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new video loaded: Who Are the Black Swing Voters? Recent episodes in Latest VideoWhether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world. Whether it’s reporting on conflicts abroad and political divisions at home, or covering the latest style trends and scientific developments, Times Video journalists provide a revealing and unforgettable view of the world.

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☆ What Kamala Harris Learned From a Bruising 2020 Primary
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Astead W. Herndon | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The best day of Kamala Harris’s 2020 presidential campaign was its first. In that speech, delivered in January 2019, Ms. Harris owned her record as a prosecutor, told personal stories about the impact of her family and multicultural upbringing, and struck fear in the heart of her Democratic rivals. The argument for her candidacy at the time was similar to the arguments that voters and political analysts are making in her favor right now. Mr. Biden had the experience, Ms. Warren had the policy, and Senator Bernie Sanders had the progressive appeal — but Ms. Harris was the candidate who could theoretically do all the above. It did not matter that in that crowded primary contest, few voters said she was their first choice.

Persons: Kamala Harris’s, Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Harris, Biden, Warren, Bernie Sanders Organizations: CNN, Democratic Locations: savaged, Oakland, Calif

It has been less than two weeks since President Biden dropped his re-election bid and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Already, Ms. Harris has closed the gap with former President Donald J. Trump in some national polls. The Harris campaign said it had raised more than $200 million in a week. Ms. Harris’s supporters even broke attendance records on Zoom, with one group gathering more than 160,000 people on a single call. We spoke to Zoom rally organizers, first-time campaign donors and people who were previously planning to sit the whole thing out.

Persons: Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald J, Harris’s Organizations: Trump

For decades, the mainstream Republican position on abortion rights was clear: Overturn Roe v. Wade and send the issue back to the states. But since June 2022, when the Supreme Court’s conservative majority did exactly that, Republicans have faced a question that few seemed to consider beforehand: What comes next?

Persons: Roe, Wade Organizations: Republican, Republicans

Arizona is a battleground state that both parties are desperate to win in November. And right now, supporters of abortion rights in the state are in the midst of gathering signatures to ensure that, along with the presidential race and a competitive Senate contest, enshrining the right to abortion in the state’s Constitution will be on the ballot this fall. The measure has broad support in the state, and Democrats are banking on that to drive a wide range of people to the polls to vote on the ballot measure — and, they hope, for Mr. Biden. But there’s no guarantee that will happen. For the next two weeks, we’re going to focus on how abortion rights could shape the 2024 election in Arizona.

Persons: Biden Locations: Arizona, state’s

In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, people have mostly been asking one big question. Over the past few days, our colleagues at The New York Times and at the Siena College Research Institute have been trying to answer that question. They spoke with 1,900 people they had previously polled to find out how they are currently thinking. But some have — and they are moving away from Mr. Trump. This week, Astead speaks with voters about how they are thinking about the presidential race after Mr. Trump’s conviction, including with people in one significant group: Trump supporters who said in October that if he were convicted and sentenced, they would back President Biden.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Astead, Trump’s, Biden Organizations: The New York Times, Siena College Research Institute Locations: Manhattan

While the political world waits for a verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, we wanted to take a moment to remember how we got here — especially the broader political context of the fall of 2016. Mr. Trump is charged with falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels as part of a scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Back in 2016, Mr. Trump was down in the polls and worried about losing support from women voters, who would, the thinking went, punish him at the ballot box for the lewd “Access Hollywood” tape and anything Ms. Daniels might make public. That of course is not what happened. And in the years since, assumptions about how women vote have come to feel more complicated.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Stormy Daniels, Daniels Organizations: Mr Locations: Manhattan

Elisa Gutierrez andAs he runs for re-election, President Biden is talking about one specific issue a lot: the economy. He emphasizes the nation’s low unemployment and slowing inflation, and even rolled out a catchy nickname for the good numbers: Bidenomics. The problem for Mr. Biden is that few Americans seem to agree that the economy is strong. They think the opposite.

