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☆ Retail spending report could show consumers still pouring money into the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer spending was expected to hold strong in September, possibly even more than forecast and enough to throw another wrinkle into the Federal Reserve's thought process. "If retail sales accelerate considerably, in our view, the narrative may shift further toward 'no landing' or even re-acceleration." "Monthly retail sales data can be volatile. For now, Bhave thinks a strong sales report will "probably not … at least, not yet" hit Fed policy. At the same time the retail report drops, the Labor Department will issue its weekly reading on initial unemployment claims.

Persons: Dow Jones, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Hurricanes Helene, Milton Organizations: Bank of America, Fed, Labor Department, Hurricanes, Boeing Locations: Michigan

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The real question isn’t the Fed’s first cut, but where it goes after
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

CNBC's Sarah Min breaks down how a rate cut could affect the S&P 500 . Welcome to U.S. rate cut week! Furthermore, jumbo hikes of 75 basis points were enacted between June 2022 to November 2022. But given that the rate cut has been so clearly telegraphed by the Fed, it's hard to imagine it not happening. This cut might not be big in terms of basis points, but it will be big in what it signals to markets.

Persons: It's, Sarah Min, Donald Trump, Rafael Barros, Cat Stevens, Aditya Bhave, CNBC's Pia Singh, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Republican, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Secret Service, U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of America U.S Locations: Washington , DC, Florida, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: After the Fed’s first cut, where to next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. CNBC's Sarah Min breaks down how a rate cut could affect the S&P 500 . Welcome to U.S. rate cut week! But given that the rate cut has been so clearly telegraphed by the Fed, it's hard to imagine it not happening. This cut might not be big in terms of basis points, but it will be big in what it signals to markets.

Persons: It's, Sarah Min, Biden, Donald Trump, Rafael Barros, Cat Stevens, Aditya Bhave, CNBC's Pia Singh, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Discount, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Republican, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Secret Service, U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of America U.S Locations: Washington , DC, Florida, U.S

☆ The Fed coin flip: Traders still divided on how deep next week’s cut will be
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street is growing more divided on how much the Federal Reserve will move interest rates next week. In fact, the market's mixed outlook ahead of the central bank decision is more unsettled than any time since the Fed started pushing borrowing costs higher in early 2022. Investors are certain that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates next week from their current 5.25% to 5.50% range, but a sense of uncertainty lingers. We do not anticipate any dissents" from voting members of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee next week, Bank of America's Bhave added. "So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision."

Persons: Henry Allen, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, America's Bhave Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Committee, Bank, America's

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 goes for 5-day win streak as markets look ahead to next week's Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Friday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 aimed for a five-day win streak. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut announcement next week. The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2019, with about even odds for a 25- or 50-basis point cut. Based on probabilities from the CME's FedWatch Tool, there's a 49%/51% split on whether the Fed will deliver a 50-basis point or 25-basis point interest rate cut, respectively. AdvertisementNext week's expected interest rate cut from the Fed will represent the first time the central bank has lowered rates since 2019.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, it's, Aditya Bhave Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: Here's

☆ Why this Wells Fargo strategist expects a full percentage rate cut by end of 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhy this Wells Fargo strategist expects a full percentage rate cut by end of 2024Aditya Bhave, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Securities, and Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment, join CNBC's "The Exchange" to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decisions and more.

Persons: Wells, Aditya Bhave, Paul Christopher Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Federal Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bps for the next five meetings, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect the Fed to cut rates by 25bps for the next five meetings, says BofA's Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Securities, and Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment, join CNBC's "The Exchange" to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decisions.

Persons: 25bps, BofA's Aditya Bhave Aditya Bhave, Paul Christopher Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Federal Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Bhave: Fed will start cutting rates in December, even if June CPI meets estimates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBhave: Fed will start cutting rates in December, even if June CPI meets estimatesAditya Bhave, Senior U.S. Economist at Bank of America, discusses his expectations for June CPI.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Organizations: Senior U.S, Economist, Bank of America, CPI

☆ Investors shouldn't rule out possible rate hike, says Michael Landsberg
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors shouldn't rule out possible rate hike, says Michael LandsbergMichael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth CIO; Aditya Bhave, Bank of America Securities senior U.S. economist; and CNBC Steve’s Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential for Fed policy moves, macro data, and more.

