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☆ Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in historic miss
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Liam Reilly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Top pollster J. Ann Selzer will retire from the Des Moines Register’s famed Iowa Poll and the survey will “evolve” after it failed to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s strong support in the 2024 election, resulting in a 16-point miss. Trump ultimately swept to victory over Harris in the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%. Prior to the 2024 survey, the Iowa Poll under her stewardship had been considered by many to be the methodological gold standard. As of June 2024, election forecaster Nate Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating. In an op-ed for the Register, Selzer said that her decision to part ways with the poll predated the erroneous results.

Persons: Ann Selzer, Donald Trump’s, Selzer, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, ’, ” Kristin Roberts, ”, ” Roberts, “, John Kerry, Republican George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Nate Silver, ” Selzer, I’m, Carol Hunter, ” Hunter, Iowans Organizations: New, New York CNN, Des Moines Register’s, Iowa, Trump, Republican, Gannett Media, Des Moines Register, CNN, ”, Iowa Poll, Selzer Locations: New York, Des, Iowa, West Des Moines

☆ How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.

Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, “, aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, ”, “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, “, Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom

According to the same polls, boomer men supported Trump over Harris 57% to 39% while boomer women chose Harris 52% to 43%. On Monday, Trump, at a battleground on the eve of Election Day, invited Lara Trump and his daughter Tiffany to the stage. The Trump campaign has been pointing to partisan turnout numbers as evidence that he is building an advantage with early voting. Since 1980, nearly every presidential election has seen a split, which in recent decades has shown Democrats winning with women voters. This was the case in 2016, when Hillary Clinton led women by double digits, and in 2020, when President Joe Biden won women voters as well.

Persons: Kamala Harris girding, Liz Cheney, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Ann Selzer, “ Harris, ”, Partners Scarlett Maguire, “, Joe Rogan, Lex Fridman, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, you’re, Lara Trump, Danica Patrick, Kristi Noem, Morgan Ortagus, Tiffany, Megyn Kelly, Kelly, Nikki Haley, ” Trump, Haley haven't, Cheney, — Trump, Tom Bonier, Covid, Wade, don’t, Lala Johnson, Ned McCarthy, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris ’ Organizations: Democratic, Republican, J, Des Moines Register, Democrat, J.L, Boys, MIT, NBC, Trump, Harris, NBC News, Republican National Committee, NASCAR, South Dakota Gov, Pittsburgh, Republicans —, Arizona voters Locations: Trump, Iowa, Harris, Arizona, Roe

☆ Why these are the five (or six) states to watch on election night
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The only thing that matters is getting to 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College. Meanwhile, 219 electoral votes seem to be leaning in the former president’s direction. Closing off the ‘blue wall’Looking at those battleground states, Harris has the easier path than Trump to getting to 270 electoral votes. She could win by corralling Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). But the bottom line is this election is most likely going to come down to five states … or maybe six.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Harris, there’s, Ann Selzer’s, corralling Michigan, Jacquelyn Martin, Clinton, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump’s, Chip Somodevilla Organizations: CNN, Electoral, Congressional District, Trump, Ann Selzer’s Des Moines Register, corralling, Southern Sun, State, North, Georgia, Democratic, North Carolina, Silver State Locations: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Washington, Ann Selzer’s Des, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Madison , Wisconsin, North Carolina, Trump, Southern, Greensboro , North Carolina, Nevada, , Arizona, Arizona . Arizona, Silver

☆ Meet the Press – November 3, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +55 min

KRISTEN WELKER:As the 2024 election nears the finish line, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make their last appeal to voters. Vice President Harris and former President Trump and their surrogates are making their closing arguments. North Carolina was the state former president Trump won in 2020 by the smallest margin and both candidates held events there on Saturday. I asked, what is his message to women who are thinking about voting for Vice President Harris. Today, Vice President Harris is in Michigan working to shore up the blue wall, her simplest path to winning the White House.

