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☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee falls past 82/USD despite dollar weakness; outflows likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined past the key psychological mark of 82 per dollar on Tuesday on likely corporate outflows and importer demand for the greenback, traders said. The rupee finished at 82.1250 to the dollar, having declined up to 82.15 during the session. They also cited importer demand through the session. So far, companies and bankers have had a bias towards rupee appreciation on improving macro economic fundamentals and carry trade appeal. "A sharp pick-up in services exports, increased smartphone exports and savings in the oil import bill... have likely altered India's CAD permanently."

☆ India's milk imports soar as disease hits local cattle stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Rajendra Jadhav | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Any upside risk coming from higher milk prices is going to pose an additional challenge," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at India's Kotak Mahindra Bank. "Cattle prices have doubled as there are fewer cows in the market," said Sharma, who has been raising cattle since childhood. "We will witness further rises in milk prices during summer," Shah said. India's SMP imports are likely to hit an all-time high in the fiscal year that started April, surpassing record purchases in 2011-12, dairy industry officials said. The temporary removal of those duties would mean imports rise even further, the NDDB official said.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee to strengthen after Fed hints rate hikes nearing end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.45-82.50 to the dollar compared to 82.6550 on Tuesday. Even though the Fed statement was perceived as slightly dovish compared to its stance earlier this month, it's unlikely the rupee will sustain its gains as we're expecting large dollar bids, said a state-run bank trader. Traders may be anticipating a dollar liquidity crunch in the domestic markets, and hence the rupee is expected to fall towards 82.65-levels, he added. Fed funds futures traders imply a nearly even chance of just one more 25 bps rate hike at the May meeting. "Much of the damage seems to have come from Treasury Secretary Yellen's parallel remarks... right when Jerome Powell was insisting that the banking sector was sound," ING analysts said in a note.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee declines as Fed's Powell stokes fears of large rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee weakened on Wednesday, as a hawkish tone by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stoked concerns about interest rates being hiked by 50 basis points (bps) again as soon as this month. Resuming trade after a one-day holiday, the rupee fell to 82.1275 per dollar by 10:34 a.m. IST compared with its previous close of 81.91. Powell, in a speech to lawmakers overnight, said recent stronger-than-expected economic data in the United States suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than previously anticipated. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes." These were Powell's first comments following the higher-than-expected U.S. January jobs and inflation data that had led markets to expect around three more 25-bps hikes.

The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.05-82.10 to the U.S. dollar compared with 81.91 in the previous session. These were Powell's first comments following the higher-than-expected U.S. January inflation data. He seemed to acknowledge that "disinflationary process" he spoke of repeatedly in a Feb. 1 news conference was not unfolding smoothly. Powell's comments pushed up the probability of a half a percentage point hike at the upcoming March meeting to 72%. 3** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $122.4 mln worth of Indian bonds on Mar.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee scales near 3-wk high as Chinese yuan boosts Asian FX
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 1 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee hit a near three-week high against the dollar on Wednesday after a stronger Chinese yuan sparked a rally in Asian currencies. The rupee rose 0.20% to 82.50 per dollar, having strengthened up to 82.37 at one point, near its 55-day moving average of 82.3514 and at its highest level since Feb. 10. There were a "decent" amount of inflows into the market, and the broader sentiment was better, while a pullback in the dollar index helped the rupee, said a dealer at a private bank. Hence, the local unit is likely to stay in the range of 82.60-83.00 in the near term, Krishnamurthy said, noting that technically, only a break of either side on a daily close basis would trigger a directional move. Asian currencies and equities rose in response, while the dollar index fell 0.5%.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee down on Fed policy bets, falls less than peers on likely RBI help
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rupee finished at 82.8350 per dollar, against its previous close of 82.75. The currency weakened up to 82.9475 during the session, its lowest level since Oct. 20, 2022 when the rupee hit a record low. Further declines on Monday were capped by a likely Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention via state-run banks, traders said. The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for monetary policy. "Heading into the week, the rupee could come under pressure if the dollar index continues to gain," wrote HDFC Bank economists in a note.

MUMBAI, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields are expected to trend higher this week, as sentiment stays bearish, but debt as well as the local currency will track U.S. and India inflation data. India's headline retail inflation print is due on Monday, followed by U.S. retail inflation on Tuesday. Bond yields jumped after the RBI highlighted core inflation concerns, keeping the door open for another hike. The rupee will take its cues from the U.S. inflation print and its impact on the dollar index, a trader with a private bank said. For the week, the currency could move between 82.10 and 82.80 unless the U.S. inflation data is a big surprise, dealers said.

MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.

MUMBAI, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was headed lower against the dollar on Monday after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report prompted investors to bet on more Federal Reserve rate increases. The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggested that the rupee would open at 82.35-82.40 to the dollar compared with 81.8275 in the previous session. "We continue to expect two more 25 basis points fed funds rate hikes in March and May, and we continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." Goldman Sachs's call for no rate cuts this year compares to CME futures indicating shallow rate cuts later this year. "Oil prices are a big positive for the rupee, but we doubt that will have a large impact," the trader said.

MUMBAI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to extend its gains this week, while government bond yields may move marginally higher due to worries about yet another year of elevated borrowing. The local unit is likely to add to its momentum and trade in a broad 80.50-81.50 range this week, analysts said. Despite the corporate flows in the market, steady foreign investment into equities is more important, so it seems appropriate for the rupee to trade around those levels, Biswas added. Market participants expect the benchmark bond yield to trade in the 7.30%-7.40% band this week. The Reserve Bank of India will auction 40 billion rupees each of five- and 10-year green bonds on Wednesday.

☆ India's foreign exchange reserves rise to 5-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Jan 20 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) rose to $572 billion in the week through Jan. 13, their highest level since early August last year, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. That is higher than the country's reserves of $561.58 billion for the week ended Jan. 6, and the more-than-two-year low of $524.52 billion hit in October 2022. The central bank has, in the past, said that changes in reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. The rupee marked its best trading week in two months in the week ended Jan. 13 as it appreciated sharply on breaking out of a tight range. It continued to gain, albeit at a slower pace, in the current week ending Jan. 20.

Government bond yields are expected to tick up as investors shift focus to the upcoming budget. The rupee climbed 1.7% to 81.3250 per dollar last week, tracking a broad decline in the dollar index . There are a lot of positives for the rupee, including the Fed view, the broadly stable oil prices and the fall in Treasury yields, said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Till then, bond yields should not fall much, as most people are expecting a heavy borrowing calendar," said Ajay Manglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial. Meanwhile, as a bulk of the fresh supply for the next financial year would hit the longer end, market participants expect yields to rise, while shorter-tenor yields may see some fall.

MUMBAI, Jan 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee may open slightly higher against the dollar on Wednesday, building on the previous day's momentum when it managed to move above important resistance levels, traders said. The rupee is tipped to open at around 81.66-81.70 compared with 81.7850 in the previous session. Yesterday, the rupee managed to scale multiple resistance levels that were there between 81.80 to 82.20, surprising most market participants, a spot trader at a foreign bank said. The rupee will simply be carrying yesterday's momentum at open, he added. Anil Bhansali, head treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, reckoned that after Tuesday's move, the new support levels for USD/INR are at 81.70 and 81.40.

☆ Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended 2022 as the worst-performing Asian currency with a fall of 11.3%, its biggest annual decline since 2013, as the dollar rocketed on the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation. Most traders and analysts expect the currency to move between a tight 81.50-83.50 range in the first quarter. Equity inflows would be a key metric to watch for the rupee for foreign investors as well, analysts said. But considering several uncertainties heading into 2023, such as tight monetary policy conditions, likely recession in some economies and an ongoing geopolitical conflict, gauging the direction of share markets had become tough, they added. If we get a selloff in Indian shares, I'll be less optimistic on the rupee," said Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC Bank.

☆ India's forex reserves slip for second week
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell to $562.81 billion in the week through Dec. 23, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. For the week ended Dec. 16, the country's reserves were at $563.50 billion. The rupee has been calmer over the past couple of weeks, trading on the weaker side of 82.50 in a narrow range for the week ended Dec. 23. Traders have said state-run banks were likely offering dollars on behalf of the RBI to keep the rupee from breaching 83 per dollar. For the current week, rupee traded in an even tighter range in thin volumes and ended at 82.72 on Friday.

☆ Indian rupee's worst behind it; inflows crucial in 2023 - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to hold in a tight range in the early part of 2023 but the worst is possibly behind it, said traders and analysts. Plus, an easing of commodity prices could help our trade deficit," he added. And while global commodity prices and the U.S. dollar retreated in the last quarter of 2022, the rupee failed to capitalise on it. The rupee is set to end the year down nearly 11% against the greenback, its worst annual performance since 2013. How the flows play out will be crucial to the rupee's fortunes in 2023.

