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A DJI Inspire 1 Pro drone is flown during a demonstration at the SZ DJI Technology Co. headquarters in Shenzhen, China, on Wednesday, April 20, 2016. China has unveiled a set of export control regulations for so-called dual-use items, which refer to goods or technologies that can be used for civilian as well as military purposes, ahead of President Xi Jinping's trip to Russia. The regulations come amid intensified U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese companies which the U.S. deems have been supplying dual-use goods, such as drones, to aid Russia's war effort in Ukraine. China has attempted to show that "it is following similar norms as other nations in terms of how it regulates trade in dual-use goods," he added. Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, however, suggested that Russia will likely be exempted from the possible export controls.
Persons: Xi, Mao Ning, Benjamin Cavender, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Alex Capri Organizations: SZ, Technology, State, China Market Research Group, National University of Singapore Locations: Shenzhen, China, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Kazan, Washington, Asia, Natixis
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHong Kong needs to diversify and build 'growth engines': EconomistAlicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, talks about key challenges that Hong Kong faces, adding that the city's economy needs to be diversified further to attract talent and drive future growth.
Persons: Alicia Garcia Organizations: Hong, Asia Pacific Locations: Hong Kong, Natixis
But the measures that Beijing’s economic planning agency announced this week proved to be an anticlimax — the trillions of yuan that observers were hoping would be revealed never materialized. Beijing might even miss its annual growth target of 5% — a figure it often surpassed prior to the pandemic. But while Chinese officials project confidence, the markets and the country’s public seem less convinced. Its broader financial lethargy and this week’s market turmoil will hardly be welcomed by Beijing. Costphoto / NurPhoto via Getty ImagesDomestic stimulus aside, there have been outward signs that China’s economy is in trouble.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Long Wei, , Keyu Jin, Trump, Joe Biden, isn’t, Fu, Miao Yuqing, Miao, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, what’s, Zheng Shanjie, Yue Su, ” Su Organizations: Beijing, Traders, Investors, CSI, Getty Images, London School of Economics, The, Communist Party, U.S, AFP, Getty, , Asia Pacific, , National, Reform, Economist Intelligence Unit Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, Long, Lianyungang, Natixis, Guizhou province, Washington
China's economic woes dampen 'Golden Week' holiday travel
  + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Passengers arrive at the Beijing railway station on the first day of peak travel ahead of the National Day holidays in China's capital city on Sept. 29, 2023. China is expecting to see more travelers during Golden Week, but the country's persistent economic woes will likely continue to weigh on overall spending this holiday season. Prices for both domestic and outbound flights during the National Day period declined compared to last year, according to report by Trip.com released last month. During the Golden Week holiday last year, China saw domestic tourism revenue reach 753 billion yuan ($107.37 billion). By comparison, a single-day record of 20.7 million trips were made on May 1, the start of China's Labor Day holiday.
Persons: Shaun Rein, Rein, Trip.com, Alicia Garcia Herrero Organizations: Golden, Authorities, Ministry of Transport, China Market Research Group, Ministry of Culture, National Railway Administration, China's Labor, Tourism Locations: Beijing, China's, China, Tourism
Signage at the New World Tower, which houses the headquarters of New World Development Co., in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. New World Developmen suspended trading of its shares in Hong Kong on Thursday morning. Shares of Hong Kong's New World Development surged following the resignation of Adrian Cheng, a member of the founding family. Hong Kong listed shares of the major development company traded 23% higher after trading resumed on Friday. New World's woes come as property pains continue to plague Hong Kong and mainland China.
Persons: Adrian Cheng, Cheng, Eric Ma Siu, Cheung, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Hong Kong tycoons, China's Organizations: New, Hong, HK, Asia Pacific, CNBC, China's Locations: Hong Kong, China, Natixis, tycoons, Asia
Supporters of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hold party flags as they celebrate Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony on June 9, 2024. Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesThere is an "internal battle" happening within India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party over inviting Chinese investments, as the country strives to become Asia's manufacturing powerhouse, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis said. This proposal was shot down by Trade Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday who said that there was "no rethinking at present" on allowing Chinese investments into India, Reuters reported. Experts told CNBC that Chinese investments are needed in India's solar panel and battery manufacturing sectors — two areas that a report, citing Indian government sources last week, mentioned could see easing restrictions on Chinese investments. India increased scrutiny on Chinese investments into the country, and also blocked several Chinese mobile apps including TikTok following the incident.
