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Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."
Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek
watch nowThe one-year grace period for student loan borrowers who miss a payment expired this week. The goal of the 12-month "on ramp" to repayment was to give borrowers some breathing room as they worked student loan payments back into their budgets. Some borrowers haven't made payments in yearsCongress initially passed legislation to allow federal student loan borrowers to pause their loan payments in March 2020 as part of the Covid economic response. It's now been roughly a year since student loan payments resumed. TransUnion data shows that just over half of student loan borrowers made payments over the past several months.
Persons: servicers, haven't, they've, Billy Hensley, Intuit Credit Karma, Karma, Brandon Bell, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Sallie Mae's, delinquencies, Liz Pagel, hasn't, Pagel, Andrew Housser, Housser Organizations: National Endowment, Financial Education, CNBC, Financial Wellness, Board, Intuit Credit, Rice University Library, Getty, CNBC's, College, Finance Locations: HOUSTON , TEXAS, Houston , Texas, Atlanta
Port of Miami dockworkers strike near the port entrance and demand a new labor contract, on October 1, 2024 in Miami, Florida. One rule of thumb is that for each strike day, it takes nearly a week to get ports operating at normal levels. watch now"We think fears around the potential economic impacts are overdone," wrote Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics. "Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories. "There is little chance that the administration would risk jeopardizing its recent economic successes less than two months before a tightly-contested election," he said.
Persons: Giorgio Viera, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hollenhorst, Bradley Saunders, Saunders, there's Organizations: Afp, Getty, International Longshoreman's Association, U.S . Maritime Alliance, Labor, RSM, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Citigroup, New, New York Fed, Capital Economics, ILA Locations: Miami, Miami , Florida, East, Gulf, U.S, United States, West Coast, New York, North America
Rebel Wilson and her fiancée Ramona Agruma married in Italy on September 28, per People. Wilson announced her relationship with Agruma in June 2022 after she was almost outed by a reporter. AdvertisementRebel Wilson and her partner Ramona Agruma are now married. Instagram/Rebel Wilson (@rebelwilson)Before dating Agruma, Wilson's last publicly known relationship was with Jacob Bush, a member of the Anheuser-Busch family, per Forbes. I end with, 'So in this cliché way, on this cliché day, Ramona Agruma, will you marry me?'
Persons: Rebel Wilson, Ramona Agruma, Wilson, Agruma, , Royce Lillian Elizabeth, Instagram, Wilson's, Jacob Bush, Busch, Bush, Lemon, , Andrew Hornery, Hornery, Scott Eisen, Airbnb Wilson, Ramona Organizations: Service, Business, Anheuser, Forbes, Disney, Sydney Morning Herald Locations: Italy, Australian, Sardinia, Lemon Limon, Los Angeles
CNN —Andrew Holmes’ images of trucks on Californian highways are sun-drenched, saturated and sharp. Now, Holmes’ works have been brought together in a book — “Gas Tank City” (Circa Press) — alongside a show of the same name at London’s Architectural Association (AA). The drawings that make up the "Gas Tank City" book and exhibition celebrate every inch of the classic American truck, particularly the iconic Kenworth model. While the words “hyperreal” and “photorealistic” are used to describe his work, Holmes points out that the drawings are “completely unlike” photographic images. Together, “Gas Tank City” creates a portrait of life on the road, detached from specificities of time and place.
Persons: Andrew Holmes, Holmes ’, Holmes, Richard Rogers, , ” Holmes, Organizations: CNN, Gas, Press, London’s Architectural Association, AA, Centre Pompidou, , “ Gas Locations: Paris, Bromsgrove, New York City, Los Angeles, California, London, Andrew Holmes In California, England, “ Gas Tank,
It’s also here, on an unassuming downtown street, a small start-up called Energy Singularity is working on something extraordinary: nuclear fusion energy. Nuclear fusion, the process that powers the sun and other stars, is painstakingly finicky to replicate on Earth. The Chinese government is pouring money into the venture, putting an estimated $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually into fusion, according to Jean Paul Allain, who leads the US Energy Department’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences. The US was among the world’s first to move on the futuristic gambit, working on fusion research in earnest since the early 1950s. CNNThe US has been a fusion leader for decades; it was the first nation to apply fusion energy in the real world — in a hydrogen bomb.
