DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Why one veteran economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump's victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's due to a recent contraction in the money supply, which preceded past downturns, he told NYSE TV Live. The US economy is still likely to slow into a recession next year — and Trump's election victory may have just made the economic outlook even more challenging, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2, one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to Federal Reserve data. The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-per-year at the end of September. Trump's protectionist economic policies also impose a "big negative" for the economy, Hanke said.

Persons: Steve Hanke, downturns, Johns Hopkins, who's, That's, Hanke, Trump Organizations: NYSE TV, NYSE, Federal Reserve, Real Locations: Atlanta

☆ The bond market is selling off after traders got their Fed forecasts wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Bonds have sold off as traders reassess the path of Fed Reserve rate cuts. AdvertisementThe bond market is in sell-off mode as traders reassess the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. That would be a big surprise to traders, with the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed next month. AdvertisementFed officials, for their part, have indicated they're likely to move cautiously, though more rate cuts are still their base case. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she expects interest rates will fall "gradually," and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid endorsed a "cautious and gradual" approach to cutting interest rates.

Persons: Bonds, —, Donald Trump, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Bloomberg, Bond, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal, Market, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis, Dallas, Kansas City, House Locations: Atlanta

☆ Insana: The market is on a hot streak, and these factors – not the election – are driving it
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.

Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Here's why inflation may look like it's easing but is still a huge problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Inflation is not deadDaly began her talk with an anecdote of a recent encounter she had while walking near her home. But the conversation encapsulated a dilemma for the Fed: If inflation is on the run, why are interest rates still so high? As evidenced by the young man's question, convincing people that inflation is easing is a tough sell. watch nowThe annual rate of CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, a vast improvement over the 9.1% top in June 2022. However, year-over-year spending increased just 1.7%, below the 2.4% CPI inflation rate.

Persons: Brandon Bell, Goldman Sachs, Mary Daly, Daly, Goldman, Jerome Powell, —, hasn't, haven't Organizations: Walmart, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, New York University Stern School of Business, Commerce Department, Fed, York Fed, Bank of America, National Federation of Independent Business Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, , Wyoming, Atlanta, York

☆ Why we're downgrading our solar stock Nextracker, plus the chipmakers bounce back
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Semiconductor stocks are rebounding in reaction to a beat-and-raise earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor . NEXTracke r: Shares of solar stock Nextracker are having another rough day, dropping roughly 3%. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. A logo of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is seen during the TSMC global RnD Center opening ceremony in Hsinchu on July 28, 2023.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, there's, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Amber Wang Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductor, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia, Apple, Taiwan Semi, ASML Holdings, Treasury, Atlanta, JPMorgan, Nextracker, Microsoft, Republican, Netflix, Procter, Gamble, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Center, Afp, Getty Locations: Taiwan, Hsinchu, AFP

☆ 5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. "If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said. The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

Persons: —, Brent, Deutsche Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Atlanta Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Iranian

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Shiny September days for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are dancing in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ A 'Roaring '20s' economy is becoming more likely as bullish factors stack up, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS predicts a "Roaring '20s" economy, assigning a 50% chance to such an expansion by 2030. Solid data revisions, along with Fed rate cuts, support the optimistic outlook. "It's no longer too soon nor too optimistic to suggest that the US will experience a Roaring '20s economy," UBS said. AdvertisementA slew of bullish factors suggest the economy could be headed towards "Roaring '20s" status, according to a Monday note from UBS. Advertisement"The bread crumbs suggest a policy reaction function that is directionally supportive of a Roaring '20s outcome," Draho said of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's full employment goals.

Persons: —, UBS's, Jason Draho, Draho, Jerome Powell's Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Atlanta, CPI

☆ Ron Insana: China's stock rally won't last because its economic problems run too deep
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

China's stock market has recently rebounded on the promise of further economic and market stimulus. The measures include cuts to a variety of interest rates , as well as support for China's flagging real estate sector . China's stimulus efforts The Shanghai Composite has rallied sharply in the aftermath of those moves but remains about 50% below its all-time high of nearly 6,000, last seen in 2007. These moves have failed to boost growth or lead to a durable and sustainable stock market rally. The U.S. stock market accounted for roughly 60% of global stock market valuation in 2023.

Persons: David Tepper, Let's, Ron Insana Organizations: Bank, Atlanta, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, European Union, U.S . Energy, Administration, The, U.S, Olympus, CNBC Locations: United States, China, It's, Shanghai, U.S, Beijing, Europe, Canada, European, The U.S, Russia, Iran, North Korea

☆ Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.

Persons: Steven Blitz, —, Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve

☆ The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ Dollar catches footing ahead of Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales had traders slightly trimming bets that the U.S. easing cycle will begin with an outsized interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first interest rate cut in more than four years at 1800 GMT, which will be followed by a news conference half an hour later. A rate cut is fully priced, with interest rate futures implying a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, after flirting with 70% a day earlier. Traders say the Fed's tone as well as the size of the rate cut will drive the next moves in the foreign exchange market. China's stock, bond and currency markets resume trade on Wednesday after the mid-autumn festival break, though it is a holiday on Wednesday in Hong Kong.

Persons: Nathan Swami, Swami Organizations: Federal, Traders, Citi, Australian, New Zealand, Sterling, Bank of, ANZ Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Asia, U.S, Japan, Atlanta, Singapore, Hong Kong, Bank of England

☆ The Fed needs to 'start getting out of the way' and deliver a big rate cut next week, famed economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economist Claudia Sahm urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Sahm cites solid inflation progress and a slowing labor market as reasons for the big rate cut. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve "absolutely" needs to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut next week, according to famed economist Claudia Sahm. We need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut, and then be ready to do more," Sahm said. AdvertisementInvestors are undecided as to what the Fed will do at its FOMC meeting next week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a near 50/50 split probability between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut as of Friday morning.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, Powell, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, CNBC, Fed, Atlanta

☆ All the data is pointing to a soft landing in the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is not facing a recession, says Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. Sløk cites strong employment data, wage growth, and consumer spending as key indicators. AdvertisementThe US economy is cruising toward a soft landing with no recession on the table, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. "Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer spending has been accelerating in recent weeks," Sløk said. That's not something you see right before a recession hits the economy, according to Sløk.

