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☆ How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.

Persons: Harris, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China

☆ China's attempts to save its flailing housing market haven't boosted confidence among top Wall Street analysts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its struggling property market. AdvertisementChina officials have directed a wave of stimulus measures at the country's beleaguered property market, but the effort hasn't done much to impress Wall Street experts. On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its flailing housing market, including quicker access to credit for developers and renovations in run-down urban areas. "While a step in the right direction, these stimulus measures are so far falling short of the scope and scale needed to reflate the Chinese economy. But Yingrui Wang, China economist at AXA Investment Managers, says that optimism could be short-lived as the housing stimulus lacks detail.

Persons: —, Wall, Goldman Sachs, haven't, Yingrui Wang, Wang Organizations: Service, Ministry of Housing, Ministry, BCA Research, AXA Investment, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, China's

☆ Why China's stimulus is just a 'band-aid' on a structural problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhy China's stimulus is just a 'band-aid' on a structural problemMarko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, and Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the impact of China's stimulus, the role politics will play in the country's growth, and more.

Persons: Marko Papic, Fred Kempe, CNBC's Organizations: BCA Research, Atlantic Council

☆ Global trade at risk as tensions escalate in South China Sea
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Dylan Butts | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A vessel identified by the Philippine Coast Guard as "Chinese maritime militia" (back R) and a China Coast Guard vessel (front R) sailing near the Philippine military chartered Unaizah May 4 (L) during its supply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on March 5, 2024. Some of the world's busiest shipping lanes are at risk due to rising tensions in the South China Sea, experts warn. In recent months, skirmishes have escalated in the highly-contested South China Sea – a marginal sea in the Western Pacific ocean that's a crucial trade route for China, Japan and India, three of the world's biggest economies. These developments in the South China Sea should be on the radar of global markets and supply chains due to the importance of these waterways to international trade, according to Marko Papic, chief global geo-macro strategist at BCA Research. "The South China Sea is the most valuable shipping lane in the world in terms of the value of trade that transits through it," Papic told CNBC, noting that conflict there poses obvious risks to global shipping.

Persons: Thomas Shoal, Marko Papic, Papic Organizations: Philippine Coast Guard, China Coast Guard, Philippine, Unaizah, Beijing, BCA Research, CNBC Locations: China, South China, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, South, U.S

☆ Fed minutes: Aggressive rate cuts don't feel right, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed minutes: Aggressive rate cuts don't feel right, strategist saysDhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, discusses the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting and the state of the U.S. economy.

Persons: Dhaval Joshi Organizations: BCA Research, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ US recession 'lurks' early in 2025 as labor market continues to deteriorate: BCA Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUS recession 'lurks' early in 2025 as labor market continues to deteriorate: BCA ResearchDoug Peta of BCA Research raises his concerns about the US consumer as compensation and borrowing continues to weaken – and the impact that could have on the US economy.

Persons: Doug Peta, – Organizations: Research

☆ A recession is imminent and favored tech stocks set to crater like the 'Nifty Fifty' did, BCA Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The rise and fall of the "Nifty Fifty" stocks in the 1970s is a cautionary tale for investors in the Magnificent Seven craze, according to BCA Research. The "Nifty Fifty" refers to a loose group of stocks including Coca-Cola , IBM , Xerox and Pfizer , that rose to prominence in the 1970 to 1973 bull market. The comments from BCA come as the Magnificent Seven stocks continue powering the market to new heights despite a modest pullback this summer. The surge stems from ongoing bets around growth stocks and the artificial intelligence theme, especially as the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia in 2024 There are plenty of differences between the Nifty Fifty and the Magnificent Seven, Peta said, including megacap tech names' longer track record of outperforming the market.

Persons: Doug Peta, BCA's, Peta Organizations: BCA Research, IBM, Xerox, Pfizer, BCA, Federal Reserve, Nvidia

☆ Commodity prices to rise amid increasing geopolitical tensions, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCommodity prices to rise amid increasing geopolitical tensions, says strategistMarko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, discusses how rising geopolitical tensions could affect commodity prices.

Persons: Marko Papic Organizations: BCA Research

☆ 'Buy everything in China' is a message I agree with, says BCA Research's Papic
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Buy everything in China' is a message I agree with, says BCA Research's PapicAnna Ashton, Ashton Analytics founder, and Marko Papic, BCA Research chief global geo-macro strategist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss China's latest stimulus measures, how to apply what the Chinese did today to an investor's own portfolio, and much more.

Persons: Anna Ashton, Ashton, Marko Papic Organizations: Ashton Analytics, BCA Research Locations: China

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Ashton Analytics' Anna Ashton and BCA Research's Marko Papic
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Ashton Analytics' Anna Ashton and BCA Research's Marko PapicAnna Ashton, Ashton Analytics founder, and Marko Papic, BCA Research chief global geo-macro strategist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss China's latest stimulus measures, how to apply what the Chinese did today to an investor's own portfolio, and much more.

