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Bets on oil prices moving up from here are at their highest level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CME options market volatility data shows. Average daily volumes in energy options of the CME exchange overall are the highest since an all-time record in 2018. "The aftermath of the attacks and rising Middle East tensions did not impact oil prices as many investors expected, including ourselves," Unigestion multi-asset portfolio manager Sandrine Perret said. Reuters Graphics3/ DEFENCE STOCKSA gauge of defence stocks compiled by index provider MarketVector (.MVDEF) is 8% higher in the four weeks since the conflict began. It's also near eight-year highs versus the euro and therefore another asset class attracting questions about how it would perform if Middle East tensions are resolved.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Israel, Sandrine Perret, Derek Sammann, Gold, Jeff, Mikhail Zverev, Ron Temple, It's, Francesca Fornasari, Fornasari, Elisa Belgacem, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, David Evans Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S White, Aegon, Reuters, Global, Defence, Lazard Asset Management, Swiss, Insight Investment, Generali Investments, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Hamas, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Jordan, Egypt, China, Taiwan, Europe

Electronic boards showing stock information are pictured at the stock market, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November 5, 2020. "Such an escalation could lead to increased oil prices, concerns about oil supply, and the potential for a global economic downturn." In the unlikely event the United States sends troops into the Middle East, Belote expected a $20 jump in oil prices, "if not more". "Israel has better relations with other Arab countries compared to then," JP Morgan private bank strategist Madison Faller said in a note, "and global oil supply is not as concentrated." Reuters Graphics5/ TECH JITTERSWhat's good for oil stocks can be bad for big tech.

Persons: Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Hamza Meddeb, Malcolm H, Brent Belote, Belote, JP, Madison Faller, Nadia Martin Wiggen, Alessia Berardi, Amundi's Berardi, Trevor Greetham, Morgan Stanley, Jeff, London's Greetham, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Marc Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Oil, JP Morgan, Svelland, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Reuters, Swiss, Royal, Aegon, Deutsche Bank, Aerospace, Thomson Locations: Dubai, United Arab, Israel, Gaza, Beirut, IRAN, Iran, U.S, United States, Arab, Turkey, Ukraine, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Suez, London

Below are five charts showing what's been moved and/or shaken:1/SHOCK FOR THE STOCKSMSCI's 24-country emerging markets (EM) stocks index (.MSCIEF) is down 6% this month. It is still up for the year, though well below the 13.5% gain this year for MSCI's main global index, which has benefited from a boom in U.S. "mega-cap" stocks. "The markets that have underperformed are the lower-yielding markets like Asia," Mike Arno, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said. "The market doesn't seem to think that China is a major threat," said Aegon Asset Management's head of EM debt, Jeff Grills. Reuters Graphics5/OUT OF AFRICAThe other big trouble spot has been Africa, where debt markets have seen a sharp pullback.

Persons: Jason Lee, what's, Tayyip Erdogan's, Katherine Marney, Mike Arno, Jeff, Erdogan, Van Eck's, Eric Fine, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, Marc Jones, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, JPMorgan, Brandywine, FX, HK, EMBI, abrdn, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Africa, MIWD00000PUS, Hungary, America, Brazil, Argentina, Asia, TURKEY, Gabon, Niger, JPMorgan's Africa, London, New York

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - A recent spike in U.S. bond yields has come alongside muted expectations for inflation, a sign to some bond fund managers that economic resilience and high bond supply are now playing a larger role than second-guessing the Federal Reserve. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, tend to rise in an inflationary environment because inflation erodes the value of a future bond payout. But while higher moves in bond yields in the last several months were often driven by investors pricing in higher interest rates as the Fed sought to tame rising inflation, expectations on the pace of price rises have moved lower in recent weeks. Long-term Treasury yields account for factors such as inflation expectations and term premiums, or what investors demand to be compensated for the risk of holding long-term paper. A recent string of strong economic data despite higher interest rates has strengthened investor beliefs that interest rates will remain higher for longer, even if inflation is tamed.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Bond, ”, Calvin Norris, John Madziyire, Anthony Woodside, “, Aegon's Norris, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Aegon Asset Management, Investors, Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Securities, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, America

Many investors think that will only happen if interest rates go to levels just too high for investors to pass up. "You wonder whether they have left it too late" said Mikhail Volodchenko at one of Europe's largest fund managers AXA IM. Reuters Graphics4/LOCAL PROBLEMSIn contrast to the dollar bonds, Turkey's 'local' lira-denominated bonds have had a shocker. Even if the lira is taken out of the equation the bonds are still down around 13% since Erdogan's election win. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8920 euros)Reporting by Marc Jones and Canan Sevgili Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Şimşek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mikhail Volodchenko, Enver Erkan, Yatirim, Treasuries, COVID, Wednesday Erdogan, Simon Lue, Fong, Vontobel, Turkey's, Jeff, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe, Marc Jones, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: LONDON, AXA, Reuters, JPMorgan EMBI Global, NATO, Investment, Wednesday, United Arab Emirates, JPMorgan GBI, Street Global Markets, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Central, Turkish, Nigeria, Argentina, Turkey, U.S, Arab, Swiss, Lira