Persons: Torsten Sløk, Sløk, — Organizations: Service, Sløk, Atlanta

☆ Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can't wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank's target. The Fed's preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum," he said. Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed's target as the labor market moderates.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's Locations: Atlanta

☆ US Job Market Is Getting Worse, Unemployment Rising. Fed Needs to Cut.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But increasingly, there are signs that the job market is losing some steam. Whether it's hard data like the unemployment rate or sentiment-based surveys of businesses, it's clear that the labor market has cooled off. It's clear that the Federal Reserve should be the force to slow down the sliding job market. The job market is at an inflection pointThe emergence of the US from the worst of the pandemic shutdowns in early 2020 helped usher in a historic boom for the labor market. If 3% growth could not keep unemployment from climbing in 2023, why would the unemployment rate remain stable in 2024 if growth comes in substantially lower?

Persons: Beveridge, Taylor, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Fed, Atlanta, Federal Reserve

☆ Job switchers hoping for a big raise are in for disappointment
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewHere's some less-than-great news if you're looking to job-hop because of your pay: People changing roles likely won't be getting as big of a wage bump as past job switchers. However, the report said that "median pay raises appear to have moderated to around 10%" as of this past May. The drops in the median pay raise for job-to-job movers from 2022 to 2024 were felt across workers in all income groups, the Bank of America Institute found. Still, the report noted that lower-income Bank of America customers — those making under $50,000 a year — had the highest median pay gains. AdvertisementThe report said that those middle- and upper-income job seekers may "have somewhat less leverage and bargaining power in negotiating a raise on taking a job."

Persons: —, David Tinsley, Tinsley, there's, switchers Organizations: Service, Bank of America Institute, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, New, of Labor Statistics Locations: Atlanta

☆ Ron Insana: Why this jobs report should spur the Fed to cut rates in July
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It's time for the Fed to cut rates at the end of July. Add to that the moderation in the consumer price index , the producer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – and the need to wait for further signs of improvement seems like overkill. Also, if the Fed dials back policy later – rather than sooner – there will be claims of political interference if it cut rates immediately before the presidential election. The central bank has been dealing with an economy-crashing pandemic, a surge in prices and uncertainty over how its policies would affect the broad economy, inflation and consumer behavior over time. This is a factor that will likely drive inflation rates lower.

Persons: Adrian –, –, Mickey, Dow Jones, Joe Biden, Adrian . Go, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow, New York Federal, Atlanta, CNBC

☆ What the new Goldilocks job market means for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Business Insider looked at how components of the labor market have settled down, like wage growth. And that more boring but steady labor market could be great news for workers and job seekers. The US could be in a Goldilocks job market. Job switchers are seeing higher wage growth than people staying, according to the 12-month moving average of median wage growth from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. So what will happen to the Goldilocks job market?

Persons: Nick Bunker, Bunker, —, That's, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, " Pollak, Pollak, Job, Julie Su, switchers, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Service, North America, BLS Locations: Atlanta

☆ Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida sees possibility of fewer rate cuts than expected this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank's former vice chair said Friday. "If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts," Clarida said. A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022. "What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate," Clarida said. "Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting.

Persons: Richard Clarida, Jerome Powell, Clarida, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Commerce Locations: Atlanta

This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta

☆ An economist who recently forecast 9 rate cuts now predicts only 2 as growth picks up
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Macquarie economist Danny Doyle said he now expects just two interest rate cuts this year and no recession in 2024 or 2025. Doyle had previously expected as many as nine interest rate cuts just two months ago. One such economist is Danny Doyle, Macquarie's head of economics, who pulled a U-turn on Thursday when he slashed his 2024 interest rate forecast to just two rate cuts of 25 basis points a piece. That's fewer than the Federal Reserve's own forecast of three interest rate cuts this year. Doyle expects the Fed's first interest rate cut to happen at the July FOMC meeting, while the market expects the first interest rate cut to happen in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Danny Doyle, Doyle, Macquarie's Organizations: Macquarie, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's

☆ Wall Street heads into the week ahead worrying the rally to record highs is running out of steam
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry even as investors deliberate how much longer equities can maintain their record run. But questions remain for investors after some major disappointments in an intense week suggested more challenges ahead. Apple dropped 3% this week after reporting lackluster earnings, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elsewhere in corporate earnings, regional banks as represented by the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF slid 7% after poor results from New York Community Bank spurred investor fears of a wider contagion. Signs of market weakness For investors, there may be more issues in the market going forward in 2024.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Apple, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Russell, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, CNBC's, Sonders, Lehman, Raymond James, Josh Beck, James McCann, Abrdn, McCann, Rhys WIlliams, Williams, it's, Art Hogan, They're, Hogan, Estee, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Rowe Price, Philip Morris Organizations: Meta, Dow Jones, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Markets, Wayve Capital Management, Riley, Atlanta, PMI, Simon Property, Companies, Tyson Foods, Semiconductor, Caterpillar, Prudential Financial, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, GE Healthcare Technologies, Consumer, Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, PayPal, Brands, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Uber Technologies, Costco Wholesale, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, Rowe Price Group, ConocoPhillips, The Hershey Co, Philip Morris International, PepsiCo Locations: China

☆ U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S

Search resuls for: "Atlanta Fed's"

25 mentions found