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June retail inflation rose to 4.81%, higher than both the revised 4.31% for the previous month and the 4.58% expected in a Reuters poll of 55 economists. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, rose to 4.49% against a revised 2.96% in May. Reuters GraphicsErratic and incessant rainfall in northern India could push vegetable prices higher in the coming months. Prices of vegetables will remain high in July and may push retail inflation to an "uncomfortable 5.3%-5.5%" this month, Nayar added. "We expect the monetary policy committee to see through the short-term spike in food inflation and remain on prolonged pause," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital.

Persons: Aditi Nayar, Nayar, Garima Kapoor, Aftab Ahmed, Vineet, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: NEW DELHI, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Elara, Thomson Locations: India

The central bank said its policy stance remains focused on "withdrawal of accommodation", signalling it could consider further rate hikes if necessary. The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50%. Most analysts had expected one final 25 basis point hike in the RBI's current tightening cycle, which has seen it raise the repo rate by a total 250 bps since May last year. The central bank sees inflation at 5.2% in 2023-24, and GDP growth is seen at 6.5% in the financial year beginning April 1. Reuters GraphicsFinancial stability concerns appear to have prompted the pause in rate hikes, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ India slashes current account deficit in Dec-qtr as trade gap narrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 31 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit shrank more than expected in the October-December quarter on the back of a narrower goods trade deficit alongside robust services exports and remittances, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (INCURA=ECI) was $18.2 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022/23 compared with $22.2 billion last year. The goods trade deficit in the December quarter narrowed to $72.7 billion compared with $78.3 billion in the preceding quarter, the central bank said. The country's balance of payments (INBOP=ECI) recorded a surplus of $11.1 billion compared to a $0.5 billion surplus in the same quarter a year earlier. Reporting by Swati Bhat Additional reporting by Sudipto Ganguly; Editing by Frank Jack DanielOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

☆ Analysis: Fall in India nominal GDP growth in FY24 to challenge fiscal math
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At least four leading economists expect nominal GDP growth to come in between 8% and 11% as inflation slows and real GDP growth eases from an estimated 7% this year, when pandemic-related distortions and pent-up demand pushed up growth rates. Das said he expects nominal GDP growth of 8%-9% in FY24, with inflation and real GDP growth seen declining. A growth of 8-9% would bring that number close to the 7.6% nominal growth seen in 2019/20, before the Covid crisis hit. State Bank of India and rating agency ICRA estimate the nominal GDP growth at around 10% for next financial year. "Higher-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth,(will help) to keep fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 6.4%, with downside risks," it said.

The government uses the estimates as a basis for its growth and fiscal projections for the next budget due on Feb. 1. Since September, economists have been cutting their 2022/23 growth projections to around 7% due to slowing exports and risks of high inflation crimping purchasing power. India's nominal growth, which includes inflation, is projected to be at 15.4% for 2022/23, up from an earlier 11.1% estimate. "The nominal GDP growth is higher, implying that the government's fiscal deficit target will be achieved," said Sabnavis. "Buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period," Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA.

☆ India festival spending booms despite inflation worries, global slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The sales would include nearly $15.2 billion offline sales, compared to about $8.5 billion in 2019, according to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). read moreBut economists said the sense in India was that inflation has peaked while economic activity was picking up. The bump in consumer demand is expected to support economic growth of around 6.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2023, the highest among the world's major economies. Credit demand increases Credit demand increasesThe retail boom is also a boon for the government - goods and services tax collections, a barometer of consumer demand, rose 26% year-on-year in September, data showed. "After two consecutive downbeat festive seasons, consumer sentiment and spending appear to have rebounded this year... which may boost economic growth in the current quarter, but may not sustain thereafter."

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