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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCentrist parties won't allow Jean-Luc Melenchon to become France's PM, analyst saysAntonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo, says centrist parties will not allow a divisive, far-left figure like France Unbowed's Jean-Luc Melenchon to lead a future government.
Persons: Jean, Luc Melenchon, Antonio Barroso, France Unbowed's Jean Locations: France
Francois Lo Presti | Afp | Getty ImagesFrench voters are heading to the polls on Sunday for the second and final round of voting in a snap parliamentary election. By offering voters a starker choice and fewer candidates, RN's opponents hope that the electorate will opt for the non-RN candidate. "For instance, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has said voters should vote neither for the RN nor candidates from the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. At the same time, current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has called for everyone to vote against the RN." If the choice was between a far-left and far-right candidate, however, the picture was more nuanced, showing a split vote.
Persons: Francois Lo Presti, Emmanuel Macron's, Jordan Bardella, Antonio Barroso, Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Ifop, Teneo's Barroso, Harris, Emmanuel Macron, Xi Jinping, Mohammed Badra, Macron, Teneo, Julien De Rosa Organizations: French, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Front, NFP, Le, Palais des Sports, Nurphoto, Research, Harris Interactive, Reuters, Republicans, Macron's, Chinese Business Council, National Locations: Henin, Beaumont, France, Paris, Franco, Marigny, Garches
The first round of a snap parliamentary election in France points to a surge in votes for the anti-immigrant National Rally party, with President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance coming into third place. Early polling data from national broadcaster France 2 indicates that National Rally (RN) won 34% of the vote while the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance got 28.1%. If no candidate meets that standard, a second round of voting is held, listing the top two candidates and any other candidates who secured more than 12.5% of registered voters' support. The second round of voting on July 7 is the one to watch, according to Antonio Barroso, deputy director of Research at Teneo. As such, National Rally is widely expected to significantly increase the number of seats it has in France's 577-seat parliament, the National Assembly, from the current level of 89.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, Antonio Barroso Organizations: Nexus Institute, National Rally, France, New Popular Front, Research, NFP, National Assembly Locations: The Hague, Netherlands, France, Teneo
Read previewFrench President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world on Sunday by calling a snap election in France. The move came after a big win for his rival Marine Le Pen's National Rally party at the European parliamentary elections. AdvertisementHowever, the snap election could likely end the current coalition, which comprises Macron's party, Renaissance, the Democratic Movement, Horizons, En commun, and the Progressive Federation. Macron may have to form a cohabitation government with a prime minister from an opposition party, such as the National Party or Les Republicains. AdvertisementRepresentatives for President Macron did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Persons: , Emmanuel Macron, There's, Daniel Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, France's, Macron, I've, Pen, Alain Duhamel, Bruno Cautrès, Antonio Barroso Organizations: Service, Business, Foreign, Institute, Johns Hopkins University, CNBC, Guardian, Cac, Financial Times, Democratic Movement, Progressive Federation, National Party, Sciences Po Locations: France, Paris
Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFrench President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap national election after a surge for his far-right rivals is a high-stakes move and a huge political gamble, analysts say. Macron's decision to call a snap parliamentary vote comes after the right-wing National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, won around 31% of the vote in Sunday's European Parliament election. That was more than double the 14.6% seen for Macron's pro-European and centrist Renaissance Party and its allies. France's CAC 40 slumped 1.8% in the early hours of trading Monday morning with French banks trading sharply lower. "This is an essential time for clarification," Macron said in a national address Sunday evening as he announced his decision to dissolve parliament.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, Macron, Le Pen, Macron —, , Daniel Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, Antonio Barroso, Teneo, Barroso, Le, Douglas Yates, Yates Organizations: Getty, Getty Images, Marine, Sunday's, Renaissance Party, CAC, BNP, Societe Generale, Foreign, Institute, Johns Hopkins University, CNBC, Research, National Assembly, American Graduate School Locations: Chesnot, France, Paris
Andre Azevedo Alves, political science professor at Lisbon's Catolica University and St Mary's University in London, said the corruption investigation was a "very strong blow" to any PS ambitions. Analysts agree the PSD is likely to come out on top, but doubt its ability to build enough support to form a stable government. "Assuming the likelihood that the PSD will not have (enough) votes to form a government without Chega... we may go from one political crisis to another," Alves said. Waiting for a bus in central Lisbon, Ana Bernardino, 23, vented her concerns about the political outlook. "It is a political crisis and in my opinion it's a bit frustrating that elections are being held again...I'm a bit afraid."
Persons: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Antonio Costa, illegalities, Costa, Costa's, Intercampus, Andre Azevedo Alves, Andre Ventura, Luis Montenegro, Alves, Antonio Barroso, Ana Bernardino, Maria Ines Ferreira, Catarina Demony, Miguel Pereira, Patricia Rua, Andrei Khalip, Nick Macfie, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Socialist Party, Social Democrats, Lisbon's Catolica University, St Mary's University, PSD, Chega, Liberal Initiative, CDS, Thomson Locations: Belem, LISBON, Portugal, London, Lisbon, Europe
Timing is everything," said political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto. By law, an election needs to be held within 60 days of the publishing of the presidential decree dissolving parliament. The PSD is still reeling from defeat in a January 2022 election that caused a leadership change. The 74-year-old former law lecturer and political commentator has used his constitutional power to disband parliament once before, in November 2021. Unlike now, Costa's government then had no parliamentary majority and had just had its budget rejected.
Persons: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Antonio Costa, illegalities, Costa, Antonio Costa Pinto, Ines de Sousa Real, Rebelo de Sousa, Antonio Barroso, Luis Montenegro, Pedro Nuno Santos, Andre Ventura, Patricia Rua, Aislinn Laing, Nick Macfie Organizations: Socialist, Socialist Party, Nature, Social Democratic Party, TAP, Thomson Locations: LISBON, Portuguese, Montenegro
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTeneo: Voter turnout in question as Spanish snap election in the middle of holiday seasonAntonio Barroso, deputy director of research at Teneo, discusses the implications of the latest development in Spanish politics.
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