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On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.

Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's

☆ Bank of England's next move divides economists as data paints a mixed picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, attends the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Press Conference, at the Bank of England, London, Britain, February 2, 2023. Pool | ReutersLONDON — Market expectations are split over the Bank of England's next monetary policy move on Wednesday, as policymakers near a tipping point in their fight against inflation. The other 38% of market participants expect a second consecutive 50 basis point hike, after the central bank surprised markets with a bumper increase in June. watch nowThe British economy has proven surprisingly resilient, despite a run of 13 consecutive rate hikes from the Bank of England. "While core inflation surprised to the downside in June, services inflation momentum remains strong.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Goldman Sachs, James Moberly, Ibrahim Quadri, Jari Stehn, BoE, Goldman, —, Abbas Khan, Mariano Cena, Silvia Ardagna, Matthew Swannell, Paul Hollingsworth, Andrew Bailey's Organizations: Bank of England, Press, Bank of, Monetary, British Retail Consortium, MPC, Fed, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England's, Barclays, BNP Paribas Locations: London, Britain, Sintra

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ ECB has not yet reached peak rates, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB has not yet reached peak rates, economist saysSilvia Ardagna, chief European economist at Barclays, says the ECB will not reach peak rates in its June meeting, but it will likely signal it is getting closer.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna Organizations: ECB, Barclays

☆ UK consumers slow spending in May as rising food costs bite
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The BRC said spending in its members' stores increased 3.9% in annual terms last month, well above the 1.1% fall a year ago. May's retail sales growth was the slowest since the 1.6% recorded in October 2022 when consumers cut back on purchases as inflation soared to a 41-year high of 11.1%. The BRC data is not adjusted for inflation, so May's sales growth reflects a fall in the volume of goods purchased. Food was almost the only area where consumers spent more last month, due to higher prices as well as celebrations to mark the coronation of King Charles. Separate figures from Barclays on Tuesday also showed high inflation and rising food prices continued to eat away at consumers' spending power.

Persons: BRC, King Charles ., Paul Martin, Silvia Ardagna, Suban Abdulla, David Milliken Organizations: British Retail Consortium, Food, KPMG, Bank of England, Barclays, Thomson

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

☆ UK's taxes are at a 70-year high. But its finance minister won't splash the cash at upcoming Budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has said Britain should have a "20-year plan" to become the world's next Silicon Valley. Public sector borrowing has also undershot by around £30 billion year-to-date, economists noted this week, in part reflecting higher-than-expected tax receipts. This will lend credence to Hunt's aims of bringing public sector net borrowing below 3% by 2027/28. LONDON — British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will deliver the government's Budget commitments on Wednesday against a better-than-expected economic backdrop, but economists expect him to stay cautious for now. The U.K. economy flatlined in the final quarter of the year to narrowly avoid entering a technical recession, though suffered a sharp slump in December.

☆ Inflation has peaked in the euro zone, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has peaked in the euro zone, Barclays saysSilvia Ardagna, head of European economics research at Barclays, discusses her predictions for the outcome of the ECB meeting and subsequent interest rate decisions over the next 12 months.

☆ Barclays economist on how the British government can get debt on a downward trajectory
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays economist on how the British government can get debt on a downward trajectorySilvia Ardagna, chief European economist at Barclays, discusses the U.K. government's latest fiscal statement and how the country can keep public debt on the downward trajectory.

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