Persons: KRISTEN WELKER, PRES, KAMALA HARRIS, FMR . PRES, DONALD TRUMP, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Steve Kornacki, Liz Cheney, Let's, TONY HINCHCLIFFE, Raphael Warnock of, Doug Burgum, Chuck Todd, Cristina Londoño Rooney, Marc Short, Mike Pence, Jen Psaki, Kristen Welker, . PRES, Harris, Trump, Biden, haven't, Will Nikki Haley, hasn’t, Kamala, TIM WALZ, Donald Trump's, SEN, JD VANCE, FMR, MICHELLE OBAMA, She's, Hurricane Helene, NBC's Dasha Burns, DASHA BURNS, Kristen, Ann Selzer, “, we've, Dasha, We're, Alcindor, YAMICHE, STEVE KORNACKI, Harris ., They've, she's, Joe Biden's, Steve, they've, We've, –, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Warnock, Press . SEN, RAPHAEL WARNOCK, It's, Martin Luther King Jr, Barack Obama, I've, I’ve, we're, They're, Governor Burgum, DOUG BURGUM, Nikki Haley, NIKKI HALEY, they're, Trump's, I'm, he's, Emerson, Iowa that's, I'd, Trump hasn't, It’s, Biden's, There's, Burgum, JEN PSAKI, Chuck, hasn't, CHUCK TODD, who's, – KRISTEN WELKER, she’s, Harris isn't, Jen, that's, Cristina, let's, CRISTINA LONDOÑO ROONEY, They’re, Obama, there's, o’clock, Clinton, JD Vance, RUDOLPH, MAYA RUDOLPH, we'd, Hillary Clinton, Marc, We'll, it's Organizations: FMR, NBC, Puerto Rico, Trump, Democratic, Republican, Washington, Telemundo, Staff, White House Press, Press, Rockefeller, Des Moines Register, NBC News, DONALD TRUMP : Georgia, GOV, TIM, FIRST, United States Capitol, Des Moines, White, Muslim, National, Black, Press ., Ebenezer Baptist Church, New York Times, Central, American, UN, Penn State football, Madison, –, Iowa, Republicans, oversampled, Puerto Ricans, Obama, it's, Democratic Party Locations: America, FMR ., United States, Puerto Rico, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, North Dakota, New York, ., Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, ELON, Hurricane, Greensboro, Iowa, Michigan, Detroit, East Lansing, Dearborn , Michigan, Gaza, Arizona, Des, Washington, Ebenezer, Georgia, Trump's, Puerto Rican, Madison, Korea, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, American, Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, Kansas, Puerto, Puerto Ricans, Trump, , Wisconsin, it's New Hampshire, New Hampshire

☆ Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Lloyd Lee | John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state. Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some key swing states. AdvertisementThe Iowa Poll has scrambled the conventional wisdom that former President Donald Trump will easily win the state. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions. In the Selzer poll taken in September, Reynolds' job approval rating sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance.

Persons: Harris, Trump, bode, —, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, they're, John Conway, Christian Grose, J, Ann Selzer —, Selzer, FiveThirtyEight, Patricia Crouse, it's, Joe Biden, Chip Somodevilla, Crouse, Al Gore, George W, Bush, Barack Obama's, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joni Ernst, Kim Reynolds, Reynolds, Iowans Organizations: Des Moines Register, Trump, Service, Republicans Voters Against Trump, University of Southern, Harris, Selzer, University of New, Hawkeye State, Getty, Democratic, Texas Gov, GOP, Republicans, Republican Gov Locations: Iowa, It's, Pennsylvania, Michigan , Wisconsin, University of Southern California, Wisconsin , Michigan, Kansas, University of New Haven

☆ Shock poll shows Harris leading Trump in Iowa
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-02 | by ( Dan Mangan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a "When We Vote We Win" campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa by 47% to 44% among likely voters, according to a shocking new poll released Saturday night, just three days before Election Day. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll's results came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst has predicted that the Democratic nominee will defeat Trump in the state. "It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co told the Des Moines Register. Harris' lead in the poll was powered by strong support from female voters, particularly older and politically independent ones.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, J, Ann Selzer, pollsters Organizations: Democratic, U.S, Craig, Des Moines Register, Trump, Selzer Locations: North Las Vegas , Nevada, Iowa