Persons: Anna Ashton, Marko Papic Anna Ashton, Ashton, Marko Papic Organizations: Ashton Analytics, BCA Research

☆ 2 under-the-radar recession signals are flashing red this month, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The firm's chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, pointed to two low-key labor market indicators flashing warning signals this month. AdvertisementHistorically, that number has always increased in the early stages of a recession, Berezin says. Meanwhile, recent survey data shows a narrowing gap in positive and negative labor market sentiment. On average, the peak in the labor differential comes nine months ahead of a recession, Berezin says. He says the data points to the contrary, with a slowdown in year-over-year labor force growth from 1.9% a year ago to 0.4% in August.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin, landers Organizations: Service, BCA Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board

☆ Big names like David Tepper and 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry are quietly upping their bets on the Chinese economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

From property woes to sluggish economic data, China appears to be suffering from long Covid. Wall Street turns bullishBillionaire investors, including Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper and "Big Short" investor Michael Burry, recently revealed they are sticking to their China bets. The famed investor loaded up on Alibaba stock in the second quarter, revealing an $11.2 million position in the company. That makes Alibaba Burry's largest holding, with other Chinese tech stocks including Baidu and JD.com also featuring on Burry's portfolio. Meanwhile, BCA Research recently upgraded Chinese onshore stocks to overweight, with China strategist Jing Sima expecting Chinese onshore stocks to passively outperform global equities.

Persons: Jiang Sheng, It's, Ted Alexander, CNBC's, David Tepper, Michael Burry, Alibaba, Tepper, Burry, JD.com, Jing Sima, George Boubouras, Goldman Sachs, Song Zhiyong, Eric Lin Organizations: Visual China, Getty, Appaloosa Management, KE Holdings, Baidu, BCA Research, K2 Asset Management, CNBC, Bank of America, National Bureau of Statistics, China's Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Administration, Asia Pacific Summit for Aviation Safety, Paris Olympic Games, Greater, Greater China Research, UBS Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Europe, Greater China

☆ Brazil recently hit a record high. Why further gains may be harder to come by
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brazilian stocks have been on a tear, but stubborn inflation could grind the recent rally to a stop. It's a work in progress, and most likely will require further rate hikes by the central bank." BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan agreed that the Brazilian central bank is unlikely to hike rates for very long. Against this backdrop, Budaghyan advises clients steer clear of Brazilian stocks in the near term. U.S. investors who want exposure to the Brazilian stock market can obtain it through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) .

Persons: Bovespa, Fernando Haddad, Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Arthur Budaghyan, Budaghyan Organizations: U.S . Federal, CNBC, U.S, Fed, BCA, Banco, MRB Partners Locations: Lower U.S, overcompensate, America, Banco Central, Brazil, U.S

☆ Harris or Trump: Does it matter for China who wins the election?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Casanova's view is shared by other experts who have said that both the Republican and the Democratic presidential nominees — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — will remain tough on China. U.S. trade ties with China will remain tense no matter who wins the election in November, according to Carlos Casanova, senior economist at Swiss private bank UBP. Stronger tariffs by Harris cannot be ruled out either, given Biden not only retained Trump's tariffs, he piled on more. During the debate, Harris did not give specifics on her China policy, but said that "a policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century." So it doesn't matter who wins the election," Casanova told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris —, Carlos Casanova, Trump, Harris, Eswar Prasad, Biden, Casanova, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Marko Papic, it's Organizations: Republican, Democratic, CNBC, U.S, Cornell University, America, BCA Research Locations: Yantai, China, China . U.S, Swiss, U.S, United States, Europe, Beijing

☆ We didn't get clarity on anything from the Harris-Trump debate, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe didn't get clarity on anything from the Harris-Trump debate, says strategistMarko Papic of BCA Research says the debate has not given any clarity on the outcome of U.S. presidential election, making it difficult for investors to make any macro bets.

Persons: Harris, Marko Papic Organizations: Trump, BCA Research

☆ Big investors worry the star managers they trust to run billions are getting distracted as the presidential election enters the homestretch
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Hedge fund managers and private equity executives have become the go-to sources for donations for both parties. AdvertisementBut for the industry's biggest names who have become involved in politics, personal interests and values drive their giving. Advertisement'It's a people business'Mercer's global chief investment strategist, Rich Nuzum, advises institutional investors with more than $16 trillion to invest. "You're probably alienating some potential investors," he said, and that puts all investors at risk if it impacts a manager's business health. While LPs prefer their managers stay out of the headlines, Griffin has not been shy in recent years about picking fights.

