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☆ 'Sell the first rate cut': Bank of America's top global strategist warns stocks could be in for trouble as the economy heads toward a hard landing and the Fed gets set to slash rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."

Persons: —, America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S

☆ 5 defensive trades to make if stagflation and hard-landing fears cause a stock sell-off, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.

Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan

☆ Stocks' bull run will end in a bubble or recession, says Bank of America strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, —, of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan

☆ A fund manager beating 98% of his peers over the last 10 years breaks down why the stock market resembles the 'Nifty 50' bubble of the 1970s, when the market's biggest names got crushed as inflation s
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China

☆ Long cash and short tech: The ultimate contrarian trades as investors turn the most bullish in 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investor sentiment has turned so bullish that Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks it's time to consider a few contrarian trades. For the first time since April 2022, investors stopped predicting a recession in the U.S., the BofA survey showed. The Wall Street firm's widely followed investment strategist Hartnett is recommending a few contrarian trades for a "hard landing" scenario this year. He said investors could go long cash and defensive stocks, while shorting technology shares that have led the market rally over the past year. For a "no landing" scenario, where the economy would continue to grow but inflation stays high, the strategist recommends buying commodities, energy stocks as well as the greenback.

Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: America's, Survey, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks the market is ignoring risks of a hard landing in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We believe the risk of a 'hard landing' for the economy is higher-than-expected." In that kind of a climate, Hartnett expects commodities, including copper and oil, to outperform, along with bonds and cash. "We are sellers of crowded 'no landing' plays into recession," Hartnett said, making a call that includes the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks along with semiconductors, homebuilders and biotech. The firm is "buyers of 'hard landing' plays at onset of recession," he said, including REITs, banks, defensive stocks, small-cap stocks and China. Despite Hartnett's warnings, BofA overall is looking for a soft landing with easier monetary policy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Bulls, U.S ., Reserve Locations: BofA, China

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Falling job openings raise red flags for the stock market - 'Sell the last hike'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

An ongoing decline in job openings is not a good sign for the stock market, according to Bank of America. Job openings have dropped 27% since their peak of 12 million in March 2022. The bank highlighted that since 2001, job openings and the S&P 500 have had a strong correlation. With job openings down 27% since their March 2022 peak of 12 million, that suggests the stock market is likely to follow. "Strong correlation between US job openings (labor demand) and stock market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.

Persons: bode, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, that's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America's, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Tech is the 'most crowded trade' as stock-market bearishness rises to the highest levels so far this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are loading up on mega-cap tech stocks as they turn more bearish, according to Bank of America. The bank said tech is the "most crowded trade" followed by shorting banks and shorting the US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey, tech stocks are the "most crowded trade" on Wall Street as bearishness towards the broader stock market hits its highest level so far this year. Mega-cap tech stocks have a war chest of cash and a wide moat around their businesses that in the past have enabled steady growth during periods of economic weakness.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ The next bull market in stocks won't kick off until the Fed is forced to bail out the US government, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The next bull market in stocks won't happen until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bail out the US government, according to Bank of America. BofA said that high rates will result in a staggering increase in interest payments on America's $31 trillion debt. The bank said US government debt is expected to soar by more than $21 trillion over the next 10 years. That's $5.2 billion every single day, or $218 million every single hour, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note. "And that's when the next great bull market in risk begins," Hartnett said.

☆ Here are 5 reasons why the US could be in a recession by March, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy could enter a recession in 10-12 weeks, according to Bank of America. These are the five reasons why Bank of America believes a recession could hit by March 2023. This potential recession has been called the most telegraphed recession in history because everyone seems to be expecting a decline. Bank stocks are down 10% in just four days. Bank stocks are often described as a "canary in the coal mine", and feel the pain of a downturn earlier than stocks in other sectors.

☆ Stagflation is now the consensus view on Wall Street for 2023 as investor sentiment remains historically bearish, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The consensus view on Wall Street is that stagflation will plague the stock market in 2023, according to Bank of America. A survey from the bank found that 92% of fund managers expect a period of high inflation and low economic growth next year. The bearish outlook comes as cash levels sit near record highs, signaling the lingering bearish sentiment. That dynamic sets contrarian investors up for a solid trade, as investor sentiment remains historically bearish. Other sentiment indicators are also showing overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among investors, like the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment survey.

☆ Hedge funds ramp up market bets as volatility brings the asset class back into favor
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on September 21, 2022 in New York City. The extreme market volatility is not causing hedge funds to back down. In other words, they are putting money to work in a big way to capitalize on this market volatility for clients, likely mostly from the short side. This speaks to hedge fund strategies," said Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS. "Hedge funds have been a rare bright spot this year, with some strategies, like macro, performing particularly well."

☆ The best investing stories of July: How to win the next phase of COVID-19 — 'hidden' high-upside businesses — record-cheap value stocks
▼ + stars: | 2020-08-04 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Many of them are preparing for the next phase of life in the stock market — one characterized by stimulus uncertainty and a US economic recovery that's lagging the rest of the world. He foresees a so-called squeeze higher for value stocks, and recommends that investors position their portfolios to profit from a rotation away from popular growth names. Look no further:Chart of the weekJPMorganThe JPMorgan chart above — compiled by the firm's quant guru, Marko Kolanovic — shows that value stocks are now trading at a record cheapness relative to growth. Kolanovic's takeaway from this trend is that value stocks are susceptible to a squeeze higher, and investors should rightly position their portfolios ahead of time. — Marko Kolanovic, global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research at JPMorgan, on why he sees a value-stock rally in the cards

☆ The definitive guide to getting started in real-estate investing
▼ + stars: | 2020-07-21 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But have you ever considered real-estate investing? If you aren't yet a subscriber to Investing Insider, you can sign up here. Our research culminated in a definitive guide to getting into real-estate investing. Among Mittal's funds is the StocksPlus Long Duration Fund, which consistently beats 99% of peers. — Bill Miller, the founder of Miller Value Partners, whose record-setting fund trounced the market for 15 consecutive years

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