Persons: It’s, Lam Yik Fei, Jean Paul Allain, Biden, , it’s, ” Allain, Andrew Holland, Holland, , ” Holland, Damien Jemison, Lawrence, Melanie Windridge, Mikhail Maslov, Allain Organizations: CNN, 6G, Beijing outspends DC, New York Times, US Energy Department’s, Fusion Energy Sciences, Private, Nikkei . Energy, MIT, Fusion Industry Association, Princeton, Physics, American, America, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, ” CNN, China’s National Energy Administration, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Fusion Energy, EAST, UK Atomic Energy Authority Locations: Shanghai, America, China, Beijing, Washington, DC, Japan, Europe, United States, Hefei, Xinhua, Massachusetts, Hiroshima, California, Lawrence Livermore
Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, , Andrew Hollenhorst, , ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, , “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko
Beryl moved into the the Gulf of Mexico Friday and took aim at the south Texas coast after battering Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Texas officials issued disaster declarations and urge coastal residents to prepare as the storm headed their way. The storm's center Friday afternoon was in the Gulf just off Mexico, about 615 miles (995 kilometers) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Some Texas counties have already issued voluntary evacuation orders in low-lying areas, and Texas officials urged coastal residents to prepare. Beryl spread destruction in Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Barbados this week.
Persons: Beryl, Tulum, Gov, Dan Patrick, Patrick, Nim Kidd, Storm Alberto, Vincent, Laura Velázquez, Beryl hadn't, Balcaza, Lara Marsters, Andrew Holness, Hurricane Beryl, St Elizabeth, Baga Organizations: U.S, National Hurricane Center, Texas, Storm Locations: Mexico, Texas, Yucatan Peninsula . Texas, Corpus Christi , Texas, Gulf, Rio Grande, Corpus Christi, Northeastern Mexico, Jamaica, St, Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, Venezuela, Boise , Idaho, Yucatan
Here's what to expect from Friday's big jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors will be looking to May's nonfarm payrolls report for more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve can ease up in its battle against inflation. "The jobs report for May is now particularly consequential," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. "A weaker reading [of less than 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4% or more] would be a final piece of evidence that the slowdown will continue. Citi expects that the report will show just 140,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate hitting 4% for the first time since January 2022. Markets currently are pegging the first rate cut to come in September, with one more on the way in December.
Persons: nonfarm, Dow Jones, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S, payrolls
Citigroups' Andrew Hollenhorst: Expect a hard landing for U.S.
  + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCitigroups' Andrew Hollenhorst: Expect a hard landing for U.S.Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup US chief economist, joins CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ to discuss his predictions on the Fed's next moves, economic outlook, employment, government fiscal spending, and more.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, Organizations: Citigroup Locations: U.S
The US economy is headed for an economic hard landing driven by a deteriorating labor market, Citigroup's chief US economist told CNBC. That tends to snowball," Andrew Hollenhorst said about the job market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA deteriorating labor market will be what causes the US economy to quickly turn sour, according to Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup's chief US economist. That tends to snowball and end up in something that looks more like a hard landing."
