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The group agreed in early October to cut its oil production target by 2 million bpd from November until the end of 2023. Given production restraints on some members of the alliance, the actual cut the group is expected to deliver is closer to between 1 million and 1.1 million bpd. "A further cut in production cannot ... be ruled out," PVM Oil analyst Stephen Brennock said. "Failure to do so risks sparking another selling frenzy," he added, without saying how low he thought prices could go. Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultancy Energy Aspects, told bank Jefferies that she did not expect OPEC+ to change tack yet.
This figure compares with 1.1 million bpd of offline capacity in September, and is above the 2015-2019 average for this period. Maintenance outages next month include Eni's Sannazzaro refinery in Italy, Repsol's (REP.MC) Tarragona refinery in Spain, and Galp Energia's (GALP.LS) Sines refinery, among others. read more"The European diesel market is looking a bit softer than we had expected say this time last month," Gallarti said, adding that the consultancy has softened its European demand forecast as economic pressures mount. read moreBut while higher imports and a softening demand outlook are helping to ease the pressure on diesel markets, widespread refinery outages in France, partly due to strike action, could tighten supplies again. Benchmark European diesel profit margins hit a two-week high of about $50 a barrel on Wednesday, based on Reuters assessments, driven by the French strikes.
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