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Goldman Sachs: staggered tariffs on China expected
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs: staggered tariffs on China likely, but don’t discount broader levy expansion on AsiaGoldman Sachs' Andrew Tilton talks about the 4.5% growth projection for China in 2025 and discusses the implication of tariffs on the country and the broader Asia economy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Asia Goldman Sachs, Andrew Tilton Locations: China, Asia
The vast networks of data cables that crisscross our world's oceans are crucial for almost every aspect of modern life. Related Video Ukraine's sea drones vs. Russia's Black Sea FleetDespite their importance, events this week have highlighted just how vulnerable the West's internet subsea cables are to attacks from hostile powers. Unlike Russia, whose internet cables mostly run overland, the cables Western countries rely on are deep under the sea — and it's an asymmetrical vulnerability Russia is signaling it could exploit. AdvertisementIn response to the threat, Western countries are trying to better protect existing cable networks or route data through satellites if they are disrupted. In the CSIS report in August, Murphy and other analysts called for the US to strengthen international coordination and enhance resources to protect existing undersea cable networks.
Persons: Boris Pistorius, Gregory Falco, KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV, Falco, Erin Murphy, Sidharth, Murphy, Sybille Reuter, Henri Kronlund Organizations: German, Financial Times, Sibley School of Mechanical, Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Getty, AIS, Emerging, CSIS, General Staff, Directorate, Cinia, West Locations: Baltic, Russia, China, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Ukraine, Russian, Vladivostok, Western Europe, India, Emerging Asia, Washington ,, London, Iceland
President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe
Chinese markets are back in the spotlight after a slew of government stimulus measures over recent weeks. "I think the right way of looking at what China's up to, really, is to see it as a process," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday. His comments come as China's Ministry of Finance signaled Friday that more fiscal support could come next year . Stocks to watch As investors ponder how to navigate the Chinese market, Bernstein said there are attractive opportunities in "growth and high volume stocks [aligned] with policy led rebound." Both Tencent and Meituan trade on the Hong Kong Exchange and in the U.S. as American Depository Receipts (ADR) under the ticker TCEHY and MPNGY .
Persons: Jordan, CNBC's, we've, Paul Cavey, Donald Trump, Carey, Stocks, Bernstein, — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng, Michael Bloom Organizations: Pella Funds, Ministry, Finance, Asia Econ, Healthcare, China Internet, Hong, Hong Kong Exchange Locations: Pella, Asia, Real Estate, downgrades, China, Hong Kong, Tencent, U.S
Stimulus for Chinese consumer key to spur growth, says economist
  + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStimulus for Chinese consumer key to spur growth, says economistPaul Cavey from East Asia Econ says China needs to target "new growth", instead of focusing stimulus on the real estate, as economic growth shifts further from the traditional property market.
Persons: Paul Cavey Organizations: East Asia Econ Locations: East Asia, China
China is expected to announce extra fiscal policy support on Saturday. The lack of consumer support in China's last stimulus package disappointed investors. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts expect authorities to pledge $283 billion of fiscal stimulus at Saturday's highly anticipated press conference. Chinese authorities followed up by announcing Saturday's press conference, which promised to introduce new measures centered on fiscal policy. Some analysts remain less sure about what fiscal stimulus will actually achieve on its own, pointing out that Beijing needs to pursue structural reforms to revive consumer confidence.
Persons: , Lan Fo'an, China's, Mark Williams, Stephen Roach, Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Finance, Analysts, CSI, Reform Commission, Capital Economics, Asia, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Yale
China's Ministry of Finance, pictured here in Beijing in 2021, is refunding taxes and cutting fees to support economic growth. China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on "intensifying" fiscal stimulus policies, the country's State Council Information Office said. Authorities are likely to affirm that at the press conference on Saturday, Zhao said. At the time, Chinese major indexes began to rally, surging over 25% as investors cheered on the slate of stimulus measures. Lan Fo'an, China's Minister of Finance, attends a press conference during the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 6, 2024.
Persons: Cong, Lan Fo'an, NDRC, Zheng Shanjie, Chen Zhao, CNBC's, Zhao, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Wang Zhao Organizations: of Finance, Bloomberg, Getty, China's Finance, Beijing, Investors, National Development, Reform, Authorities, China's Ministry, Finance, China's, National People's Congress, Afp Locations: Beijing, country's, Shanghai, Asia
A general view of the Shanghai Securities Exchange building is being shown in Shanghai, China, on July 16, 2024. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.26% to end at 39,380.89, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.2% to close at 2,71267. Traders in Asia were assessing September data on producer prices in Japan which rose 2.8% from a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted the inflation rate would come in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in August. The rally had been triggered by a blitz of government stimulus measures at the end of September.
Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Hong, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Ahya Organizations: Shanghai Securities Exchange, Dow Jones, Nikkei, Traders, Reuters, Investors, Holdings, Alimentation, CSI, China's Finance, Asia Locations: Shanghai, China, SINGAPORE — Asia, Pacific, 2,71267, Asia, Japan, Beijing
China's stock markets slumped after a 10-day rally that was driven by Beijing's stimulus announcement in September. Retail investors dominate China's markets, influencing sentiment and market movements. AdvertisementChina's top leadership has a problem with its economic stimulus: its own investors at home saw right through the hype this week. China's domestic stock markets slumped on Wednesday after a 10-day blitz culminated in a two-year high. China's domestic stock markets are dominated by over 200 million mom-and-pop retail investors, who account for about 70% of the trading volume.
Persons: , weren't, Jun Rong, that's, Vishnu, Li Qiang, Hele Qiao, Qiao Organizations: Investors, Service, People's Bank of China, Reform Commission, BofA Global Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Xinhua, Greater China, China's
Hong Kong CNN —China has set aside 200 billion yuan ($28 billion) for investment projects by local governments this year, as it promised to meet its own ambitious economic growth targets. China announced a 5% target growth rate in March, but a series of economic data over the summer has been so weak that economists were worried the goal might be missed. To help local governments struggling with mountains of debt, Beijing will provide 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) from the central government’s budget and an extra 100 billion yuan for investment projects, Zheng said. Nevertheless, investors were disappointed at the lack of details on new fiscal measures,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist for HSBC, told CNN. Fiscal measures, on the other hand, can include the use of taxation or other measures to impact public spending more directly.
Persons: ” Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Xi Jinping, Fred Neumann, What’s, Jia Kang, , … Jia Kang, , Xi, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Development, Reform Commission, HSBC, CNN, , Ministry of Finance, Citi, People’s Bank of China Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen
China's stimulus rally will be short-lived: AEI's Derek Scissors
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's stimulus rally will be short-lived: AEI's Derek ScissorsBill Bishop, publisher of the Sinocism China Newsletter, and Derek Scissors, Asia economist at the American Enterprise Institute, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss China's recent stimulus package, how long its rally can last, and more.
Persons: Derek Scissors Bill Bishop, Derek Scissors, CNBC's Organizations: American Enterprise Institute Locations: China, Asia
Local governments in China are still building highways, bridges and railways, as pictured here in Jiangxi province on Sept. 6, 2024. That's cutting significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts. watch now"Macroeconomic headwinds continue to hinder the revenue-generating power of China's local governments, particularly as related to taxes and land sales," she said. Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang — some of China's top provinces in tax and non-tax revenue generation — see non-tax revenue growth exceeding 15% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024, S&P's Huang said. China's national taxation administration in June acknowledged some local governments had issued such notices but said they were routine measures "in line with law and regulations."
Persons: Huang, P's Huang, Camille Boullenois, Laura Li, Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Robin Xing Organizations: Getty, BEIJING, Global, CNBC, NingBo BoHui Chemical Technology Locations: China, Jiangxi, Beijing, Zhejiang, NingBo, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Asia
HSBC: More interest rate hikes imminent in Japan
  + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC: More interest rate hikes imminent in JapanFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head global research Asia at HSBC, says that more monetary tightening is expected in Japan.
Persons: Japan Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Japan, Asia
Supporters of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold party flags as they celebrate Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony on June 9, 2024. Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesThere is an "internal battle" happening within India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party over inviting Chinese investments, as the country strives to become Asia's manufacturing powerhouse, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis said. This proposal was shot down by Trade Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday who said that there was "no rethinking at present" on allowing Chinese investments into India, Reuters reported. Experts told CNBC that Chinese investments are needed in India's solar panel and battery manufacturing sectors — two areas that a report, citing Indian government sources last week, mentioned could see easing restrictions on Chinese investments. India increased scrutiny on Chinese investments into the country, and also blocked several Chinese mobile apps including TikTok following the incident.