Persons: Narendra Modi's, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Natixis, V Anantha, Piyush Goyal, Modi, Garcia, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Harsh, Pant, Tauseef Mustafa, Jaishankar, Punit Paranjpe Organizations: Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Asia, Trade, Reuters, CNBC, Department, Promotion of Industry, Internal, Bloomberg, ICT, Communication Technologies, New Delhi's Observer Research Foundation, Afp, Getty, India's Foreign, Adani Locations: Asia Pacific, China, India, Europe, loggerheads, Eastern Ladakh, Tokyo, U.S, Mundra
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhat Meloni achieved in her China trip this week is a win-win for both countries: EconomistAlicia García-Herrero from Natixis discusses China-Italy trade relations as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Beijing this week after pulling Italy out of BRI last year.
Persons: Meloni, Alicia García, Giorgia Meloni Locations: China, Natixis, Italy, Beijing, BRI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist discusses potential bond market impact of French election resultsAlicia Garcia-Herrero, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Natixis, outlines what a shift to the left would mean for France and bond markets.
Persons: Alicia Garcia Locations: Herrero, Asia, Pacific, France
India is not really China yet, economist says
  + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia is not really China yet, economist saysAlicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis says India is reducing imports "massively."
Persons: Alicia Garcia Locations: China, Natixis, India
The annual ritual is a point of local pride even as Eagle Pass draws wide attention for a showdown between Texas Gov. A few hours later, about 200 advocates were in a festive mood in the nearby town of Quemado ahead of a “Take Back Our Border” rally on Saturday. U.S. Border Patrol agents are denied entry. Eagle Pass, with about 30,000 people, has become a major corridor for illegal crossings in recent years, making it a target for Abbott's enforcement. The Biden administration told the Supreme Court that “Texas has effectively prevented Border Patrol from monitoring the border” at Shelby Park.
Persons: Rolando Salinas, Greg Abbott, Biden, ” Salinas, Connie Hinton, Valeria Wheeler, Alejandro Mayorkas, Mayorkas, Del, Jorge Barrera, ” Barrera, Ken Paxton, , Donald Trump, MAGA, ” Julio Vasquez, Iglesia Luterana, ” Alicia Garcia, Shelby, , Garcia, Elliot Spagat, Paul Weber Organizations: PASS, ” Cowboys, San Antonio Stock, Texas Gov, La Cabalgata Internacional, Border, Republican, Democratic White House, Border Patrol, . Homeland, Associated Press, Visitors, of Commerce, , Texas National Guard, Supreme, Patrol, Eagle Locations: Texas, Eagle, Piedras Negras, Mexico, United States, La Cabalgata Internacional La Grande, Quemado, Austin , Texas, Virginia, Rio Grande, U.S, Del Rio , Texas, Del Rio, Tucson , Arizona, San Diego, California, Shelby Park, “ Texas, Shelby, Iglesia Luterana San Lucas
watch nowAmundi warned a possible temporary economic blockade of Taiwan could alarm the markets. Political status quo, economic worriesChina has dismissed the outcome of Taiwan's elections, saying the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion. On Jan. 13, Taiwan delivered an unprecedented third presidential term to the ruling DPP's Lai, considered a China skeptic. Loss of legislature to temper DPP stanceThe DPP won the presidency, but it lost its majority in the the Legislative Yuan — Taiwan's parliament. Teneo's Wildau said Beijing was likely to continue refusing official dialogues with the DPP presidential administration, but could pursue conversations with KMT leaders.
Persons: Managment, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Nataxis, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Lai Ching, DPP's Lai, Wildau, Lai, Tsai, Mr Lai's, Yuan —, Yuan, Herrero, Teneo's Wildau Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan, Asia, DPP, Economist Intelligence Unit, KMT, Taiwan People's Party Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, China, Beijing
Veteran investor David Roche said India "is a slow trundling elephant" that still has many hurdles, but is now a viable alternative to China. "I think India stands to benefit from the decline in terms of the attractiveness of foreign direct investment and portfolio flows of China," Roche told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Friday. After overtaking China to become the world's most populous nation, India could also leapfrog its neighbor to also become the world's second-largest economy by 2075. "So I think we're looking at a transfer of not only fixed investment by corporations, but portfolio investments out of China and into India," Roche said. "I think one has to look to sound the current levels and a note of caution about that," Roche warned.
