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AdvertisementWith North Korean forces believed to be moving toward Russia's front lines, fears are growing that the Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase. Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia last week, according to US, South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence. The reports signaled a deepening military alliance between Russia and North Korea — an alliance that has been met with a muted response from China. AdvertisementThe bland statement may have been aimed at balancing its influence over North Korea and Russia with its relationship with Ukraine's Western allies. For North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un.
Persons: , Ukraine's, Bruce Klingner, Kim Jong Un, Ali Wyne, Sari Arho Havrén, Trump, Ann Marie Dailey Organizations: Service, Council, Foreign Relations, European Union, EU, Bank, China, Heritage Foundation, North, Royal United Services Institute, RAND Locations: China, Russia, Ukraine, South, North Korea, EU, Beijing, North, Eurasia, Korea
North Korea is solidifying ties with Russia, a change from its usual focus on China. AdvertisementRussian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday appeared to confirm reports that North Korea had sent thousands of troops to eastern Russia. "But the Chinese are waiting for an opportunity where North Korea, Russia, and China can come stronger together, and I think North Korea sending the troops to Russia is a testimony to that." AdvertisementFor North Korea, China has long been its most important ally, providing trade, diplomatic support, and military aid to Kim Jong Un. Jim Hoare, a former UK diplomat who was posted to North Korea, told BI that even if China was frustrated by North Korea's increasing closeness to Russia, it should bide its time.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Victor Cha, Jagannath Panda, Sari Arho Havrén, Kim Jong, Havrén, Ali Wyne, Jim Hoare, Hoare Organizations: Analysts, Service, Center for Strategic, International Studies, New York Times, Experts, Stockholm Center, South, Pacific Affairs, Royal United Services Institute, NATO Locations: Korea, Russia, China, North Korea, Ukraine, Washington, Beijing, South Korea, Japan, Eurasia, Pyongyang
Read previewIn the nine-month war between Israel and Hamas, an unlikely nation has emerged as a key power broker in the Middle East: China. Reconciling the groups with an eye to building a postwar Palestinian government is a diplomatic coup for Beijing, after years of trying to position itself as a power broker in the Middle East. China challenges US might in the Middle EastIn the last few years, China has challenged US influence in the Middle East. In 2023, it helped broker a restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after decades of proxy conflict. "China also doesn't want to sacrifice much to advance any of its interests in the Middle East," Jon Alterman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the US Congress in April.
Persons: , Fatah, Wang Yi, It's, Ali Wyne, Aaron David Miller, Wyne, Jon Alterman Organizations: Service, Hamas, Reuters, Business, PLO, West Bank, Crisis, Palestinian, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: Israel, East, China, Beijing, Gaza, Fatah, Washington, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, States
Read previewChina has pressed pause on arms control and nuclear proliferation talks with the US, blaming the suspension on US arms sales to Taiwan. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "China has chosen to follow Russia's lead in asserting that engagement on arms control can't proceed when there are other challenges in the bilateral relationship. US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping began talks on nuclear proliferation and arms control in November, ahead of the first formal dialogue between the US and China in five years. Representatives for Biden and Jinping did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.
Persons: , Matthew Miller, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Ali Wyne, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Biden, Jinping Organizations: Service, Communists, Business, US State Department, Crisis, Pentagon, Biden, Brookings Institution, Trump Locations: China, Taiwan, Beijing
Read previewChina's leader, Xi Jinping, rolled out the red carpet for his "old friend" Vladimir Putin on Thursday. For his part, Putin lavished praise on China, whose support has been vital during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But underneath the pageantry and rhetoric, Xi is under mounting pressure over his alliance with Putin — and he has good reason to be wary of their "no limits" partnership. President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend a concert marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China in Beijing. "Meeting with Putin now is Xi's way of showing that China will not bend to Western pressure," said Torigian.
