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☆ Amundi Institute discusses outlook for China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina growth will be lower but more stable if it cuts reliance on property sector: Amundi InstituteMahmood Pradhan of the Amundi Institute discusses the economic outlook for China.

Persons: Mahmood Pradhan Organizations: Amundi, Amundi Institute Locations: China

☆ As China and the U.S. redefine geopolitics, Europe faces a win-win situation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A member of the Peoples Armed Police stands guard in front of the flag of the European Union at the European Delegation in Beijing, China. As the United States looks at disengaging from China, Europe could soon find itself in a sweet spot. "The U.S.' hawkish policy stance towards China means that China needs to improve relations with Europe to mitigate the impact of export controls. Therefore, China has an incentive to work hard on improving EU relations," Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Institute, told CNBC via email. "Viewed from China, the EU is the most important high-income market that it still has largely unfettered access to.

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

March saw six interest rate hikes across eight meetings by central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies. This follows six interest rate hikes delivering 250 bps of uplift across six meetings by G10 central banks in February. "By clearly separating financial and price stability goals and tools, major central banks carried on with rate hikes through the tumult." However, the world's top central banks are openly contemplating an early end to their rate hikes, not least because of the recent financial turmoil. This compares with February, when 13 emerging central banks met and only four hiked by a total of 175 bps.

☆ Yellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYellen's comments on bank support are worrying for potential spillover into economy, strategist saysMonica Defend, chief strategist at Amundi Institute, discusses market nerves and the situation in European and U.S. banks.

☆ Don't expect EU to win big concessions on IRA, Amundi Institute says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect the EU to win big concessions on the IRA, Amundi Institute saysAnna Rosenberg of the Amundi Institute says "ultimately, the EU cannot match the [U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.]"

Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest in three months at 4.65%, now on par with the current Fed policy rate. Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach described the payrolls as a "mood changing" print that's seen markets chase rates higher as if gripped by a sort of reverse FOMO - fear of missing out. Reports circulated last week of swaps and options market activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that bet on market rates touching 6%, or at least hedging against that possibility. If that's true, the battle over the terminal rate may now be overtaken by how long the Fed can keep rates higher to achieve its goals. BofA chart on peak rates from fund manager surveyInflationThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ 'Stay cautious' as earnings recession could be a risk for stock markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Stay cautious' as earnings recession could be a risk for stock markets, strategist saysMonica Defend, head of Amundi Institute at Amundi Asset Management, says it wants to get a clear picture "if not on the economic cycle, at least on the earnings cycle."

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

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