Persons: Elisa Gutierrez, Biden

If the 2024 presidential election were a road trip, we would now be at the part where you start to wonder: Are we there yet? The matchup is set, but there’s still such a long way to go until November. And one of the things we’ve noticed about the questions that you’ve been sending in is that you’re starting to mix it up. You want to know what Donald Trump’s possible vice-presidential picks are, how down-ballot races are shaping up, and what difference celebrity endorsements could make.

Persons: you’ve, Donald Trump’s

Here’s what we know when it comes to the antiwar protests on college campuses and electoral politics: President Biden does seem to have a problem with young activists on the left. But whether or not he has a larger problem with young voters in general remains to be seen. Which is why one statement from a more mainstream group, saying the administration is on a “mistaken route,” is worth considering. The College Democrats of America. Which means, they’re the young people who would seem most likely to support Mr. Biden.

Persons: Biden, That’s, Mr Organizations: The College Democrats of America, Democratic National Convention

For years, Wisconsin has been one of the most heavily gerrymandered states in the country, with legislative districts that overwhelmingly favored Republicans. In fact, the maps were so one-sided that, even though the state has a roughly equal share of Democrats and Republicans, Republicans were able to lock in large majorities in the State Assembly and Senate. But earlier this year, the state adopted new maps, which have significantly changed the political landscape in the state for Democrats. They are newly optimistic. So after months of hearing about President Biden’s problems motivating the Democratic base, we traveled to the critical battleground state of Wisconsin to ask: Have new maps led to new energy for Democrats, up and down the ballot?

Persons: Biden’s Organizations: Republicans, State Assembly, Senate, Democrats, Democratic Locations: Wisconsin, State

astead herndonLast year, the comedian was Roy Wood Jr., a veteran of “The Daily Show” on Comedy Central —archived recording (roy wood jr.) Happy to be here. I don’t think you can ignore anything that the American people are bringing to you. So I think that’s where it ain’t funny to a lot of people. And I think that’s what we’re — those are the only two things we’re armed with is either laughs or yelling. But now do you want the funny guy that’s going to be in control of your uterus?

Persons: astead herndon, Jon Stewart, Wanda Sykes, roy, Dark Brandon, Roy Wood Jr, astead herndon —, I’ll, I’m, Clarence Thomas, There’s, Trump, it’s, Donald Trump, —, Biden, ” I’m Astead, ”, Showtime ”, that’ll, astead herndon Really, It’ll, astead, Jim Messina, Joe Biden, Rupert Murdoch, That’s, Harry Styles, Don Lemon, Harris, Ron Klain, exoticize Joe Biden, Scranton Joe, we’re, you’re, Obama, herndon, we’ve, Bob Dole, that’s, George Floyd, They’re, what’s, Roy, Buddy, who’s, Trayvon Martin —, let’s, Ludacris, Kim Kardashian, Ray J, Kardashian, astead herndon Roy, he’s, Joe Biden’s, It’s, I’ve, He’s, George Lopez, they’re, astead herndon I’m, there’s, John Oliver — astead herndon, “, Sarah Palin, Tina Fey’s, Nikki Haley, ain’t, Haley, Nikki Haley can’t, donald, Ron “ DeSanctimonious, astead herndon It’s, who’ve, Obama Obama, Lock, Hillary’s, Marco, You’re, Little Marco, Karine Jean, Pierre, astead herndon That’s, Donald Trump’s, Stormy Daniels, Jonah Bromwich, haven’t, jonah bromwich You’ve, We’ve, Michael Cohen, David Pecker, don’t, Trump — jonah bromwich, He’ll, biden, astead herndon Joe Biden, Let’s, She’s Organizations: White, Super, Comedy, “, Disney, The New York Times, Showtime, astead herndon, Trump, Biden, Paramount, BET, Scranton, Republicans, Florida, M University, Black College, Republican, Democratic Party, Democratic, Democrat, RFK, Party, Tea Party, SNL, Democrats, Tower, National, ”, AMI, Trump — Locations: Washington , DC, France, America, ” I’m Astead Herndon, herndon, Scranton, Tallahassee, Birmingham , Alabama, Birmingham, astead herndon, South Carolina, CPAC, Palestine, Israel, Manhattan, Florida, Tampa, Pennsylvania

Right now, President Biden’s clearest path to re-election in November seems to run through the middle of the country. Nebraska is one of just two states that distributes electoral college votes proportionally rather than with a winner-take-all approach. That means that, even though it’s a largely conservative state, Nebraskans sometimes still give one of their five electoral votes to a Democrat, as they did for Mr. Biden in 2020. This year, Nebraska and the up-for-grabs nature of that one electoral vote has caught the attention of the right-wing commentator Charlie Kirk, former President Donald Trump and his supporters. In recent weeks, they’ve mobilized and are throwing Nebraska’s unique electoral system into flux.

