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☆ Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek

☆ Port strike could reignite inflation, with larger economic impact dependent on how long it lasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Port of Miami dockworkers strike near the port entrance and demand a new labor contract, on October 1, 2024 in Miami, Florida. One rule of thumb is that for each strike day, it takes nearly a week to get ports operating at normal levels. watch now"We think fears around the potential economic impacts are overdone," wrote Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics. "Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories. "There is little chance that the administration would risk jeopardizing its recent economic successes less than two months before a tightly-contested election," he said.

Persons: Giorgio Viera, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hollenhorst, Bradley Saunders, Saunders, there's Organizations: Afp, Getty, International Longshoreman's Association, U.S . Maritime Alliance, Labor, RSM, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Citigroup, New, New York Fed, Capital Economics, ILA Locations: Miami, Miami , Florida, East, Gulf, U.S, United States, West Coast, New York, North America

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ Here's what to expect from Friday's big jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will be looking to May's nonfarm payrolls report for more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve can ease up in its battle against inflation. "The jobs report for May is now particularly consequential," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. "A weaker reading [of less than 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4% or more] would be a final piece of evidence that the slowdown will continue. Citi expects that the report will show just 140,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate hitting 4% for the first time since January 2022. Markets currently are pegging the first rate cut to come in September, with one more on the way in December.

Persons: nonfarm, Dow Jones, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S, payrolls

☆ The US economy is headed for a hard landing this year, and deep rate cuts are the only solution, Citi chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US economy is headed for an economic hard landing driven by a deteriorating labor market, Citigroup's chief US economist told CNBC. That tends to snowball," Andrew Hollenhorst said about the job market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA deteriorating labor market will be what causes the US economy to quickly turn sour, according to Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup's chief US economist. That tends to snowball and end up in something that looks more like a hard landing."

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Business

☆ Citigroups' Andrew Hollenhorst: Expect a hard landing for U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCitigroups' Andrew Hollenhorst: Expect a hard landing for U.S.Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup US chief economist, joins CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ to discuss his predictions on the Fed's next moves, economic outlook, employment, government fiscal spending, and more.

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, ’ Organizations: Citigroup Locations: U.S

"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ Fed caution may be justified if the labor market starts to deteriorate. Here's why that could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.

Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico

☆ Expect first Fed rate cut to come in June, says Citi's Hollenhorst
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect first Fed rate cut to come in June, says Citi's HollenhorstAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the lack of data showing the weakening labor market, the trend on wages, and what could be keeping the economy from recession.

Persons: Citi's Hollenhorst Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Citi

☆ Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on US economy wrong — for now
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Lloyd Lee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio told WSJ that the US economy's performance has surprised them. AdvertisementChase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge-fund founder Ray Dalio appear to be hedging on their doom-and-gloom predictions for the US economy after warning for some time that a recession was imminent. In September 2022, Dalio told MarketWatch that, as stocks and bonds suffer, the US will likely slide into a recession in 2023 or 2024. Advertisement"I was bearish on the economy," Dalio told The Wall Street Journal. Dimon told the newspaper that he "would have thought some of the fiscal stimulus would have worn off by now."

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, —, Dalio, Dimon, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg, CNBC's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Wall Street, Citi's, Rosenberg Research Locations: Ukraine

☆ A closely watched gauge of economic activity says no recession headed for the US
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since April 2020. It marks the first time since July 2022 that the gauge is not signaling a recession ahead. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index– a gauge of future economic activity — dropped 0.4% to 102.7 in January, signaling the lowest level since April 2020 when the US economy was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic-spurred lockdowns. "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," the Conference Board's Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said on Tuesday. As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead."

Persons: —, LEI, Monica, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Side hustles are becoming young people's safety net amid so much economic uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.