☆ A top poll showing Trump narrowly ahead in Iowa is a warning sign for his campaign
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( John L. Dorman | Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Iowa shifted from being a swing state to one where Republicans are firmly in the driver's seat. In Iowa, the gender gap is as pronounced as it is in many swing states. AdvertisementIn the latest Iowa poll, state voters gave Harris an 11-point point edge over Trump (53% to 42%) on the issue of abortion. AdvertisementStill, the poll shows why the intense focus on the seven swing states can sometimes be detrimental. The Iowa poll found that six percent of voters still back Kennedy, a decrease from June but still a number that could cause headaches.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Trump, Barack Obama —, Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, Roe, Wade, It's, That's, Win McNamee, J, Ann Selzer, Nate Silver's, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Mary Peltola, Lyndon B, Johnson, he's, Hillary Clinton Organizations: Service, Republicans, GOP, Business, Iowa, Trump, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Biden . Iowa Democrats, Biden, Des, Register, Republican, Iowa Republicans, White Locations: Iowa, Midwest, . Iowa, Illinois, Des, —, Hawkeye, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Alaska, Alaska's, Trump, Michigan , Wisconsin

☆ Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever. A Haley win in the first primary race in the nation would indicate that Trump is not invincible. He did more than 5 points better than where his final Iowa poll had him. (His 28-point margin over Bradley was the same as the final poll found, as both Bradley and Gore won some undecided voters.)

Persons: Donald Trump, Ann Selzer, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, –, They’re, Haley, Chris Christie –, George W, Bush, didn’t, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Patrick Buchanan, Bob Dole, Buchanan, McCain, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart, Haley isn’t, DeSantis, Al Gore, Gore, Bill Bradley, Bradley, Trump . Gore, Dole Organizations: CNN, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Iowa GOP, Granite State, New, New Jersey Gov, University of New, Dole, Democratic, Republican, Trump . Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, University of New Hampshire, Hampshire, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina, Florida

☆ Trump Is Still Far Ahead in Iowa Poll, With Haley Matching DeSantis for 2nd
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Maggie Astor | More About Maggie Astor | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Former President Donald J. Trump still has a huge lead in Iowa, according to a poll released Monday, but Nikki Haley has surged to tie Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for a distant second place. Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former United Nations ambassador, are tied at 16 percent. That is a decline of three percentage points for Mr. DeSantis and an increase of 10 points for Ms. Haley, driven in part by increasing support for Ms. Haley among independent voters. The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Iowa’s, DeSantis, Haley, Ann Selzer Organizations: Gov, Des Moines Register, NBC, Mr, United Nations, J Locations: Iowa, Florida, South Carolina

☆ Trump edges up in Iowa even as legal challenges grow, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Former U.S. President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a campaign rally in Sioux City, Iowa, U.S. October 29, 2023. Trump is showing strength in Iowa despite considerable legal challenges. The former Republican president faces four criminal and three civil trials, some related to his attempts to overturn his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden. "He’s still the dominant player in the field, and his standing has in fact improved from August," said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll. The poll was conducted before Trump's former vice president, Mike Pence, dropped out of the race over the weekend.

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Morgan, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Biden, He’s, Ann Selzer, Haley, DeSantis, Mike Pence, Susan Heavey, James Oliphant, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, Republican, REUTERS, Rights, Former U.S, NBC, Des Moines Register, United Nations, Trump, Democrat, Republicans, Thomson Locations: Sioux City , Iowa, U.S, Former, Iowa, Florida, Midwestern