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, Organizations: CNBC, Service, Business
People stand in front of a Reserve Bank of India logo at the Global Fintech Fest in Mumbai, India, 5 September, 2023. Instead, there's been a flurry of activity this month at a number of regulators across India's financial system. That frightened bank investors and immediately knocked off more than 3% from the India Nifty PSU Bank index. "RBI has been tightening the screws," Rajeev Agrawal, hedge fund manager and managing partner at DoorDarshi India Fund, told CNBC's Inside India. We also had hedge fund manager Andrew Holland, who spoke on India's infrastructure projects and the outlook for the country's economy.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, there's, Nirmala Sitharaman, SEBI, Rajeev Agrawal, Agrawal, Shailendra Singh, India's, they've, Dinesh Kumar Khara, Andrew Holland, Sri Jegarajah Organizations: Reserve Bank of, Global, Securities and Exchange Board of India, Reserve Bank of India, Futures Industry Association, Bombay Stock Exchange, Reuters, India Nifty, DoorDarshi India Fund, Peak XV Partners, Sequoia Capital, CNBC, CNBC Pro, U.S ., State Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Center Locations: Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, India, Sequoia, Sequoia Capital India, Southeast Asia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Sri, Japan, Indian, Chennai
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia's infrastructure spending will have a multiplier effect across industries: Hedge fund managerAndrew Holland of Avendus Capital Public Markets Alternate Strategies discusses India's infrastructure projects and the outlook for the country's economy.
Persons: Andrew Holland Organizations: Avendus Capital
"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America
Agrawal, a 45-year-old serial entrepreneur who founded the period-underwear company Thinx and the bidet startup Tushy, has always poured herself into her businesses. That July, Agrawal gave birth to her son, Hiro Happy Horn Agrawal. AdvertisementAfter leaving Thinx, Agrawal, pictured here in her Texas home, poured her energy into her bidet startup Tushy. Before Thinx, before Tushy, Agrawal was an analyst at Deutsche Bank, working in an office near the World Trade Center. In 2011, she cofounded period-underwear company Thinx with her twin sister, Radha, and a friend, Antonia Saint Dunbar.
Persons: Miki Agrawal, Agrawal, she's, We're, missteps she'd, Miki Agrawal Agrawal, Andrew Horn, Agrawal's, Horn, Instagram, she'd, Hiro Happy Horn Agrawal, Forbes, Tushy, they'd, Thinx, Ilana Panich, , hadn't, they're, Richard Wolf, Radha, Antonia Saint Dunbar, Nicholas Hunt, undressed, wasn't, Shama Amalean Skinner, Amalean Skinner, Maria Molland Selby, welling, Miki, who's, Justin Allen, She'd, Hiro, Jason Ojalvo, Ojalvo, Horn —, Melissa Pruett, Pruett, Jessica Fern's, I've, exes, it's, wifedom, hummus —, Happie Hoffman, Austin, Tesla, Elon Musk, Musk's, Kimbal, Argawal Organizations: New York, Commission, Human Rights, Washington Post, CNBC, Business, Deutsche Bank, World Trade, New York Magic, Food Network, New York Magazine, Antonia Saint Dunbar ., Nike, Outfront Media, New, MTA, New York Times, Glamour, Amazon Locations: New, playa, Texas, Tribeca, West, Williamsburg, Park, America, Canada, Orlando, Thinx, Costa Rica, Horn, Oregon, Austin
A strong jobs outlook raises the potential of greater inflation pressures, meaning the central bank might be less eager to ease policy. Indeed, there are some signs that the labor market's strength may not be as robust as the headline nonfarm payrolls numbers indicate. Economists both on Wall Street and at the Fed suspect swelling immigration numbers are playing a role in boosting employment and keeping the labor market so tight. With political clamoring intensifying for the U.S. to tighten its border controls, the resilience of the labor market then could be jeopardized depending on how large a role immigration is playing. "Another strong report raises the potential that the deterioration in labor markets we have been expecting will be avoided.
Persons: nonfarm, Seema Shah, Shah, Mohamed El, There's, Goldman Sachs, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Asset Management, Allianz, Fed, CNBC, Wall, Congressional, Citigroup, Citi Locations: it's, Italy, U.S, South America, Central America, Mexico
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect first Fed rate cut to come in June, says Citi's HollenhorstAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the lack of data showing the weakening labor market, the trend on wages, and what could be keeping the economy from recession.
