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☆ Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed Survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The survey shows 84% of the 27 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed cutting by a quarter percentage point, with 16% seeing a half-point decrease. That compares with 65% probability of a half-point cut now priced into fed futures markets. "That forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft landing." (One basis point equals 0.01%)Soft landing expectedThe major difference could be that survey respondents appear less worried about the economy overall than futures markets, and more convinced the Fed has time to enact gradual rate cuts. Seventy-four percent said the September rate cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing, with just 15% saying it's too late.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, John Donaldson, Barry Knapp, it's, Michael Englund, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Haverford Trust Co, Ironsides, Fed

☆ 'Let your winners ride': Stocks will climb in 2024 as U.S. skirts a recession, CFRA's Stovall says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-11 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks will continue to rise as the U.S. skirts a recession in 2024, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. "By the end of 2024, CFRA sees the S & P 500 challenging the 5,000 level," Stovall wrote in a Friday note. "But since large, round numbers traditionally act like rusty doors, requiring several attempts before finally swinging open, our year-end target for the S & P 500 is 4,940." .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has gained about 21% from the start of 2023. Stovall's forecast implies about 7% upside for the S & P 500 to the end of 2024.

Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Stovall, Stocks, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Reserve, Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ Ripple effect seen on markets globally from Middle East conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Israeli tanks are seen in the aftermath of a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in Kibbutz Beeri in southern Israel, October 14, 2023. Israel was preparing on Saturday to launch a ground assault in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, after telling Palestinians living in the territory to flee south. "If it looks like a broadening conflict, oil prices will rise further," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. "The bigger risk to the oil market is that this conflict draws in neighboring countries," said CSIS' Cahill. Rising oil prices are unlikely to have a significant impact on U.S. gas prices or consumer spending, analysts noted.

Persons: Violeta Santos Moura, Ben Cahill, Michael Englund, Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, Cahill, " Englund, Matt Tracy, Megan Davies, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Israeli, Lebanese, Energy Security, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, Economics, Economic Outlook Group, Chevron, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Kibbutz Beeri, Israel, safehavens, Boulder , Colorado, Princeton , New Jersey, U.S, Egypt

Treasury yields later receded on a cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report that helped stocks on Wall Street rebound from Tuesday's sharp sell-off. "The market was so over-sold that it was looking for a catalyst to rally on and found it in ADP." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.884%, a fresh 16-year high, while 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAustralian, Canadian and British government bond yields have also surged this week. Gold prices crept lower for the eighth consecutive session as elevated Treasury yields amid expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer weighed on investor sentiment.

Persons: Kim Rupert, Rupert, Rhys Williams, Brendan McDermid, Kit Juckes, Brent, Herbert Lash, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, ADP, Management, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights Australian, U.S ., Thomson Locations: San Francisco, Bryn Mawr , Pennsylvania, U.S, New York City, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Russia, London, Sydney

☆ Dollar drops on jobs data, yen rises from 10-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese yen also gained, after earlier falling to a 10-month low. The dollar briefly reached an almost 10-month high against the Japanese yen earlier on Tuesday, before dropping on the jobs data. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier among global central banks with its loose monetary policy, even as it slowly shifts away from yield curve control. “It is moving away from excessively loose monetary policy, but it’s doing so at a very slow and measured pace,” Rai said. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, “ It’s, Charu, Kazuo Ueda, Lee Hardman, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Action Economics, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo, Jackson, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Japan, London

☆ US dollar retreats from five-week high as debt ceiling stalemate weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 102.40. Earlier in the session, the dollar touched a five-week high of 102.75. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth, as well as more hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.3% at 136.06, while sterling was 0.7% higher at $1.2527, rebounding after last week's 1.5% fall. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when the dollar hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.

The greenback took an early dive after data showed the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index plunged to -31.8 this month from a reading of 10.8 in April. "The things that have weighed on the dollar recently have not gone away, such as the debt ceiling, even though there has been some progress made." In late morning trading the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 102.48. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when it hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.

☆ Tens of thousands likely jobless after Hurricane Ian, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Martha C. White For Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Although the damage is still being tallied, early estimates indicate that Ian could be the most costly hurricane to make landfall in Florida. In the short term, a spike in jobless claims is almost inevitable, economists say: “Hurricane Harvey in Texas prompted a rise of about 50,000 in August of 2017,” noted Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. A view of the destroyed road between Florida's Matlacha and Pine Island after Hurricane Ian. “Katrina was a much more damaging storm, and impacted Louisiana, which is much less affluent than Florida,” Zandi said. A powerboat lies atop a pile of debris two days after the passage of Hurricane Ian, in Fort Myers, Florida.

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