Persons: Michael Landsberg Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Aditya Bhave, CNBC Steve’s Liesman Organizations: Bank of America Securities, CNBC Steve’s Locations: Landsberg

☆ For US renters, the chance of owning a home is going from bad to worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The American dream of homeownership is looking more like a nightmare. With inflation heating up again, the Federal Reserve is in no position to consider lowering interest rates at its upcoming meetings. That’s according to a New York Fed survey gauging consumers’ expectations of the housing market, released Monday. Consumers are gearing up for even bigger increases compared to the expected rise in mortgage rates over the next year, the New York Fed survey found. The issue of rent affordability is particularly pronounced in New York City, where housing costs have always been notoriously high compared to other parts of the country, absent a brief respite during the pandemic.

Persons: That’s, Kenny Lee, Aditya Bhave, Neel Kashkari, Bhave, ” Bhave, “, Perdue “, ”, Read, TikTok, Joe Biden, Brian Fung, Bytedance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, New, Fed, Zillow, Bank of America, CNN, Minneapolis, Bloomberg, United States Department of Labor, Seaboard Triumph Foods, Perdue, Labor Department, Seaboard, Labor, Packers Sanitation Services, Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit Locations: New York, New York City, Fayette, DOL, Sioux City , Iowa, Accomac , Virginia, China

☆ PPI is important because components feed into PCE, says Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPPI is important because components feed into PCE, says Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Senior U.S. Economist at Bank of America, discusses key inflation data this week.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Aditya Bhave Organizations: PPI, Senior U.S, Economist, Bank of America

☆ Don’t read too much into those Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending totals
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“It shows the psychological mind frame of consumers,” said Mickey Chadha, vice president of corporate finance at Moody’s Investors Services, referring to holiday spending data. This year, dollar sales growth for the holidays in the United States is forecast to slow to 3.3% from 6% last year. It means the spending growth it reported was “driven by net-new demand, not simply higher prices,” Adobe said. The experts CNN spoke to were all in agreement: Holiday spending data — no matter how good or bad — doesn’t represent the state of the entire US economy. A report she coauthored with Chadha predicts holiday sales will grow “a fairly modest 1% to 3%” this year.

Persons: ”, Mickey Chadha, Aditya Bhave, David Paul Morris, That’s, Tamara Charm, Charm, ” Adobe, Chedly Louis, Chadha, Michael Zdinak, he’s, Bhave, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Services, Adobe Analytics, Adobe, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Getty, Consumer, Consumers, McKinsey, CNN, Moody’s Investors Locations: New York, United States, That’s

“I have been consistently surprised at the resilience of consumer spending,” Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s board, said in a speech this month. “The acceleration of consumer spending on experiences (has) propelled us towards another outstanding quarter,” said CEO Jason Liberty. Wealthier households, in particular, have enjoyed substantial growth in home values and stock portfolios, which are likely juicing their spending. Spending on the bank's credit and debit cards by households with incomes below $50,000 has risen faster than spending by higher-earning clients. “Consumer spending across all segments from high to low has remained stable since March."

Persons: —, they've, ” Christopher Waller, ”, Jason Liberty, “, Tim Duy, they're, Julia Pollak, Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley, Small, Bret Csencsitz, Aditya Bhave, Valerie Zaffina, Zaffina, Bhave, Biden, Christopher Suh, ___ Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Federal Reserve, Royal Caribbean Group, Travelers, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Gotham, Bank of America, Visa Locations: U.S, New York City, COVID, Ramsey , New Jersey, I’m, Washington, New York

☆ A credit card Christmas: Taking on shopping debt carries more risk this holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve's string of rate hikes. Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs. Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.

