In 2024, the polls conducted in the last two weeks understated his support by 2.4 points on average. First, it’s possible that the polls — once again — failed to capture enough new voters or voters who changed their votes from backing Biden in 2020 to backing Trump in 2024. This is a statistical correction that pollster used this cycle to address the previous undercount of Trump voters. Properly understood, pre-election polls can play an important role in democracy by providing a sense of what outcomes seem possible. Instead, we should consider how we can use pre-election polls in ways that convey the electoral possibilities at play and better describe the uncertainties involved.

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