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First, when everything is being sold – and just about everything is being sold on Monday – someone is in big trouble. The spillover effect – exacerbated by a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut interest rates even as inflation cools – has put all assets on sale. This suggests that fears of a financial market problem are greater than those of a widening Middle East war. Should the situation become more tumultuous, the Fed could be forced into cutting interest rates between meetings. Indeed, when the Fed responded to the 1998 event by cutting interest rates , stocks went on a tear before topping out in 2000.
Persons: I've, Michael Gayed, Cashin, It's, Stanley Druckenmiller, Japan —, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nikkei, UBS, Term Capital Management, CNBC Locations: Japan, Israel, Iran
A rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield could weigh on stocks, putting a dampener on the market's recent rally, according to veteran trader Art Cashin. I would watch that yield on the 10-year. … We may get another retest of the higher level in yields, while all that Fed jabber is going on," he added. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury note begins to move above 4.55%, Cashin said that could put "mild pressure" on the equity markets. You can see that the tone of many of the commentators who were getting more and more bearish are now stepping back from that," Cashin said.
Persons: Art, Cashin, Stocks, We've Organizations: UBS, Federal, Traders
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKeep an eye out for the need for further bond issuance, says UBS' Art CashinArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Cashin's thoughts on yesterday's bond auction, important support levels to monitor, and much more.
Persons: Cashin Organizations: UBS, Art
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeteran trader Art Cashin explains why U.S. bond yields spiked despite geopolitical headwindsArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the sharp spike in U.S. bond yields and Friday's market action.
Persons: Cashin Organizations: Veteran, UBS
UBS' Art Cashin: October is the month of 'bottoms'
  + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS' Art Cashin: October is the month of 'bottoms'Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what breaks the spell of weaker equities, what to expect from equities this month, and more.
Persons: Art Cashin, Cashin Organizations: UBS, Art
There's more downside pressure coming for the market, according to Art Cashin, and it could come from an unusual source. "October is the month of bottoms, and usually they come after some kind of climactic sell-off. Cashin pointed to billions of tax payments which were earlier deferred in several states by the Internal Revenue Service due to storm and weather-related damage, that could put further pressure on the market. Cashin also pointed to rising Treasury yields as another source of pressure for the market. Aside from the deferred tax payments and yields, Cashin pointed to student loan repayments beginning this month and individuals' pandemic-relief money starting to dry up, which is taking out money from the banking system.
Persons: Cashin, CNBC's, Stocks Organizations: UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Internal, IRS Locations: California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's Huawei launch coinciding with Apple ban was a strategic decision, says UBS's Art CashinArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss China launching a carefully structured launch of the new Huawei phone, negative pressure on equities from bond yields, and unspent stimulus money impacting the Fed's monetary policy plan.
Persons: Cashin Organizations: Huawei, Apple, UBS Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email10-year yield will dictate exactly where things are going, says UBS' CashinArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Fed chair Powell's comments from Jackson Hole, current levels for the S&P 500, and more.
Persons: Cashin, Jackson Organizations: UBS
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNow until next Friday is a critical time for both the bond and stock markets, says UBS' Art CashinArthur Cashin, UBS Financial Services director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss concerns about supplies of Treasury bonds increasing, testing for cyclical changes in mid-August, and the boost in energy stocks moving the dollar higher.
Persons: Art Cashin Arthur Cashin Organizations: UBS, Art, UBS Financial
Art Cashin is warning investors to keep a close eye on key thresholds in the S & P 500 as markets approach a "critical time." Cashin pointed to the 4,440 to 4,535 range as a key level to watch as the index tests some major moving averages, with the index currently sitting in that area at around 4,456. The comments from Cashin come as 2023's market rally has shown some signs of cooling over the past two weeks as investors grapple with fresh inflation data and a recent U.S. credit rating downgrade from Fitch. While up 16% year to date, the broad-based index sits 3% lower for the month and is on track to cap off the week with a loss. "I've been doing this a long time and I will tell you whenever it looks like the book is over, there's one more chapter," Cashin said, adding that it may be too early for the bulls to "emerge victorious."
Persons: Cashin, there's, CNBC's, I've Organizations: UBS Financial Services Locations: Fitch
Here's how Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS recommend investing in AI. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and UBS are more optimistic about AI stocks after each expressed hesitations earlier this year as shares of companies tied to the technology exploded higher. In contrast, Morgan Stanley has dismissed concerns that AI stocks are in a bubble. "Inevitably, the market will compare AI to the dot-com boom," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim in a July report. As for chipmakers, Morgan Stanley agreed with Bank of America that the path forward is bifurcated.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Marcelli, Art Cashin, Michael Hartnett, Shawn Kim, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Vivek Arya, Wilson Organizations: Wall, Bank of America, UBS, Americas, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, Bank of, Accenture, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Consumer Locations: California, Snowflake, OpenAI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market bulls remain in control, says veteran trader Art CashinArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets and the CPI report.
Persons: Cashin Organizations: Email, UBS
The current market upswing is largely sentiment driven, Wall Street trading legend Art Cashin said. "Short of going absolutely parabolic, this has been some dramatic, pyrotechnic run on this rally." "I think, short of going absolutely parabolic, this has been some dramatic, pyrotechnic run on this rally." Asked if there's an "unknown unknown" that could undo the rally in the second half of the year, he said that's possible. "Sentiment is so great that a bump in the road could turn out to be a landmine," Cashin said, later adding, "so far the trend is going.
