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☆ U.S.-China relations: 'No question' Trump will intensify tariffs, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S.-China relations: 'No question' Trump will intensify tariffs, economist saysAdam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the Trump administration is likely to "reinterpret" President Joe Biden's industrial policy without rolling it back.

Persons: Adam Posen, Trump, Joe Biden's Organizations: U.S, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China

☆ Trump's mass deportation plans could wreak havoc on the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But think-tank economists warned Business Insider that former President Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation could open that door right back up. Beyond posing significant humanitarian concerns, economists worry Trump's proposed mass deportation would be hugely inflationary, partly due to the basic calculations of supply and demand. Both he and Edelberg said a sudden mass deportation would upend the labor supply and, in turn, the ability to make goods. McKibbin has researched the impact of mass deportation and said it would lead to a combination of lower production and higher costs, particularly in the agriculture and construction sectors. Add on the uncertainty that mass deportation would bring, and a chilling effect among investors seems plausible.

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump's, Wendy Edelberg, Warwick McKibbin, Edelberg, Adam Posen, Posen, McKibbin, Josh Bivens Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Trump, Business, Brookings Institution, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Bloomberg TV, Economic Policy Institute, Democratic

☆ Trump's trade and immigration policies are an 'elixir for stagflation' that could tip the US into recession, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewDonald Trump's pledge to raise trade barriers and deport immigrants could be policy shocks that trigger a recession, JPMorgan's David Kelly told Bloomberg TV. On trade, Trump has announced plans for a universal 10% duty on all imports to the US, and has separately touted higher tariffs as a replacement for some income taxes. As for immigration, the Republican candidate has promised to carry out the largest deportation program in US history. "If you took his word on immigration, the economy would come to a halt because of deportation of unregistered immigrants or illegal immigrants."

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, JPMorgan's David Kelly, Trump, he's, you've, Kelly, Larry Summers, Adam Posen, that's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Republican, Peterson Institute, Peterson

☆ The first US presidential debate will have some noticeable differences
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the first — and somewhat unconventional — US presidential debate happening tonight . Evan Vucci/AP images, Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP images, Tyler Le/BIIt didn't come easy, and it won't feel quite the same, but we're getting our first US presidential debate tonight. AdvertisementBut don't be surprised by some noticeable differences from what you've come to expect when two presidential candidates face off. And this marks the first presidential debate the platform navigates under the Elon Musk regime. In other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayRFK Jr., who did not qualify for the CNN presidential debate, will answer debate questions via livestream during his campaign's counter-programming.

Persons: —, Evan Vucci, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Tyler Le, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, it's, Insider's Brent D, Griffiths, Biden, Brent, Chris Szagola, Julien de Rosa, Alice Tecotzky, Cros, Sunny Verghese, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Adam Posen, Posen, Bord, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Mustafa Suleyman, Alberto Miranda, they're, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Trump, Biden, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Elon, Getty, Peterson, BI, NFL, RFK Jr Locations: Tesla . Texas, New York, London

☆ Trump's pledge to deport the most US workers in history could trigger recession and an inflation spike, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's vows to carry out a major deportation campaign is a stagflationary threat, Adam Posen told Bloomberg TV. Adding to inflation risk are also Trump's trade proposals, as he pledges to lift tariffs. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDonald Trump's vow to initiate the country's biggest deportation campaign is a massive stagflationary hazard, risking an economic downturn amid even tighter monetary policy, one think-tank economist said. At the same time, he's also pledged to deport all undocumented workers from the US, which total 7.5 million people, Posen said.

Persons: Trump's, Adam Posen, —, Donald Trump's, Trump, he's Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Service, Republican, Peterson, Business Locations: Posen

☆ Why Trump Is Right About Tariffs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Oren Cass | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

President Donald Trump at a Whirlpool manufacturing facility in Ohio, Aug. 2020. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty ImagesEconomists have reacted poorly to Donald Trump’s recent proposal for a 10% tariff on all imports. After all, tax revenue is necessary to provide public services, and tariffs have long proved an effective way to collect it. In 1789, the first law in the first Congress—advocated by Alexander Hamilton, introduced by James Madison and signed by George Washington on the Fourth of July—established a tariff not unlike Trump’s. For much of the nation’s history, while growing from colonial backwater to continent-spanning industrial colossus, the U.S. imposed some of the world’s highest tariffs, which were the primary means of funding the federal government.