Persons: Biden, it’s, Charlie Kirk, Donald Trump, they’ve Organizations: Mr Locations: Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, . Nebraska

According to the Biden campaign, the event brought in more than $25 million. That fund-raising haul further tips the scales in the money race between Donald J. Trump and Mr. Biden — a race that, so far, the Democrats have been winning. And when two candidates are as well known as Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, there might be a limit to what money can buy. This week, we speak with the longtime Democratic donor Robert Wolf about the Radio City fund-raiser and why he has donated to Mr. Biden. And Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent for The New York Times, explains the vast financial gap between the candidates.

Persons: Biden, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Biden’s, Stephen Colbert, Mindy Kaling, Queen Latifah, Donald J, Trump, Biden —, hasn’t, Robert Wolf, Shane Goldmacher Organizations: Radio City Music Hall, Democratic, Radio City, Mr, The New York Times

The people who don’t vote are often left out of the political conversation. Campaigns don’t spend much money on them, and the media doesn’t devote much coverage to them. But to understand a presidential contest like the 2024 race — one that threatens to be extremely close — we have to understand not just the people who show up to vote, but also those who sit out elections.

Organizations: don’t

Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by Astead W. Herndon and produced by Anna Foley , Elisa Gutierrez and Caitlin O’Keefe . The show is edited by Rachel Dry , Lisa Tobin and Frannie Carr Toth . Engineering by Sophia Lanman and original music by Dan Powell , Marion Lozano , Pat McCusker , Diane Wong and Elisheba Ittoop . Fact-checking by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Renan Borelli, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda and Maddy Masiello.

Persons: Astead W, Herndon, Anna Foley, Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, Frannie Carr Toth, Sophia Lanman, Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Elisheba, Caitlin Love, Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Renan Borelli, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, Maddy Masiello

For a lot of his most loyal supporters, Donald Trump isn’t just the former president or even the potential next president. He is, in their view, the true president — because many of them believe the 2020 election was stolen.

Persons: Donald Trump isn’t, —

For the past few months, we’ve been asking our listeners to write in with questions, and we’ve gotten some great ones. Things like: How does polling work? Does Joe Biden’s stance on Gaza present a campaign challenge? And who might Donald Trump select as his running mate? But as we were sorting through them, an underlying theme started to emerge: People can’t seem to fathom that we’re careening toward a Biden-Trump rematch — and they want to know if anything could alter this seemingly inevitable reality.

Persons: we’ve, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump Organizations: Biden, Trump Locations: Gaza

But — astead herndon You don’t really talk — you don’t really talk about that on the first date? I don’t know how to — I don’t know if that’s the best way to phrase it. I just — they’re not for me if they’re really, really intense about it. And it is really, really important to some people and less important to others. speaker 8 I’m — I’m — I’m more pro-choice, to be honest.