Persons: Alexi Rosenfeld, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Taylor Swift, Wall, Adrian Mitchell, Mitchell, Doug McMillon, Tim Quinlan, Wells, Quinlan Organizations: Getty, Shoppers, Bank of America, Consumers, Walmart, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Wells Fargo

☆ We expect Q4 to be meaningfully softer than Q3, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect Q4 to be meaningfully softer than Q3, says BofA's Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the bond market's outlook, the impact of broadly strong balance sheets on consumer spending, and more.

Persons: BofA's Aditya Bhave Aditya Bhave Organizations: Bank of America

☆ Today’s CPI data is concerning for the Fed, but it is not a backbreaker: BofA Securities’ Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday’s CPI data is concerning for the Fed, but it is not a backbreaker: BofA Securities’ BhaveAditya Bhave, BofA Securities U.S. senior economist, joins ‘Fast Money’ traders to discuss core inflation and headline inflation numbers from CPI.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Organizations: BofA Securities

☆ The market has shaken off government shutdowns in the past. Here's what Wall Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan

☆ The Fed would be 'flying blind' on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Could the Fed hike in December instead? Labor's consumer price index is a widely followed measure by the public and also figures into Fed calculations. While they aren't the only inflation gauges central bank officials use, not having them around in November would complicate the rate decision. Bank of America, though, expects the Fed to approve one more hike, which would take its key borrowing rate to a target range of 5.5%-5.75%. Correction: Another hike by the Fed would take its key borrowing rate to a target range of 5.5%-5.75%.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, Bhave, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Labor, Commerce, Bank of America U.S, Fed

☆ Powell's tone was hawkish, but the speech's content was not: PNC's Gus Faucher
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's tone was hawkish, but the speech's content was not: PNC's Gus FaucherGus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, and Aditya Bhave, US senior economist at Bank of America, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the tone of Powell's comments, monetary policy going forward, and labor policy dynamics.

Persons: Gus Faucher Gus Faucher, Aditya Bhave Organizations: PNC, Bank of America

☆ Student loans will only be a modest headwind to consumers, says BofA's Aditya Bhave
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStudent loans will only be a modest headwind to consumers, says BofA's Aditya BhaveTerry Lundgren, TJL Advisors CEO, and Aditya Bhave, Aditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss retail sales, earnings, and the state of the consumer.

Persons: BofA's Aditya Bhave Terry Lundgren, Aditya Bhave Organizations: TJL, Bank of America

That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy

☆ Hollywood is helping boost the economy as fans flock to 'Barbie,' 'Oppenheimer,' and Taylor Swift's Eras Tour
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Taylor Swift's Eras Tour and "Barbenheimer" have been key drivers of consumer spending this year. "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" has also boosted theaters that are still struggling post-pandemic. "'Barbenheimer' likely drove the continued surge in year-on-year entertainment spending growth," analysts Shruti Mishra and Aditya Bhave wrote in a note. Nintendo/Universal"The Super Mario Bros. Bringing some more optimism to global economies is "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" — an animated adaptation of the Nintendo video game.

Persons: Taylor, Mario, quieten, hasn't, Swift, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Taylor Swift, Taylor Hill, Jamie Cox, Covid, Cox, Shruti Mishra, Aditya Bhave, Greta Gerwig's, Zelda Organizations: Mario Bros, Service, Hollywood, Federal Reserve, Institute, Harris Financial Group, Bank of America, AMC, Nintendo Locations: Wall, Silicon, Cincinnati , Ohio, what's, Philadelphia

☆ Fed would accept a mild recession if it brings down inflation, BofA Securities says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed would accept a mild recession if it brings down inflation, BofA Securities saysBank of America Securities' Aditya Bhave also discussed the tight labor market and its "chicken and egg" dynamic with the consumer.

Persons: Aditya Bhave Organizations: BofA Securities, Bank of America Securities

☆ As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.

Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York

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