Persons: —, Ken Griffin, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Griffin, Timothy Mellon, George Soros, Lone, Stephen Mandel, Jim Simons, Elliott's Paul Singer, Blackstone, Steve Schwarzman, Singer, Andrew, Rudy Koitchev, Rich Nuzum, Brian Payne, Payne, Chris Walvoord —, Nuzum, Soros, David Tepper, Mandel, Griffin waded, Zia Ahmed, Koitchev Organizations: Service, Republicans, Florida Gov, Business, SEI, BCA Research, Carolina Panthers, Appaloosa Management, Citadel, Citadel Securities, mater, Miami, city's Museum of Science, Industry, LCH Investments, Teachers Locations: Florida, Lone Pine, Washington, Harvard, Chicago, Afghanistan, Illinois

☆ Rate cuts won't prevent a recession and the economy is deteriorating 'quite rapidly,' investment strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management

☆ A recession is coming in the U.S., and 'a few rate cuts' won't prevent it, says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.

Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson

☆ There are too many 'negative crosscurrents' for stocks right now, BCA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The list of negatives surrounding stocks is growing, according to BCA Research. Chief strategist Irene Tunkel warned in a note Monday that she doesn't "anticipate new market highs within the next three months — there are too many negative crosscurrents for equities." Others on the Street, including BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky and Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier , have warned investors to remain vigilant in the near term. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Wells Fargo initiated Rollins with an overweight rating, citing increased demand for pest control products and services. "Rollins' organic growth rates accelerated from mid-single to high-single digits during the pandemic and have remained at this elevated rate since," Wells Fargo said.

Persons: Irene Tunkel, Tunkel, Jonathan Krinsky, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Wells Fargo, Rollins Organizations: BCA Research, BCA, Bank of America's Locations: Atlanta

☆ Markets just had the most volatile week since the pandemic outbreak — What we learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."

Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan

☆ To woo investors, hedge funds are reviving a strategy left for dead post-crisis — supercharged index investing
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Read previewFaced with higher rates and a daunting fundraising climate, hedge funds are wooing investors with a seemingly antithetical pitch: index investing with a twist. Hedge fund industry insiders are abuzz right now about "portable alpha," a blast-from-the-past strategy that's undergoing a revival. According to the Morgan Stanley white paper, it can take on a variety of forms, including "dedicated portable alpha funds, portable alpha share classes, portable alpha feeder funds and other solutions." Advertisement"It's a nice way of smuggling hedge funds into your portfolio if you're an allocator," said Jon Caplis, CEO of hedge fund research firm PivotalPath. He said much of the industry still hasn't woken up to the appetite for portable alpha solutions and the potential boon to hedge funds.

Persons: —, punchier, Kim Shaw, Morgan Stanley, There's, Shaw, Penny Novick, Morgan, Novick, Bill Gross, Myron Scholes, PIMCO's, Roark Stahler, Jon Caplis, Russell, PIMCO, Sabrina Callin, Brian Payne, Payne, Caplis, hasn't Organizations: Service, Trading, Business, Man, CME Group, BlackRock, Barclays, Russell Investments, Institutional, State, Investor, BCA Research, Teachers, Investors Locations: Winton, American, Illinois

☆ Strategist favors U.S. assets due to geopolitical uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist on why he favors U.S. assets due to political volatility and geopolitical uncertaintyMatt Gertken from BCA Research says despite signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. the country still has more robust growth due to productivity and technology gains over the long term.

Persons: Gertken Organizations: BCA Research Locations: U.S

☆ U.S. is heading into recession the next 12 months but market is ignoring that risk: Strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. is heading into recession the next 12 months but market is ignoring that risk: StrategistGarry Evans of BCA Research says market risk is "very much" on the downside due to economic slowdown in the U.S. and high-concentration on AI stocks in markets.

Persons: Garry Evans Organizations: BCA Research Locations: U.S

☆ The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts. The firm said the Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates. And perhaps most importantly, the Fed's plan to blunt any economic decline via interest rate cuts simply won't work. For example, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers is around 4%, compared to current mortgage rates of around 7%. That means even if the Fed cuts interest rates and mortgage rates decline, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers will continue to rise.

Persons: —, Peter Berezin, Berezin Organizations: BCA Research, Service, Federal, Wall

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Roaring Kitty, Nike flops, inflation on deck
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nike warningShares of Nike plunged 12% in extended trading after the sneaker giant slashed its full-year guidance, anticipating a 10% drop in sales for the current quarter. Roaring Kitty, back againChewy shares experienced a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, soaring as much as 34% following a cryptic post by meme stock influencer Roaring Kitty, before falling back into negative territory.

Persons: Matthew Friend, Nike's, Tim Wentworth, Kitty, CNBC's Michelle Fox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Micron, Nvidia, Treasury, Nike, Walgreens, BCA Research Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Lebanon, Greater China, China

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