Persons: Art Cashin, , Cashin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Nasdaq, UBS, CNBC, Nvidia, Apple, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailArt Cashin: Can't state how strongly sentiment has taken over market actionArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his current feeling about the markets, what could spoil market performance in the year's second half, and more.
Persons: Cashin Organizations: UBS
Investors just sold off $2 billion in tech shares, the largest outflow in 10 weeks. Previously, the bank called AI a "baby bubble," comparing it to the 2000s dot-com craze. Previously, Hartnett compared the excitement for AI to the dot-com bubble, when internet stocks boomed before the Nasdaq Composite plunged 78% in the early 2000s. In a prior note, he called Wall Street's excitement for AI a "baby bubble," and suggested that AI stocks could soon "mature" as internet stocks did in 1999. Along with Hartnett, UBS's Art Cashin and veteran economist David Rosenberg have also drawn parallels with the current boom in AI stocks to the dot-com bubble.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Tesla, Hartnett, Cashin, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Service, Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Nasdaq, Labor
Experts including David Rosenberg and analysts from Wall Street banks including Bank of America have compared the AI stock boom to the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000. Here's a selection of the most recent expert views on this year's AI stock boom. But not everyone thinks the AI stock boom has run too far. Michael Hartnett, Bank of AmericaMichael Hartnett, BofA Global Research's CIO, said AI is in a "baby bubble" for now and noted that "AI = internet." Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professorThe retired Wharton finance professor doesn't see the AI hype as a bubble, either.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, Dan Ives, , Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Dan Raju, Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Michael Hartnett, BofA, James Penny, TAM Asset Management James Penny, I'd, Art Cashin, Cashin, Rosenberg, doesn't Organizations: Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, Service, Wall, UBS, TAM Asset Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, BofA Global, firm's, Bloomberg, Art, CNBC Locations: Wall
Here are 24 top stocks to buy for exposure to AI, according to Goldman Sachs. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been on everybody's minds lately, Goldman Sachs thinks investors may still be underselling how influential the technology can be. Goldman Sachs expects that AI will dramatically improve economic productivity and corporate earnings across the market. Stocks should be trading higher now based on how AI will impact businesses in the future, Goldman Sachs argued. Below are the 24 stocks in Goldman Sachs' AI basket, along with the ticker, market capitalization, and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for each.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ryan Hammond, Goldman, Hammond, Cashin, Goldman Sachs isn't Organizations: UBS, Microsoft, Intel
Here are 53 buy-rated stocks that will benefit from AI, and have at least 20% upside. Ironically, the UBS note was published just a day after one of the firm's own pundits, Art Cashin, compared the AI stock boom to the dot-com bubble. 53 buy-rated AI stocks to invest inIn the report, Briest and his colleagues put together a list of over 180 firms that will either be significantly helped or hurt by the continued growth of AI. Insider reviewed that list and highlighted the companies that will be positively impacted by AI, and have both a buy rating from UBS and at least 20% upside to the firm's price targets. Below are the 53 buy-rated companies that will be boosted by AI and have 20% upside or more from current levels, according to the price targets set by the UBS analyst that covers them.
Persons: Michael Briest, Cashin, it's, Briest Organizations: UBS, Accenture
So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.
Art Cashin said traders should closely watch how the next two weeks will play out, as they will be "absolutely critical." However, Cashin warned that ongoing macroeconomic concerns could cause stocks to break down as investors head into the busiest stretch of earnings season. It's as if everyone has gone into a bit of a trance," Cashin told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday. Investors should also closely watch data from tax season, as well as any ongoing delays in raising the debt ceiling. "I think the next two weeks could be absolutely critical to the market," Cashin said.
The stock market is about to enter one of the seasonally strongest months of the year, but volatility could persist in the week ahead with fading momentum and a big jobs report. The stock market is closed that day to observe Good Friday. Week ahead calendar Monday 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing, March Tuesday 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders, Feb. 10:00 a.m. JOLTS, Feb. Wednesday 7:00 a.m. Mortgage Applications 8:15 a.m. ADP, March 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance, Feb. 10:00 a.m. ISM Service, March Thursday Earnings: Constellation Brands 8:30 a.m. Initial claims Friday The stock market is closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls
The market may be nearing its Lehman moment yet again, Art Cashin told CNBC. The Wall Street vet said certain investors could use the banking crisis for their own financial gain. "We are on the edge of what we were doing back when Lehman got in trouble," Cashin told CNBC on Friday. In the span of a week, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were seized by regulators, while Silvergate announced it was winding down operations and liquidating positions. The Fed has forced many of these banks to reconfigure their portfolios," Cashin said, pointing to the US central bank's rate hikes.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA Friday like this is rumor mongers' delight, says UBS' Art CashinArthur Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday market movement, regulatory concerns in the banking sector, and agitating factors in the market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS' Cashin: Viewers should watch Powell's prepared statement carefullyArt Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what to watch in Tuesday's trading session, what Cashin made of the recent equity market test, and more.
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