Persons: ashley I’m Ashley, radia I’m Radia, ashley, astead herndon, ashley Yes, radia, we’re, we’ve, hasn’t, Donald Trump, it’s Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ashley Um, BELL, herndon, Elisa Gutierrez, Ashley, Radia, King of Prussia, elisa gutierrez, elisa gutierrez Oh, elisa gutierrez We’re, Don’t, I’m Astead Herndon, Trump, there’s, you’re, — astead herndon, Biden, It’s, that’s, I’m, COVID, didn’t —, aren’t, I’m John, astead, wasn’t, karen, Karen, karen Um, don’t, they’re, — astead, —, Pew, jess grose, Jess Grose, ” astead herndon, anna martin I’m Anna Martin, Elisa, anna martin, Jess, you’ve, astead herndon We’re, Anna, Taylor Swift, anna martin That’s, anna martin You’re, I’ve, anna martin Totally, jess grose Homophily, astead herndon Homophily, astead herndon I’m, — jess grose That’s, it’s, you’ll, anna martin Absolutely, jess grose Yes, anna martin Oh, Wariness, astead herndon Anna, anna martin Good, jess grose Oh, Jessica Grose, Anna Martin, Tom Suozzi, Republican Mazi Pilip, astead herndon He’ll, George Santos, astead herndon Donald Trump, Lara Trump, Sean Hannity, lara, Donald J, Ronna McDaniel, biden, Jason Kelce, Travis Kelce, Mama Kelce Organizations: The New York Times, Biden, Trump, Pew, “ Times, Democratic, Republican Party, Republican, The Boston Globe, Nassau, Nassau County Republican, Republican National Committee, RNC, South, GOP Locations: King, Philadelphia, herndon, astead herndon, It’s, United States, —, Boston, New, Nassau County, Israel

Our listeners have lots of questions about polling. At this point in a usual primary season, still weeks away from Super Tuesday, most of the attention of polling would be on who might capture the nomination. But this year, with the race all but set, we’re anticipating nine months of polling on two men we already know very well. Today, to prepare for that future and to answer the many questions on the subject, we go behind the scenes with the New York Times polling team. And Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, introduces us to “double haters” and other swingy voters he thinks will decide 2024.

Persons: Nate Cohn Organizations: Super, New York Times

Nevada is doing things differently this year. Or at least, it tried to. The first presidential nominating contest in the west takes place on Tuesday — and on Thursday. But that’s not what state officials were hoping would happen when they decided to move from a caucus to a primary in 2021.

Persons: that’s Locations: Nevada

President Biden has started to switch gears into campaign mode. On the trail, he’s particularly focused on South Carolina, which holds the first official Democratic primary contest on Saturday. And one of his first campaign events of the year took him to Emanuel A.M.E. Church in Charleston, for a speech that addressed the dangers of white supremacy. But a few minutes into the speech, he was interrupted by protesters calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. Today: The activists drowning out the president at campaign events.

Persons: Biden, Emanuel A.M.E, Abdullah Hammoud Organizations: Democratic, Hamas Locations: South Carolina, Charleston, Gaza, Israel, Dearborn, Mich

Caitlin O’Keefe and Rachel Dry , Rachel Quester, Paige Cowett andListen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicInside the Republican Party, a class war is playing out between the pro-Trump base, which is ready for the nomination fight to be over, and the anti-Trump donor class, which thinks it’s just getting started. Astead Herndon, a political correspondent for The Times and the host of “The Run-Up,” explains the clash.

Persons: Caitlin O’Keefe, Rachel Dry, Rachel Quester, Paige Cowett, it’s, Astead Herndon, ” Organizations: Spotify, Republican Party, Trump, The Times

Donald Trump’s victory over Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary made two things clear: The MAGA wing of the G.O.P. is ready for his coronation, while anti-Trump Republicans believe the race is far from over. From inside Trump’s victory party on Tuesday night, we hear from supporters of the former president and from the stars of his orbit, who see themselves as being on the verge of “obliterating the establishment.” And from Tim Draper, a billionaire venture capitalist who is backing Haley. About ‘The Run-Up’“The Run-Up” is your guide to understanding the 2024 election. New episodes on Thursdays.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Nikki Haley, Tim Draper, Haley, Herndon Organizations: Trump Republicans, New York Times Locations: New Hampshire

On Sunday, after a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses and with just two days to go before the New Hampshire primary, Ron DeSantis ended his campaign for president. His decision made it official: The race for the Republican nomination is now a head-to-head contest between two wildly different candidates, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump. And now, the famously independent New Hampshire voters are going to determine how serious a contest it is. First, how Haley’s recent change in tone and sharpening attacks on Trump will play with independents. And third, what the Democrats are up to — since there’s a contest here on that side too.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, there’s Organizations: New, Republican, New Hampshire voters, Trump Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire

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