Persons: , Xi, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Putin —, Xi Jinping, ALEXANDER RYUMIN, Zhao Tong, Graeme Thompson, Thompson, Joseph Torigian, Ali Wyne Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, BBC, Carnegie Endowment, Eurasia Group, Putin, Financial Times, School of International Service, American University, Xi, International Crisis Locations: Russian, Soviet, China, Ukraine, Russia, Beijing, Europe, Moscow, United States, Washington ,, America, Russia's, West
There was a risk, he said, that US-China relations could "return to a downward spiral." As such, the US-China relationship appears to have entered a dangerous period, and time may be running out to save it. The US has handed Ukraine billions in aid and military support to resist the invasion, with a new $61 billion bill passing this week. AdvertisementBlinken said he raised concerns about China's support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Blinken will have to overcome several hurdles for US-China relations to improve.
Persons: , Antony Blinken's, Xi Jinping, Wang Yi, Xi, Joe Biden, Ali Wyne, Wang, Blinken, Ian Bremmer Organizations: Service, Business, US, West, International Crisis, Russia, Eurasia Group, Bloomberg Locations: China, Ukraine, loggerheads, Taiwan, Washington, Beijing, US, Western Europe, Russia
But Xi is also trying to dent US global power on several fronts. AdvertisementChina's President Xi Jinping presented an uncharacteristically affable image Wednesday, smiling broadly for US business leaders at a meeting in Beijing. The Chinese leader sought to assure investors including Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm and Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group that the downturn in China's economy, its biggest contraction in 15 years, would be over soon. AdvertisementOn the one hand, Xi is seeking to implement China's long-term strategy of displacing the US as the world's pre-eminent power. China's economy, after decades of growth, is experiencing its most serious problems in decades.
Persons: Xi Jinping, He's, Xi, , Cristiano Amon, Stephen Schwarzman, Jonathan Ward, Ali Wyne, Joe Biden, Robert Daly, Wilson Organizations: Service, Qualcomm, Blackstone Group, United, Communist Party, US Navy, Taiwan, Wilson Center, CBS, International Crisis Group, Institute, NPR, US Locations: Beijing, China, Xinhua, United States, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Iran, North Korea
Under Xi Jinping's rule, China's economy has slowed after decades of growth. After decades of growth, China's economy is slowing, with a property market crisis causing consumer debt, deflation, a slowdown in spending, and an unemployment crisis. Xi walks a tightropeAs well as moves to close down scrutiny, the Party is unveiling ambitious measures to boost China's economy. But analysts say China continues to face deep economic problems. China's growth target, which is in line with last year's official growth figures, appears modest in comparison to the 10% annual growth it has experienced on average for the past few decades.
Persons: Xi, Premier Li Qiang, , Xi Jinping, Xi doesn't, Jonathan Ward, Ward, Ali Wyne, Li, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Premier, Analysts, Service, Communist Party, The New York Times, Hudson Institute, Chinese Communist Party, Crisis, BBC Locations: China, Beijing, Vladimir Putin's Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Moscow, Tehran
Xi is frustrated that Putin won't seek peace in Ukraine, reports say. China has touted a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that Russia hasn't pursued. China recently attended a peace summit in Saudi Arabia that was described by Russia as "doomed to fail." A European diplomat present at the discussions told the FT that the "mere presence of China shows Russia is more and more isolated." But Wyne cautioned against excessive faith in China's intervention to secure peace in Ukraine.
Persons: Xi, Putin, Russia hasn't, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin's, it's, Siberia that'd, June's Wagner, Ali Wyne, Wyne Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Putin, Kremlin, Eurasia Group, Saudi, Kyiv, Analysts Locations: Ukraine, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Moscow, Jeddah, European, Siberia, Beijing, Denmark, Iran
China's Xi Jinping warned Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons, The Financial Times reported. If Putin ignored Xi and acted on his nuclear threats to Ukraine, it'd humiliate the Chinese leader, an analyst said. He has provided the Russian president with crucial economic and diplomatic support amid sanctions and international isolation. This gives him leverage over the Russian president in seeking to deter him from a potentially catastrophic escalation of the conflict. Putin has previously shown a willingness to defy China, declaring he'd position nuclear weapons in Belarus in an apparent snub to Xi in March.