Nikki Haley is surging in support among Iowa Republicans and is now tied for second place in the battle for the GOP nomination in the Hawkeye State, according to a poll released Monday morning. Haley has the first-choice backing of 16% of Iowa Republicans – the same as Florida Gov. The poll was conducted before Trump's vice president, Mike Pence, dropped out of the race on Saturday, saying "this is not my time." Even before the realignment, Pence was struggling, having dropped from 6% support in August to 2% in the current poll. The Iowa poll reflects a new political reality for the 2024 elections, with the nominations for both major political parties appearing to be sewn up with two and a half months to go before the first nominating contest.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Donald Trump, Trump, –, pollster J, Ann Selzer, Haley, Iowa Republicans –, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley, Mike Pence, Pence, Joe Biden, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Dean Phillips, Phillips, James Garfield, Jan Organizations: South Carolina Gov, Iowa Republicans, GOP, Republican, Des Moines Register, NBC, Florida Gov, Suffolk University, Boston Globe, USA, New Hampshire Republican, Tech, New, New Jersey Gov, North Dakota Gov, Arkansas Gov, Pence, Trump, Democratic Locations: Hawkeye, Florida, New Hampshire, DeSantis, New, New Jersey, Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota

☆ Trump has commanding lead in Iowa ahead of 2024 Republican caucus - poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom survey of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers shows Trump has the backing of 42%, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 19% and U.S. Among Trump supporters, however, 66% said their vote was set, while 34% said they could be persuaded to change their minds. The poll found 65% of likely Republican caucusgoers didn't think Trump had committed serious crimes, compared with the 26% who believed he had. The survey came ahead of Wednesday's first Republican primary debate, which Trump has said he will skip, citing his large lead in polls. A national CBS poll on Sunday showed Trump was the preferred candidate for 62% of Republican voters, with DeSantis trailing behind at 16%.

Persons: Donald Trump, Iowa Republican caucusgoers, Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Joe Biden, Ann Selzer, Iowa pollster, caucusgoers didn't, Biden, David Ljunggren, Colleen Jenkins, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Former U.S, Republican, Des Moines Register, NBC, Iowa Republican, Florida Governor, U.S, Democratic, Iowa, Trump, CBS, Sunday, DeSantis, Thomson Locations: Former, Iowa, Georgia, Wednesday's

☆ Trump holds big lead in new Iowa poll, but DeSantis and Scott see paths to victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Kevin Breuninger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Charlie Neibergall, Meg Kinnard | APFormer President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a major new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa released Monday. Trump garnered the support of 42% of respondents, while DeSantis came in second with 19%. In an overture to Iowa voters, Trump also asserted without evidence that he "saved" ethanol and popular entitlement programs. While Trump and DeSantis share a similar overall approval in the state — 63% for Trump and 61% for DeSantis — the Florida governor's support appears to be much shakier than the former president's.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen, Tim Scott, Charlie Neibergall, Meg Kinnard, caucusgoers, DeSantis, George W, Bush, Trump, Scott, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, Haley —, J, Ann Selzer, GOP caucusgoers Organizations: Florida Gov, South, Trump, South Carolina Gov, New, New Jersey Gov, Des Moines Register, NBC, DeSantis, Iowa, GOP Locations: Florida, South Carolina, Iowa, DeSantis, New Jersey, China, U.S

☆ Iowa Republican caucus-goers love Trump more than ever, even after he attacked their governor: poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers. A new Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll found that Trump is viewed favorably by 65% of likely GOP caucus-goers and unfavorably by 33%. A whopping 81% of likely caucus-goers view her favorably, including 50% who view her very favorably. A majority (52%) of likely caucus-goers said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. The Iowa Poll was conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023 by telephone.