Persons: Narendra Modi's, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Natixis, V Anantha, Piyush Goyal, Modi, Garcia, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Harsh, Pant, Tauseef Mustafa, Jaishankar, Punit Paranjpe Organizations: Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Asia, Trade, Reuters, CNBC, Department, Promotion of Industry, Internal, Bloomberg, ICT, Communication Technologies, New Delhi's Observer Research Foundation, Afp, Getty, India's Foreign, Adani Locations: Asia Pacific, China, India, Europe, loggerheads, Eastern Ladakh, Tokyo, U.S, Mundra
China has, in its own way, signaled it wants to support specific kinds of consumer purchases. Authorities on Thursday announced the equivalent of 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in special bonds would go towards trade-ins and equipment upgrades — a significant expansion of an existing program. The 300 billion yuan ultra-long bond issuance is not a new government allocation, but rather a more detailed designation of a 1 trillion yuan ultra-long bond program announced earlier this year. "300 billion yuan is the largest equipment upgrade subsidy from the central government historically," the analysts said. Even the 300 billion yuan figure is split roughly between consumer-related trade-ins with business-side equipment upgrades.
Persons: Ding, Morgan Stanley, Tao Wang, Darius Tang, Corporates, Fitch Bohua, Michael Bloom Organizations: China Asset Management Co, UBS Investment Bank Locations: China, Beijing, Asia
Oil prices were up slightly on Friday on stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that raised investor expectations for increasing crude oil demand from the world's largest energy consumer. But concerns about soft economic conditions in Asia's biggest economies, China and Japan, capped gains. At the same time, inflation pressures eased, which kept intact expectations that the Federal Reserve would move forward with a September interest rate cut. Lower interest rates tend to boost economic activity, which can spur oil demand. Still, continued signs of trouble in parts of Asia limited oil price gains.
Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Commerce Department, Reuters, Federal Reserve Locations: Fort Stockton , Texas, China, Japan, U.S, Asia
Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTransshipments are 'big question' for Biden's EV policy, economist saysDerek Scissors, Asia economist at the American Economist Institute, discusses U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to quadruple tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and says "if there are transshipment barriers, then you're going to get a very serious Chinese response."
Persons: Derek Scissors, Joe Biden's Organizations: Biden's EV, American Economist Institute Locations: Asia
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Japanese don't necessarily want a much stronger yen: HSBC economistFrederic Neumann, HSBC's chief Asia economist, discusses the outlook for yen intervention, and says "the weak yen plays a functional role in Japan's reflation — the Japanese don't want necessarily a much stronger yen, so long as the depreciation is orderly."
Persons: Frederic Neumann, Japan's reflation Organizations: HSBC Locations: HSBC's, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTaiwan earthquake: Impact on export sector 'quite minimal' so far, economist saysPaul Cavey of East Asia Econ discusses how the earthquake in Taiwan might affect its economy.
Persons: Paul Cavey Organizations: Taiwan, East Asia Econ Locations: East Asia, Taiwan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFastest way to restore Chinese consumer confidence is stabilizing the housing market, says HSBCFrederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, says although there are policies trying to address that problem, "we haven't seen … quick enough moves to really dispel any concerns around developers."
Persons: HSBC Frederic Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: Asia
EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.
Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese leaders have pledged to achieve an ambitious growth rate this year, while reshaping its economic model to focus on technology innovation. On Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, which he said “will not be easy” to hit, given that a Covid-battered 2022 had provided a lower base of growth for last year. “The level of support is likely too little to rocket the economy to its 5% growth target this year,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s, referring to the measures announced by Li Tuesday. “China is walking a tightrope on the fiscal front between infrastructure stimulus and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] deleveraging,” said Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday. In order to achieve the ambitious 5% growth target, more specific stimulus is needed, such as increasing manufacturing investments, Liu said.
Persons: Li Qiang, , , Sarah Tan, Li Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Li, ” Nomura, Xi Jinping, Peiqian Liu, Liu, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, AFP, Getty, Goldman, Fidelity International, People’s Bank of China, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, , Asia,
China News Service | China News Service | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China revealed this week it aims to spend more than a billion dollars to bolster manufacturing and domestic tech in a bid to remain globally competitive, while divulging little new support for the struggling real estate market. Industrial support clearly ranked first on Beijing's priority list for the year ahead, according to three major plans released this week as part of China's annual parliamentary meetings. Chinese authorities in 2020 intensified a crackdown on real estate developers' high reliance on debt for growth. Within that second priority, the finance ministry said it would allocate 31.3 billion yuan for improving vocational education. The government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang gave real estate a similar level of prominence.
Persons: Frederic Neumann, Li Qiang Organizations: Seres, China News Service, Getty, Ministry of Finance, HSBC, UBS, National Development, Reform Commission Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING, Asia, Beijing, U.S
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