Persons: Marko Papic Marko Papic Organizations: BCA Research, Trump, .

☆ Trump will structurally break away from traditional U.S. policies
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a wild ride in Trump's 2nd term as he structurally breaks away from traditional U.S. policiesMatt Gertken from BCA Research says Trump's economic policies could push inflation higher, which is the very issue that caused the Democrats' defeat in this election.

Persons: Matt Gertken Organizations: BCA Research Locations: Trump's, U.S

☆ How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China

☆ China's attempts to save its flailing housing market haven't boosted confidence among top Wall Street analysts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its struggling property market. AdvertisementChina officials have directed a wave of stimulus measures at the country's beleaguered property market, but the effort hasn't done much to impress Wall Street experts. On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its flailing housing market, including quicker access to credit for developers and renovations in run-down urban areas. "While a step in the right direction, these stimulus measures are so far falling short of the scope and scale needed to reflate the Chinese economy. But Yingrui Wang, China economist at AXA Investment Managers, says that optimism could be short-lived as the housing stimulus lacks detail.

Persons: —, Wall, Goldman Sachs, haven't, Yingrui Wang, Wang Organizations: Service, Ministry of Housing, Ministry, BCA Research, AXA Investment, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, China's

☆ Why China's stimulus is just a 'band-aid' on a structural problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhy China's stimulus is just a 'band-aid' on a structural problemMarko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, and Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the impact of China's stimulus, the role politics will play in the country's growth, and more.

Persons: Marko Papic, Fred Kempe, CNBC's Organizations: BCA Research, Atlantic Council

☆ Global trade at risk as tensions escalate in South China Sea
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Dylan Butts | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A vessel identified by the Philippine Coast Guard as "Chinese maritime militia" (back R) and a China Coast Guard vessel (front R) sailing near the Philippine military chartered Unaizah May 4 (L) during its supply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on March 5, 2024. Some of the world's busiest shipping lanes are at risk due to rising tensions in the South China Sea, experts warn. In recent months, skirmishes have escalated in the highly-contested South China Sea – a marginal sea in the Western Pacific ocean that's a crucial trade route for China, Japan and India, three of the world's biggest economies. These developments in the South China Sea should be on the radar of global markets and supply chains due to the importance of these waterways to international trade, according to Marko Papic, chief global geo-macro strategist at BCA Research. "The South China Sea is the most valuable shipping lane in the world in terms of the value of trade that transits through it," Papic told CNBC, noting that conflict there poses obvious risks to global shipping.

Persons: Thomas Shoal, Marko Papic, Papic Organizations: Philippine Coast Guard, China Coast Guard, Philippine, Unaizah, Beijing, BCA Research, CNBC Locations: China, South China, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, South, U.S

☆ Fed minutes: Aggressive rate cuts don't feel right, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed minutes: Aggressive rate cuts don't feel right, strategist saysDhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, discusses the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting and the state of the U.S. economy.

Persons: Dhaval Joshi Organizations: BCA Research, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ US recession 'lurks' early in 2025 as labor market continues to deteriorate: BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUS recession 'lurks' early in 2025 as labor market continues to deteriorate: BCA ResearchDoug Peta of BCA Research raises his concerns about the US consumer as compensation and borrowing continues to weaken – and the impact that could have on the US economy.

Persons: Doug Peta, – Organizations: Research

☆ A recession is imminent and favored tech stocks set to crater like the 'Nifty Fifty' did, BCA Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The rise and fall of the "Nifty Fifty" stocks in the 1970s is a cautionary tale for investors in the Magnificent Seven craze, according to BCA Research. The "Nifty Fifty" refers to a loose group of stocks including Coca-Cola , IBM , Xerox and Pfizer , that rose to prominence in the 1970 to 1973 bull market. The comments from BCA come as the Magnificent Seven stocks continue powering the market to new heights despite a modest pullback this summer. The surge stems from ongoing bets around growth stocks and the artificial intelligence theme, especially as the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia in 2024 There are plenty of differences between the Nifty Fifty and the Magnificent Seven, Peta said, including megacap tech names' longer track record of outperforming the market.