The rupee finished last week 1.2% lower at 82.27 per dollar, tumbling swiftly from trading in the 81-handle initially. Considering that, the rupee is still expected to be "stuck" in a range, they added. Meanwhile, India's benchmark government bond yield ended last week at 7.2982%, with the 8 bps gain its biggest weekly rise since late-September. Yields are expected to move in a narrow range of 7.26%-7.36%, with high chances of the upper end being tested, said a fixed income trader. After the Fed meeting, traders will also watch out for the central bank's dot plot to see where terminal rates could go.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee likely to slip as U.S. data stokes higher rates worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to weaken at the open on Monday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher as U.S. data late last week affirmed the need for higher interest rates. "Equity outflows are a visible headwind (to the rupee), likely given optimism on China," Barclays wrote in a note. The dollar index was back above the 105-level, while the benchmark Treasury yields were at 3.5820%, having jumped 9 basis points on Friday. Data, on that day, showed U.S. monthly producer prices rose 0.3% in November, higher than expected, with October figures revised upwards, suggesting interest rates would remain higher for longer. In India, November CPI data is due after market hours, which likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40%, a Reuters poll showed.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee eyes stronger opening on subdued dollar, oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to open slightly stronger against the U.S. currency on Thursday, amid weaker oil prices and as the dollar dropped overnight on growth concerns in the world's top economy. The partially convertible rupee was seen around 82.30-82.35 per dollar in the opening trades, compared to its previous close of 82.47. Monitoring debt and equity inflows will be key, but the rupee could head towards 82.50-levels, the trader added. Several executives at top U.S. banks this week have warned about this possibility. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India hiked the key repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25% on Wednesday but sounded more hawkish than market expectations about fighting inflation.

☆ India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."

☆ Foreign equity funds pile into Indian financials as credit cycle picks up
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MUMBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Foreign investors are buying into Indian financial firms, lured by the prospects of a fresh credit cycle that may boost the stocks of the country's largest lenders. The optimism is reflected in inflows, with foreign investors buying a net of $1.74 billion worth of Indian financial stocks in November, data released by the National Securities Depository Ltd this week showed. Reuters Graphics"PALATABLE" VALUATIONIndian financial stocks are trading at a premium to their historical average, but that is not necessarily the comparison investors are looking at. This has prompted local and foreign investors to pour money into the domestic equity markets, which hit all-time highs last week. The optimism comes despite financial stocks trading at a premium to their two-year historical average on a price-to-book valuation basis.

The rupee ended unchanged at 81.6850 per U.S. dollar last week. "Markets are sensing a softening of approach from the U.S. Federal Reserve and that's giving legs to risk assets. The benchmark 10-year bond yield finished flat at 7.3012% last week. It is expected to stay within a 7.25%-7.33% band this week, with a break below 7.25% considered highly unlikely, the trader said. Many Asian countries are scheduled to release manufacturing data, with China's factory activity data due Wednesday.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee drops as COVID woes keep Chinese yuan pinned
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined against a steady U.S. dollar on Monday, tracking the Chinese yuan's plunge on stringent COVID curbs in the country. The rupee eased to 81.8850 per dollar by 0441 GMT, as against its previous close of 81.6850. The onshore yuan slipped 0.6%, prompting a 0.2% to 1% decline in Asian currencies, while the rupee held up relatively better than its peers. Regional stocks were also lower as Chinese equities (.SSEC) and Hong Kong shares (.HSI) dropped 0.8% and 2%, respectively. The dollar and U.S. yields have stabilised over the past week as Fed officials made hawkish remarks.

☆ India's forex reserves rise at fastest pace since August 2021
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, Nov 18 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) rose to $544.72 billion in the week through Nov. 11, marking their biggest weekly jump in more than a year, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly statistical supplement showed on Friday. The country's reserves were at $529.99 billion by Nov. 4. In the week ended Nov. 11, softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data helped the rupee mark its best weekly performance in about four years and strengthened it to the 80-per-dollar handle for the first time since mid-September. For the current week, the local currency gave back some of those gains to end down 1.1% at 81.6850 per dollar. Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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