Persons: Citi's Hollenhorst Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Citi
Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio told WSJ that the US economy's performance has surprised them. AdvertisementChase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge-fund founder Ray Dalio appear to be hedging on their doom-and-gloom predictions for the US economy after warning for some time that a recession was imminent. In September 2022, Dalio told MarketWatch that, as stocks and bonds suffer, the US will likely slide into a recession in 2023 or 2024. Advertisement"I was bearish on the economy," Dalio told The Wall Street Journal. Dimon told the newspaper that he "would have thought some of the fiscal stimulus would have worn off by now."
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, , Dalio, Dimon, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg, CNBC's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Wall Street, Citi's, Rosenberg Research Locations: Ukraine
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since April 2020. It marks the first time since July 2022 that the gauge is not signaling a recession ahead. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index– a gauge of future economic activity — dropped 0.4% to 102.7 in January, signaling the lowest level since April 2020 when the US economy was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic-spurred lockdowns. "The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," the Conference Board's Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said on Tuesday. As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead."
Persons: , LEI, Monica, Andrew Hollenhorst, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.
Persons: , I've, Andrew Hollenhorst, we’re, hasn’t, Gen Zer, Jackie Mitchell, Mitchell, Business Insider’s Madison Hoff, Michell isn’t, Zers, don’t, Z, Eve Upton, Clark, Keida Dervishi, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich, Bryan Erickson, Craig Hastings, Isabel Fernandez Pujol, Oppenheimer, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Citi, Boston Globe, Labor, Getty, Netflix, Walmart Locations: California, TikTok, New York, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJust not seeing the soft landing thesis in the data, says Citi's HollenhorstAndrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss Hollenhorst's expectations for a recession this year, whether the data has pointed to better economic growth, and if any rate cut path would be more dramatic than initially thought.
Persons: Citi's Hollenhorst Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Citi
The US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist said. The economic data, while strong on the surface, is actually hinting at signs of a decline, as seen in the latest jobs report. AdvertisementThe soft landing dream is over. Instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024. "There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a CNBC interview.
Persons: , Andrew Hollenhorst Organizations: Service, Citi, CNBC, Business
EMPIRE, Mich. (AP) — A man accused of diverting a national park river to ease boat access to Lake Michigan has been convicted of two misdemeanors. Andrew Howard of Frankfort was found guilty of tampering and vandalism Wednesday during a brief trial in front of U.S. Magistrate Judge Ray Kent. In August 2022, a National Park Service ranger witnessed Howard digging with a shovel so the Platte River in the Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore would be diverted into one of the Great Lakes, prosecutors said in a court filing. U.S. Attorney Mark Totten said Howard had a policy dispute with the National Park Service and “took matters into his own hands.”The Park Service no longer dredges the Platte River. As a result, sediment and sand build up, reducing the ability to get boats to Lake Michigan.
Persons: Andrew Howard of Frankfort, Judge Ray Kent, Howard, Lauren Biksacky, Attorney Mark Totten, Organizations: U.S, National Park Service, Associated Press, Attorney, Service Locations: Mich, Lake Michigan, Platte
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. economy's state of play
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jonathan Ernst | ReutersWhat you need to know todayThe bottom lineAll eyes will be on the state of the U.S. economy as the first official reading of fourth-quarter GDP data drops Thursday morning. "Data released [Thursday] may in retrospect turn out to document the one quarter of true 'Goldilocks' conditions," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. Since 2016, a slew of government data was published the day before the GDP report — namely, information on business inventories and trade, which are part of the GDP calculation.
Persons: Joe Biden, Jonathan Ernst, Andrew Hollenhorst, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, , Jeff Cox Organizations: CNBC, Flex, Reuters, Citi, Pantheon Locations: U.S, West Columbia, South Carolina
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