Persons: Doug Peta, BCA's, Peta Organizations: BCA Research, IBM, Xerox, Pfizer, BCA, Federal Reserve, Nvidia

☆ Commodity prices to rise amid increasing geopolitical tensions, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCommodity prices to rise amid increasing geopolitical tensions, says strategistMarko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, discusses how rising geopolitical tensions could affect commodity prices.

Persons: Marko Papic Organizations: BCA Research

☆ 'Buy everything in China' is a message I agree with, says BCA Research's Papic
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Buy everything in China' is a message I agree with, says BCA Research's PapicAnna Ashton, Ashton Analytics founder, and Marko Papic, BCA Research chief global geo-macro strategist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss China's latest stimulus measures, how to apply what the Chinese did today to an investor's own portfolio, and much more.

Persons: Anna Ashton, Ashton, Marko Papic Organizations: Ashton Analytics, BCA Research Locations: China

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Ashton Analytics' Anna Ashton and BCA Research's Marko Papic
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Ashton Analytics' Anna Ashton and BCA Research's Marko PapicAnna Ashton, Ashton Analytics founder, and Marko Papic, BCA Research chief global geo-macro strategist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss China's latest stimulus measures, how to apply what the Chinese did today to an investor's own portfolio, and much more.

Persons: Anna Ashton, Marko Papic Anna Ashton, Ashton, Marko Papic Organizations: Ashton Analytics, BCA Research

☆ 2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board

☆ Big names like David Tepper and 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry are quietly upping their bets on the Chinese economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

From property woes to sluggish economic data, China appears to be suffering from long Covid. Wall Street turns bullishBillionaire investors, including Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper and "Big Short" investor Michael Burry, recently revealed they are sticking to their China bets. The famed investor loaded up on Alibaba stock in the second quarter, revealing an $11.2 million position in the company. That makes Alibaba Burry's largest holding, with other Chinese tech stocks including Baidu and JD.com also featuring on Burry's portfolio. Meanwhile, BCA Research recently upgraded Chinese onshore stocks to overweight, with China strategist Jing Sima expecting Chinese onshore stocks to passively outperform global equities.

Persons: Jiang Sheng, It's, Ted Alexander, CNBC's, David Tepper, Michael Burry, Alibaba, Tepper, Burry, JD.com, Jing Sima, George Boubouras, Goldman Sachs, Song Zhiyong, Eric Lin Organizations: Visual China, Getty, Appaloosa Management, KE Holdings, Baidu, BCA Research, K2 Asset Management, CNBC, Bank of America, National Bureau of Statistics, China's Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Administration, Asia Pacific Summit for Aviation Safety, Paris Olympic Games, Greater, Greater China Research, UBS Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Europe, Greater China

☆ Brazil recently hit a record high. Why further gains may be harder to come by
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brazilian stocks have been on a tear, but stubborn inflation could grind the recent rally to a stop. It's a work in progress, and most likely will require further rate hikes by the central bank." BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan agreed that the Brazilian central bank is unlikely to hike rates for very long. Against this backdrop, Budaghyan advises clients steer clear of Brazilian stocks in the near term. U.S. investors who want exposure to the Brazilian stock market can obtain it through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) .

Persons: Bovespa, Fernando Haddad, Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Arthur Budaghyan, Budaghyan Organizations: U.S . Federal, CNBC, U.S, Fed, BCA, Banco, MRB Partners Locations: Lower U.S, overcompensate, America, Banco Central, Brazil, U.S

☆ Harris or Trump: Does it matter for China who wins the election?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Casanova's view is shared by other experts who have said that both the Republican and the Democratic presidential nominees — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — will remain tough on China. U.S. trade ties with China will remain tense no matter who wins the election in November, according to Carlos Casanova, senior economist at Swiss private bank UBP. Stronger tariffs by Harris cannot be ruled out either, given Biden not only retained Trump's tariffs, he piled on more. During the debate, Harris did not give specifics on her China policy, but said that "a policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century." So it doesn't matter who wins the election," Casanova told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris —, Carlos Casanova, Trump, Harris, Eswar Prasad, Biden, Casanova, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Marko Papic, it's Organizations: Republican, Democratic, CNBC, U.S, Cornell University, America, BCA Research Locations: Yantai, China, China . U.S, Swiss, U.S, United States, Europe, Beijing

☆ We didn't get clarity on anything from the Harris-Trump debate, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe didn't get clarity on anything from the Harris-Trump debate, says strategistMarko Papic of BCA Research says the debate has not given any clarity on the outcome of U.S. presidential election, making it difficult for investors to make any macro bets.