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Donald Trump’s, Adam Posen, Michael Strain, —, Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, George Washington Organizations: Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, American Enterprise Institute Locations: Ohio, U.S

☆ Exodus of capital from China signals 'seismic' change in global flows as investors grow wary of autocratic regimes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's capital exodus is among the worst seen by emerging markets, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. That's as global investors have grown wary of autocratic regimes, he tweeted on Sunday. "The change in global capital flows is seismic. "But China has now seen consistent and large outflows for the past 18 months, as investors grow wary of autocracies." Global markets look at China in a new light," Brooks said in a separate X post.

Persons: Robin Brooks, Brooks, Ukraine that's, Adam Posen Organizations: IIF, Service, Institute of International Finance, hemorrhaging, CSI, Administration of Foreign Exchange, EPFR, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Foreign Affairs Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, outflows

The U.S. economy has avoided a threatened banking crisis and financial markets have not only aligned with the Federal Reserve's tight-credit policies but of late even helped the process by bidding up market interest rates. "I think Powell’s main effort is going to be explaining to what degree you want to hold (interest rates) higher for longer in the current outlook." Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate currently expect the Fed to begin reducing the policy rate next year from the current level set between 5.25% and 5.5%. Fed officials in fact have begun discussing the possibility of rate cuts down the road, at least in the context of steadily falling inflation. If inflation does decline as expected, Fed officials including Powell have suggested rate reductions might be appropriate to maintain a roughly constant inflation-adjusted "real rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jim Urquhart, JACKSON, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, who've, isn't, Adam Posen, William English, Donald Kohn, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Kansas, Fed, Northern Trust, Bank of England's, Committee, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Yale School of Management, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Teton, Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Washington

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

☆ Why China’s Economy Is Stumbling - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Decades of miraculous growth had transformed a desperately poor nation into an economic superpower, with a gross domestic product that by some measures was larger than America’s. China’s aggressive response to Covid was widely praised; its Belt and Road Initiative, a huge program of infrastructure investments around the world, was clearly a bid for global influence, maybe even supremacy. But now China is stumbling. Its “zero Covid” policy of locking cities down at the first indication of an outbreak proved untenable, but abandoning the policy hasn’t produced the expected economic surge. Some analysts attribute China’s stumble to policies of its current leadership.

Persons: Covid, Adam Posen Organizations: Initiative, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Japan, U.S

☆ China has a case of 'economic long COVID' - and won't use the only cure for growth, expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is suffering from "economic long COVID," Adam Posen wrote in Foreign Affairs. Like other authoritarian regimes, China's economic development is following a predictable pattern, he noted. "Low appetite for illiquid investment and low responsiveness to supportive macroeconomic policies: that, in a nutshell, is economic long COVID," he wrote. Despite the West's growing tensions with Beijing, China's economic woes aren't necessarily good news for its rivals either, Posen said. "When another global recession hits, China's growth will not help revive demand abroad as it did last time.

Persons: Adam Posen, Peterson, —, Goldman Sachs, It's, Xi, COVID, Posen, there's Organizations: Foreign Affairs, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bank of America, Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, China's Communist Party Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Posen

☆ International Discord Undercuts Global Growth, Worsens Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Jon Hilsenrath | Austen Hufford | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The global economy is once again under strain, but this time without the international cooperation that helped resolve previous post-Cold War crises. Instead, many of the world’s biggest powers are now intent on undermining one another, with unsettling economic implications. “There is a level of weaponizing the economy that we have not seen for, perhaps, decades,” said Adam Posen , president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “You’ve got G-20 economies actively trying to harm other G-20 economies. This is a different world.”

☆ UK's Kwarteng heads for Washington under pressure from IMF
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Sept. 23, Kwarteng made his first fiscal announcement including a controversial plan to scrap Britain's top income tax rate for the highest earners, part of a package of measures he said would speed up sluggish economic growth. Last week, a rebellion within the ruling Conservative Party forced Kwarteng and Truss to drop the idea of scrapping the 45% top rate of tax. "If Kwarteng decides to lecture back, let alone publicly dissent from the G7 consensus, then things will go very badly for him," Posen, a former BoE rate-setter, said. The BoE said on Monday it was taking further steps to ensure the emergency bond-buying scheme concludes smoothly on Friday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAdditional reporting by Howard Schneider in Washington Writing by William Schomberg Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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