Persons: China's Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Xi, Putin, it'd, , Vladimir Putin of, Putin's, Dmitry Peskov, Sumantra Maitra, China Xi, Ali Wyne, Xi Jinping, Wagner Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Ukraine, Putin, Wednesday, European Union, Eurasia Group, Russian Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Vladimir Putin of Russia, China, Russian, Russia, Beijing, Belarus, West
Xi Jinping may be "contingency planning" in case Putin is deposed, an analyst told Insider. According to one analyst, Xi is likely already seeking to form closer relations with potential successors to the Russian president. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin meets with China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 24, 2023. ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty ImagesAnders Åslund, an economist and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Xi appears to be cultivating closer ties to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. At the April summit where the Chinese president visited Putin in Moscow, Xi held a rare one-on-one meeting with Mistushin, noted Åslund.
Persons: Xi, Putin, , Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Mishustin, ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV, Anders Åslund, Mistushin, Li Qiang, Mishustin, Ali Wyne, it's Organizations: Service, Russian, SPUTNIK, Getty, Atlantic Council, China's, of, Russian Security, Eurasia Group Locations: Russia, Russian, Beijing, Moscow, China, Ukraine, Siberia, Washington ,, United States
China startled the US by conducting a risky intercept of a spy plane over the South China Sea. China's longstanding claims over the South China Sea, through what is known as the nine-dash line, are not recognized by the international community — including other countries that border that waterway. A string of artificial islands in the South China Sea serves to extend China's military capability far into these waters, and is strongly opposed by the US. "I think defense departments should be talking to each other on a routine basis or should have open channels for communication," he said. "I don't think we are at the point where the US or China think that there's nothing to lose," he said.
Persons: , Defense Lloyd Austin, Jonathan Ward, Lloyd Austin, it's, Ward, Dr Zeno Leoni, Leoni, Nancy Pelosi's, Ali Wyne, there's Organizations: Service, Defense, Atlas Organization, Pacific Command, US, King's College, South China, Austin, Eurasia Group, AP, China's Ministry of Defense Locations: China, South China, Singapore, Hainan, South, United States, Chinese, France, Ukraine, Taiwan, Beijing, Washington, Russia, China's
China's president is seeking to exploit differences among Western allies, analysts say. Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) welcomes German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Grand Hall in Beijing in 2022. Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, and Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, are among the European leaders Xi has hosted. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping make a toast following their talks in Moscow on March 21, 2023. But Freudenstein cautioned European leaders against the belief that Xi can act as a mediator with Putin.
Russia and China have formed closer ties to counter the power of the US. But China is the dominant one in the partnership, with Russia weakened by the Ukraine war. At last week's summit, Xi proposed a peace plan in Ukraine that critics said mainly reflected Russian demands. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. But despite such tensions, the Russia-China alliance will likely persist because of the deep resentment Putin and Xi share over the US' status as the world's top superpower.
China appears to have cemented its dominance over Russia in a summit this week. China kept buying Russian oil — albeit at a hefty discount — and so helped keep the Russian economy afloat. Russia was offered no comparable stake in the far larger Chinese economy in return. The US has accused China of planning to send weapons and lethal aid to Russia to stem battlefield losses in Ukraine. China will likely seek to exert its new leverage over Russia to expand its global power, said Wyne.
A stunning reversal in Chinese stocks in November has investors once again reassessing whether now is the time to double down on this once-hot market. "Biden's comments that he did not see an imminent threat to Taiwan from China were also noteworthy...," said Chang to CNBC. Investors CNBC spoke to remain encouraged by the country's much-needed reopening but want more evidence to suggest Beijing is easing its zero-Covid policy. The latest third-quarter 13F filings ending Sept. 30 also show several reputable hedge funds reducing their exposure to Chinese tech stocks. These positions may have changed since the end of September, but the data does suggest buy-side investors remain cautious on owning Chinese tech.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWyne: It's unlikely that we see a substantial rebound in Chinese activity until 2023Ali Wyne, Senior Analyst of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss the impact of President Biden and Xi Jingping's meeting on the Chinese stock market.
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