Persons: Harris, Marko Papic Organizations: Trump, BCA Research

☆ Big investors worry the star managers they trust to run billions are getting distracted as the presidential election enters the homestretch
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hedge fund managers and private equity executives have become the go-to sources for donations for both parties. AdvertisementBut for the industry's biggest names who have become involved in politics, personal interests and values drive their giving. Advertisement'It's a people business'Mercer's global chief investment strategist, Rich Nuzum, advises institutional investors with more than $16 trillion to invest. "You're probably alienating some potential investors," he said, and that puts all investors at risk if it impacts a manager's business health. While LPs prefer their managers stay out of the headlines, Griffin has not been shy in recent years about picking fights.

Persons: —, Ken Griffin, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Griffin, Timothy Mellon, George Soros, Lone, Stephen Mandel, Jim Simons, Elliott's Paul Singer, Blackstone, Steve Schwarzman, Singer, Andrew, Rudy Koitchev, Rich Nuzum, Brian Payne, Payne, Chris Walvoord —, Nuzum, Soros, David Tepper, Mandel, Griffin waded, Zia Ahmed, Koitchev Organizations: Service, Republicans, Florida Gov, Business, SEI, BCA Research, Carolina Panthers, Appaloosa Management, Citadel, Citadel Securities, mater, Miami, city's Museum of Science, Industry, LCH Investments, Teachers Locations: Florida, Lone Pine, Washington, Harvard, Chicago, Afghanistan, Illinois

☆ A recession is coming in the U.S., and 'a few rate cuts' won't prevent it, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.

Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson

☆ Rate cuts won't prevent a recession and the economy is deteriorating 'quite rapidly,' investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management

☆ Chinese companies are already investing in the U.S., ahead of any Trump tariffs
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-18 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Rising U.S.-China tensions have sent Chinese companies the signal that regardless of who wins the White House, overseas investment is the way to go. Chinese companies' interest in expanding overseas has accelerated since the pandemic as growth slowed domestically. "Top sectors that received Chinese investment have shifted from tertiary to manufacturing industries," the report said. "Interestingly, while Chinese companies have become more active in expanding business in ASEAN countries, they tend to maintain their presence in the West, suggesting the 'ASEAN+1' strategy may have increased." Even in the U.S, where new investment from China has fallen sharply, the report said that "Chinese companies have not materially withdrawn from the US market either."

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Marko Papic, Yotrio, Hanbell, Harris, it's, Tim Walz, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: House, Republican, BCA Research, NBC, BCA, U.S ., U.S, Vital, Shandong Yuma Sunshade, ., Xinquan America Holdings, Industrial, Trump, Democratic National Convention, NBC News . Studies of, Chamber of Commerce, Electric, European Union, China Council, Promotion of International Trade, Oxford Economics, ASEAN Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, America, Japan, U.S . Shenzhen, Austin , Texas, Shandong Yuma, Yuma Texas, Shanghai, Singapore, Texas, Chino , California, Georgia, Taiwan, Shenzhen, Hong, Europe, Southeast Asia, ASEAN

☆ There are too many 'negative crosscurrents' for stocks right now, BCA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The list of negatives surrounding stocks is growing, according to BCA Research. Chief strategist Irene Tunkel warned in a note Monday that she doesn't "anticipate new market highs within the next three months — there are too many negative crosscurrents for equities." Others on the Street, including BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky and Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier , have warned investors to remain vigilant in the near term. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Wells Fargo initiated Rollins with an overweight rating, citing increased demand for pest control products and services. "Rollins' organic growth rates accelerated from mid-single to high-single digits during the pandemic and have remained at this elevated rate since," Wells Fargo said.

Persons: Irene Tunkel, Tunkel, Jonathan Krinsky, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Wells Fargo, Rollins Organizations: BCA Research, BCA, Bank of America's Locations: Atlanta

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