Persons: —, I've, Andrew Hollenhorst, we’re, hasn’t, Gen Zer, Jackie Mitchell, Mitchell, Business Insider’s Madison Hoff, Michell isn’t, Zers, don’t, Z, Eve Upton, Clark, Keida Dervishi, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich, Bryan Erickson, Craig Hastings, Isabel Fernandez Pujol, Oppenheimer, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Citi, Boston Globe, Labor, Getty, Netflix, Walmart Locations: California, TikTok, New York, London

☆ Just not seeing the soft landing thesis in the data, says Citi's Hollenhorst
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJust not seeing the soft landing thesis in the data, says Citi's HollenhorstAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss Hollenhorst's expectations for a recession this year, whether the data has pointed to better economic growth, and if any rate cut path would be more dramatic than initially thought.

Persons: Citi's Hollenhorst Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Citi

☆ No soft landing: The US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist said. The economic data, while strong on the surface, is actually hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. AdvertisementThe soft landing dream is over. Instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024. "There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a CNBC interview.

Persons: —, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Service, Citi, CNBC, Business

☆ CNBC Daily Open: U.S. economy's state of play
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jonathan Ernst | ReutersWhat you need to know todayThe bottom lineAll eyes will be on the state of the U.S. economy as the first official reading of fourth-quarter GDP data drops Thursday morning. "Data released [Thursday] may in retrospect turn out to document the one quarter of true 'Goldilocks' conditions," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. Since 2016, a slew of government data was published the day before the GDP report — namely, information on business inventories and trade, which are part of the GDP calculation.

Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Andrew Hollenhorst, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: CNBC, Flex, Reuters, Citi, Pantheon Locations: U.S, West Columbia, South Carolina

☆ US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 10 experts say it's going to happen.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are 10 projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. FebruaryIn August, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

Persons: —, Preston Caldwell, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, we'll, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Morningstar, UBS, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: North America's

☆ We're still calling for S&P 500 to be back at all-time highs by mid-2024: JPMorgan’s Ausenbaugh
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're still calling for S&P 500 to be back at all-time highs by mid-2024: JPMorgan’s AusenbaughAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief economist, and Elyse Ausenbaugh, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management global investment strategist, join 'Squawk Box' to preview September's CPI inflation data, the Fed's inflation fight, the impact of high Treasury yields on rate hikes, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan’s, Andrew Hollenhorst, Elyse Ausenbaugh Organizations: Citi, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management

☆ Here's why Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst sees a possibility of recession ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst sees a possibility of recession aheadAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the economist's thoughts on the Federal Reserve, why there's been such a back and forth between the rate narratives, and more.

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, there's Organizations: Citi, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in some 22 years. That would put the funds rate around 5.1%. The projection for the fed funds rate also moved higher for 2025, with the median outlook at 3.9%, compared with 3.4% previously. Over the longer term, FOMC members pointed to a funds rate of 2.9% in 2026. "Chair Powell and the Fed sent an unambiguously hawkish higher-for-longer message at today's FOMC meeting," wrote Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, we'll, Adriana Kugler, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Markets, Nasdaq, Fed, Citigroup Locations: oscillated

☆ US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 9 experts say it's going to happen.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are nine projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. AdvertisementAdvertisementFebruaryOn August 31, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

Persons: Bob Michele, J.P, —, we'll, Preston Caldwell, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Bloomberg Television, Morgan Asset, Morningstar, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: Wall, Silicon, North America's

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.

☆ Transitory inflation is in goods, not services: Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTransitory inflation is in goods, not services: Citi's Andrew HollenhorstPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, Dennis Lockhart, former Atlanta Fed president, and Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed policy aiding natural disinflation, where core goods inflation is headed, and Chair Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole remarks.

Persons: Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst Peter Boockvar, Dennis Lockhart, Andrew Hollenhorst, Jackson Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Atlanta Fed, Citi

☆ Surging bond yields add to pressure for Powell's big speech Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

All eyes will be trained on the central bank leader when he makes his annual address Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "Powell will need to choose whether to accept or push back against the 'higher-for-longer' narrative at Jackson Hole on Friday." Bond yields are a helpful guide to inflation as they represent a measure of where markets think growth, policy and prices are heading. That has come with one quarter-point Fed rate increase along with rising expectations that the economy may be able to avoid a much-predicted recession. This year's Jackson Hole symposium topic is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Jackson, Hollenhorst, Steven Blitz Organizations: Federal, Kansas City, Citigroup, Fed, TS Lombard Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Kansas

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