☆ Analysis: Dutch pension fund reform spells investment rethink
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The idea is that pension funds will allocate more risk to younger cohorts and less to those nearer retirement. The new rules also mean pension funds can be less strict in protecting against swings in interest rates and exchange rates using derivatives like swaps. Commerzbank expects a "seismic" change to the market, where Dutch pension funds are key players. Pension funds are surveying their members to understand how much risk different age groups are willing to take. Ultimately, interest rates determine how much risk pension funds need to take to generate future payments.

Persons: Eva Plevier, Wim Barentsen, Frank Vinke, Vinke, Jaap Teerhuis, Commerzbank, Onno Steenbeek, PGGM's Vinke, Achmea's, Gerard Moerman, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ABN AMRO, European, Achmea Investment Management, European Central Bank, Asset Management, Reuters Graphics, Aegon Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Amsterdam, Netherlands, AMSTERDAM

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ Turkey stocks rally, lira slips to record low after Erdogan victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The nation is grappling with a cost of living crisis, a plunging currency and depleted foreign reserves. MARKET REACTION:LIRA: The Turkish currency touched a fresh record low of 20.105 on Monday. "In a scenario where Turkey ran out of foreign currency, lira’s value would likely collapse, inflation would explode and goods shortages could occur. A painful crisis affecting all assets is on the way, with very high inflation, very low interest rates and no net foreign reserves. Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy."

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's administration is determined to oust current CEO Francesco Starace, several sources told Reuters. OPPORTUNITYWith almost 60 Gigawatt (GW) of installed capacity, Enel is one of the world's biggest players in renewable energy. The company, which has been hit by soaring gas prices and government measures capping bills to shield consumers, saw net profit slip to 5.4 billion euros last year, from 5.6 billion euros in 2021. In November Enel unveiled its updated strategy to 2025, pledging to cut net debt by 21 billion euros via asset disposals, while at the same time investing 37 billion euros and increasing installed renewable capacity by 21 GW. You can't have an Italian only Enel, it would be such a step back," de Lamaze said.

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - European banks risk jeopardising the path to net-zero carbon emissions and the growth of renewable energy unless they stop directly financing new oil and gas fields this year, investors managing assets worth more than $1.5 trillion said on Friday. ShareAction said the five banks and Britain's HSBC (HSBA.L) rank as the largest European financiers of the top oil and gas companies expanding production between 2016 and 2021. However, HSBC said in December that it would stop directly financing new oil and gas fields, joining other banks restricting asset financing, the NGO noted. The spokesperson pointed to the French bank's targets to reduce exposure to oil and gas production by 2025. The International Energy Agency said in 2021 that to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, no investment into new oil, gas and coal supply projects was needed.

"I can't imagine Pakistan not going on a back-to-back IMF programme." Pakistan's debt problemsPrime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s main election challenger is former cricket star Imran Khan, who was removed from the job last April but retains popularity. "There is just a long-term indebtedness problem," said Jeff Grills, the head of emerging markets debt at Aegon Asset Management, who held Pakistan bonds until the floods hit. Most of Pakistan's bonds are still trading at less than half their face value. Reuters GraphicsDIFFICULT TIMESSuch a restructuring of Pakistan's bonds would represent its first international default since 1999, according to the Bank of Canada-Bank of England Sovereign Default Database.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

"I think that this is going to be the most contentious debt ceiling debate in memory," Winograd said. "It would suggest that there's some type of premium being allocated to bills in that space where the risk of the debt ceiling starts to grow," Norris said. Some investors also believe lawmakers will be able to reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling without severely unsettling markets. Edward Al Hussainy, senior interest rate and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, thinks any debt ceiling tensions would eventually be resolved, calling the issue "a well rehearsed storyline." However, the heightened concerns about the debt ceiling are "an extra little justification on top" for the firm's positioning, Pride said.

Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is asking primary dealers of U.S. Treasuries whether the government should buy back some of its bonds to improve liquidity in the $24 trillion market. The Treasury is also querying whether reduced volatility in the issuance of Treasury bills as a result of buybacks made for cash and maturity management purposes could be a "meaningful benefit for Treasury or investors." But it let that exclusion expire and big banks had to resume holding an extra layer of loss-absorbing capital against Treasuries and central bank deposits. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a group of banks and investors that advise the government on its funding, has said that Treasury buybacks could enhance market liquidity and dampen swings in Treasury bill issuance and cash balances. The Treasury is posing the questions as part of its regular survey of dealers before each of its quarterly refunding announcements.

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