Persons: Donald Trump, it's, Kim Reynolds, Trump, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Ann Selzer's Selzer, Reynolds, Ron DeSantis, Sen, Tim Scott of, Trump's, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Iowans Organizations: Iowa Republicans, Trump, Service, Iowa Republican, Gov, Des Moines Register, Texas, NBC, GOP, J, Republicans, Florida Gov Locations: Iowa, Wall, Silicon, Tim Scott of South Carolina

NBC News will partner with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom for "The Iowa Poll" in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential caucuses in the state. The partners will work with Selzer & Company pollster J. Ann Selzer to develop questions. “The 2024 presidential election is well under way and it’s critical to capture the thinking of the electorate at every stage of the cycle,” NBC News’ Senior Vice President of Politics, Carrie Budoff Brown, said. “The Iowa Poll has a storied history of setting the stage for the presidential election cycle,” Carol Hunter, executive editor of the Des Moines Register, added. “We are excited to join forces with NBC News and our longtime partners Selzer & Company and Mediacom to bring Iowans and the nation impactful information about the thinking of likely participants ahead of the 2024 Iowa caucuses.”

Persons: pollster J, Ann Selzer, Carrie Budoff Brown, “, ” Carol Hunter, ” Organizations: NBC, Des Moines Register, Selzer, ’, Republican, NBC News, Company Locations: Iowa

DeSantis is scheduled to visit Iowa on Friday, his third trip to the state since declaring his presidential bid. His wife, Casey DeSantis, last week traveled to Iowa to launch a national "Mamas for DeSantis" campaign focused on parental rights, hoping to win over the swing vote of suburban Republican women. DeSantis' supporters are also emphasizing what they see as the similarities between DeSantis and Kim Reynolds, Iowa's popular Republican governor, said one person close to the campaign. "The campaign has the most sophisticated and experienced team ever in Iowa, and is poised to crush DeSantis," Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said. A dearth of reliable polling in Iowa makes it difficult to assess the real strength of both DeSantis and Trump in the state.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Trump, Chris Stirewalt, Stirewalt, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Steve Cortes, Donald Trump, They've, Ryan Frederick, Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Casey DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Iowa's, Reynolds, Steven Cheung, Ann Selzer, Selzer, James Oliphant, Gram Slattery, Alexandra Ulmer, Ross Colvin, Alistair Bell Organizations: Republican, Trump, American Enterprise Institute, Arkansas, Fox Business, Republican Party, Iowa, Thomson Locations: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, U.S, Trump, Adair County

Here are five races where long-shot contenders could shock the nation on Nov. 8; we've also included how the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections and campaigns, rates the odds. Or skip that race on the ballot?”Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Democratic”North CarolinaRepublicans are favored to win North Carolina, but only slightly. Cook Political Report rating: “Lean Republican”IowaAt 89 years old, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is running for another six-year term. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Republican”WashingtonSen. Patty Murray, the third-ranked Democrat and chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, is the GOP’s white whale this cycle. Cook Political Report rating: “Likely Democratic”

☆ Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Quoctrung Bui | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +18 min

But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. Just because you put the right ingredients in a bowl, doesn’t mean you’re going to end up with a cake. I think a lot of that has been swept under the rug because the move to online polling seems so inexorable. Pollsters don’t know what people are seeing, hearing and reading. I know at FiveThirtyEight you can search by A-rated or B-rated, but I don’t know how they’re coming up with these ratings.

☆ Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, who's seeking his eighth term in office, has a slim lead over Democratic challenger Mike Franken, poll says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Veteran GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley has a slim three-point lead over Democratic challenger Mike Franken. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Grassley leading Franken 46%-43% among likely voters. Grassley usually wins reelection handily, but Franken might give him his toughest race in decades. Franken, a retired United States Navy vice admiral, unsuccessfully sought the Democratic Senate nomination in 2020 but was defeated by businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. This year, Franken won the Democratic nomination over former Rep. Abby Finkenauer in a party primary.

A total of 42% of Republicans in the U.S. identify as “MAGA” Republicans, while 58% disavow the term, according to a new national poll by J. Ann Selzer and Grinnell College. Overall, 17% of respondents said they identify as MAGA Republican when told the phrase and asked if it describes them, the poll found. The survey offered a deep dive into the demographics of the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who embrace the “MAGA” label. They are disproportionately male (59%), 55 and older (55%), white (77%), lacking a college degree (76%), and make more than $50,000 a year (60%). Substantial majorities identify as conservative (81%), strong Republicans (65%) and Protestant (61%).

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