Persons: David Roche, " Roche, CNBC's, Roche, Alicia Garcia, Herrero Organizations: China, Investors, Economic, CNBC Locations: India, China, Asia, Natixis
[1/2] A China yuan note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. And funding BRI projects has helped China revitalise the once-stalled process of yuan internationalisation. Another policy bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, signed a yuan-based loan agreement with Saudi National Bank, while Bank of China helped Egypt issue Africa's first yuan-denominated Panda bonds. Beijing also allocated an additional 80 billion yuan ($10.94 billion) to its Silk Road Fund for BRI projects. "Can you do this in a targeted way with MOUs with all BRI countries?
Persons: Thomas White, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Alicia Garcia Herrero, China revitalise, Malaysia's Maybank, Haoxin Mu, Natixis, Garcia Herrero, Samuel Shen, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Initiative, Forum, Asia Pacific, Natixis, China International Capital Corp, China Development Bank, BBVA, Export, Import Bank of China, Saudi National Bank, Bank of, Fund, Thomson Locations: China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Beijing, Russia, Asia, U.S, Ukraine, Africa, Europe, Egypt's, BBVA Peru, Bank of China, Egypt
Pedestrians walk towards the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus train station at dusk in Mumbai, India, on Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2023. The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for India, saying the country's growth will remain strong in 2023 and 2024 — but analysts warn there will be headwinds ahead. According to the IMF's October update of its World Economic Outlook., India's economy will grow 6.3% in 2023, an increase from an earlier forecast of 6.1%. "India will continue to be a bright spot in the global economic picture," Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis said. Consumer spending remains one of the biggest growth drivers in the world's most populous nation, she added.
Persons: Alicia Garcia, Herrero Organizations: Monetary, CNBC, Asia Pacific, Consumer Locations: Shivaji Terminus, Mumbai, India, Natixis
Absorbing this “excess capacity” in the property sector will inevitably hurt China’s economic growth, according to Garcia-Herrero. The money from the sales funded their breakneck expansion, making real estate moguls some of the country’s richest people. The strategy largely worked until about three years ago when the Chinese government cracked down on excessive borrowing by the real estate industry because it was worried about the risk of financial instability. But overall, the property sector has contracted severely as it adjusts to a collapse in demand. “A fundamental rewiring of China’s economy will necessitate a focus on developing new industries, improving productivity, and bolstering rental markets,” said analysts from Stanford University and the ASPI.
Persons: , Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Garcia, they’re, Evergrande, Xu Jiayin, Xi Jinping, ” Mark Williams, Sheana Yue, Zichuan Huang, , — Michelle Toh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Investment, Asia Pacific, Getty, Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Regulators, Capital Economics, People’s Bank of China, Oxford Economics, Stanford University, Asia Society Policy Institute, Oxford Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Natixis, Wuhan, China's, Hubei, Japan
The United States imported nearly $127.5 billion in goods from Vietnam in 2022, compared with $101.9 billion in 2021 and $79.6 billion in 2020, according to US government data. The United States needs a trusted partner for its supply of chips, and Vietnam can do just that, Osius said. But that compares favorably with a global growth forecast of 3%, and is noticeably faster many of the world’s major economies, such as the United States, China and the eurozone. Politically, Vietnam shares many similarities to China in that it is an authoritarian one-party state that tolerates little dissent. Vietnam is an obvious choice, because it’s a cheap alternative to manufacturing in China, said García-Herrero.
Persons: Joe Biden, , Donald Trump’s, Nguyen Phu Trong, Biden, Antony Blinken, Evan Vucci, ” Ted Osius, Janet Yellen, Michael Every, Alicia García, Osius, chipmaker, Ho, “ We’re, Natixis, ” Osius, , — CNN’s Kyle Feldscher, Jeremy Diamond, Kevin Liptak Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, America, Apple, Intel, House, Communist Party of, ASEAN Business Council, CNN, United, Atlantic Council, Rabobank, White House, United State, Monetary Fund, , Netflix, Boeing Locations: Hong Kong, Vietnam, Washington, Hanoi, China, Asia, India, Communist Party of Vietnam, United States, Hanoi Nguyen Huy Kham, United, Beijing, The California, Ho Chi Minh City, Asia underwhelms
"There is a significant risk in the short term of financial crisis or other degree of economic crisis that would carry very substantial social and political costs for the Chinese government. By the time the global financial crisis hit in 2008-09, it had already met most of its investment needs for its level of development, economists say. To keep growth high, China in the 2010s doubled down on infrastructure and property investment, at the expense of household consumption. China has since backed away from major financial market liberalisation while plans to rein in state behemoths and introduce universal social welfare never quite materialised. "But at the same time there's a great fear of the short-term political and social risk, especially of provoking an economic crisis."
