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Search resuls for: "Adam Scaife"


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LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday. But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5C is an El Niño weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures. The El Niño "will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation system is composed of El Nino and La Nina — two opposite states of fluctuation in the Earth's climate system, which can have significant consequences on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies across the world. An El Nino event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The warmest year ever recorded, 2016, started off with a powerful El Nino that helped to boost global temperatures. This lagged effect is why forecasters believe 2024 could be the first year that humanity surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius. Weather conditions are likely to be drier than average in Indonesia during an El Nino event as rainfall moves out to the Pacific Ocean.
Serviciul meteorologic britanic, Met Office, estimează că temperatura medie globală a aerului în anul 2021 va fi cu 0,91-1,15 grade Celsius (cu o estimare centrală de 1,03 ° C) mai mare, peste media perioadei preindustriale (1850-1900). Seria celor mai calzi ani a început în 2015, primul an când temperatura globală a aerului a depășit cu 1 grad Celsius perioada preindustrială (1850-1900). Dr. Doug Smith, unul dintre experții climatologi Met Office, a adăugat: „Prognoza temperaturii medii globale a aerului pentru 2021 este o valoare medie pe toată planeta. Prognoza sugerează că 2021 va fi mult mai cald decât 1998 - anul precedat de evenimentul El Niño din 1997/98. Datele din ianuarie-octombrie 2020 arată că temperatura medie globală este cu 1,17 ± 0,11° C peste nivelurile perioadei preindustriale, scrie digi24.
Persons: Dr . Nick Dunstone, Dr . Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith Organizations: Office, de Meteorologie Locations: Niña, Pacificul, Arctica
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