Persons: Xi Jinping's, William Hurst, Chong Hua, there's, Max Zenglein, We're, Logan Wright, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hurst, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Development, University of Cambridge, International Monetary Fund, Asia Pacific, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Japan, Beijing, Natixis
Fiscal stimulus, for instance, amounted to just a third of the aid offered in the United States, with no nationwide cash handouts. “A comprehensive policy mix — covering monetary and fiscal stimulus, including infrastructure, property, and consumption, alongside structural reforms,” would be helpful to rebuild confidence, they said. It was seen as a success and helped boost Beijing’s domestic and international political standing as well as China’s economic growth, which soared to more than 9% in the second half of 2009. China’s debt woes have only deepened during the Covid-19 pandemic, when three years of draconian restrictions and a real estate downturn drained the coffers of local government. “An infrastructure-led fiscal stimulus would need to be much bigger to have the same economic impact,” she said.
Persons: they’ve, , Robert Carnell, Craig Singleton, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, China “, wouldn’t, Zhu Min, Garcia, Xi Jinping, Derek Scissors, Singleton, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, ING Group, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Manufacturers, Asia Pacific, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Hong Kong, China, Asia, Pacific, Washington, , Beijing, United States, China’s, Tianjin
“Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering a liquidity trap due to the risks of balance-sheet recession,” said Natixis’s chief economist for Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. Yet about 180 domestic A-share companies say in their stock filings that they have invested in CDs this year. China’s 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil’s population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year. “I wouldn’t pour money into the stock market any time before I see a clear rising trend,” he said.
Persons: Florence Lo, , Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, , Byron Gill, , ” Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, ” Wu, John Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo’s Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai
Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.
Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore
"For China, it is 'bad news is good news' at the moment," said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. Even before the latest disappointing growth data, a slew of soft economic indicators had shown China's recovery was falling short, slamming the brakes on nascent stock market rallies. Foreign money has been leaving, with worries over China's cyber-security crackdowns and Sino-U.S. flaps over chips and rare metals adding to growth concerns. REVIEWING CHINAGoldman Sachs analysts led by Kinger Lau also believe a 'tactical market recovery' thesis is compelling, and project a 15% 12-month return for the CSI300. "We are conservative about the extent of the policy support down the road," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis.
Persons: Jun Bei Liu, Liu, Marcella Chow, CHINA Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau, it's, Mike Kelly, Alicia Garcia Herrero, Eugenia Victorino, SEB, Victorino, Ting Lu, Jason Xue, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Tribeca Investment Partners, CSI, Morgan Asset Management, CHINA, JPMorgan, PineBridge Investments, Nomura, Thomson Locations: China, Sydney, U.S, Asia, Natixis, Shanghai
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope will need about 10 years to reduce its rare earth dependency on China, says economistAlicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist of Natixis says that Europe will need about 10 years to reduce its rare earth dependency on China.
Persons: Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Natixis Locations: China, Europe
[1/2] Passengers wait to board trains at Shanghai Hongqiao railway station ahead of the five-day Labour Day holiday, in Shanghai, China, April 28, 2023. To get to the ancient temples, pagodas and grottoes she wanted to visit, she walked roughly 30,000 steps a day. "I can control the expenses, to go to many places for the least amount of money, but it is really tiring." "Maybe I didn't wear the right shoes, but my feet started to hurt after walking more than 10,000 steps," she said, joking that she exemplified "the battle-scarred version of special forces travel." ($1 = 6.9121 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Casey Hall and Shanghai newsroom; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Lincoln Feast.
China GDP"China is entering an 'atypical' deflation cycle, which means deflation amid economic recovery," said Jinyue Dong, senior economist at BBVA research. China's new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter. The central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements ratio (RRR) for the first time this year in March. But analysts say that is largely due to last year's low base caused by COVID-19 curbs that hit consumers the hardest, rather than underlying household demand. Reuters GraphicsNew household loans, mainly mortgages and consumer loans, accounted for 16% of total new loans in the first quarter, despite a jump in mortgages in March, while corporate loans made up for the rest.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAsian central banks should be relieved U.S. Fed continued to hike interest rates, economist saysAlicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis says it's better for Asia's central banks to know that the U.S. Federal Reserve is "on top of inflation."
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