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Don't be surprised if economic data coming out over the next week kicks off a rally into the end of the year and potentially 2023, according to Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management's senior portfolio manager. The key period of data releases begins Friday with the producer price index, followed by November's consumer price index and another likely rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. "The last time those were released they all led to rallies in the stock market because we had better inflation prints," he said. Like many investors, Slimmon expects a downturn ahead, given the inverted yield curve, but does not anticipate the "big earnings collapse," or downturn, many people are predicting in the first quarter. This is in part due to the fact that many consumers have beefed up savings in recent years given the proximity of the most recent recession.
Aerial view of containers sitting stacked at the Qinzhou Port on August 15, 2022 in Qinzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China. Shares in the Asia-Pacific slipped on Wednesday after major U.S. indexes fell more than 1% each overnight as recession concerns weigh on markets. China's November trade data is predicted to show a sharp drop in exports and imports, according a Reuters poll. The Nikkei 225 in Japan was down 0.59% in early trade and the Topix also fell 0.44%. South Korea's Kospi shed 0.29%, and the Kosdaq was 0.58% lower.
Australia's central bank is expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.1% on Tuesday, according to economists polled by Reuters. That would be the Reserve Bank of Australia's eighth hike this year, and the third consecutive hike of 25 basis points since October. In a statement following its November meeting, the RBA said "the full effect" of the series of cash rate hikes lie ahead. Meanwhile, Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, said there's potential for a pause in rate hikes further ahead. "Some measures of inflation expectations are moving lower, and the monthly inflation print suggests inflation has peaked."
Citizens dine at a restaurant on December 1, 2022 in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province of China. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were poised to trade mixed on Monday ahead of the results of the Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index, a private survey on China's services activity. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 27,635 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 27,700. That compared against the Nikkei 225's last close at 27,777.90. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.31%.
The Chinese government is unlikely to introduce new regulations for the internet tech sector and there could be more support going forward, according to Jonathan Krane of KraneShares. "I do not foresee much regulation going forward." He added that the Chinese tech industry makes up a big portion of the economy. "It's a very important sector, it's the consumer of China — so I think you're gonna see a lot of support around the sector going forward as China reopens." Chinese tech stocks have had some difficult years following the regulatory crackdown and amid the ongoing Covid restrictions, though the sector has recovered slightly on reopening hopes.
Workers work on a speaker production line at Luyang Electronics Co LTD in Fuyang City, Anhui Province, China, Oct 31, 2022. Asia-Pacific shares fell on Wednesday ahead of the release of data on China's November factory activity, in which analysts are expecting to see a contraction for the second time in a row. The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 0.52% and Topix slipped 0.42%. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.14% lower. Japan's Fast Retailing and electric-vehicle maker Xpeng are set to report earnings, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be delivering a speech at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday.
I thought I managed to beat the tourist crowds on my recent trip to Japan. Visitors gather on a terrace near the Kiyomizu-dera to watch the sunset and autumn leaves in Kyoto, Japan. In the months before those rules were lifted on Oct. 11, there were fewer traffic jams and queues, said Aw. Tokudaw's Aw said bookings with her company remain strong for the year-end period, at around 85% of pre-Covid levels. Travel, however, told CNBC Travel that its customers from Singapore have made bookings all the way through to April.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Monday that the Fed should continue to raise its benchmark interest rate in the coming months and that the market may be underestimating the chance that the Fed has to get more aggressive. "We're going to have to continue pursue our interest rate increases into 2023, and there's some risk that we've have to go even higher than [5%]," Bullard said at a Barron's Live webinar. Bullard made waves in financial markets earlier this month when he said the Fed's hikes have had "only limited effects" on inflation so far and that the benchmark interest rate may need to rise to between 5% and 7%. "I think we'll probably have to stay there all through 2023 and into 2024, given the historical behavior of core PCE inflation or Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation. But they probably won't come down quite as fast as markets would like and probably the Fed would like," Bullard said.
Police officers block off a street in Shanghai in the area where protests against China's zero-Covid policy took place the night before following a deadly fire in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang region. (Photo by HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)Asia-Pacific shares are set to trade lower on Monday amid unrest in China over its continued zero-Covid policy and a growing number of cases reported in the nation. That's slightly lower compared against the Nikkei 225's last close at 28,283.03. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.39%, and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar weakened to $0.6718. Retail sales are also due out in Australia later Monday.
European markets are heading for a lower open on Monday as investors keep a close eye on unrest in China as protests against strict Covid measures and lockdowns erupted over the weekend. The unrest came as infections surged, prompting more local Covid controls, while a central government policy change earlier this month had raised hopes of a gradual easing. Youth unemployment has neared 20%. Hong Kong stocks led losses in a negative Asia-Pacific session on Monday amid the unrest in China over its continued zero-Covid policy. Oil futures hovered around new 2022 lows as demand concerns over the world's second-largest consumer of oil weighed on prices.
Asia-Pacific markets mixed as investors weigh risks
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
People walk past the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) on October 01, 2020 in Tokyo, Japan. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were set to rise on Tuesday as investors weigh risks. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5% ahead of central bank governor Philip Lowe's speech at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia. The Kospi and the Kosdaq in South Korea each fell 0.34%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was about flat.
A man looks at his smartphone as he walks past the People's Bank of China building on May 20, 2022 in Beijing. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were set to rise on Monday as analysts expect China's central bank to keep its benchmark lending rates, or loan prime rates, on hold, according to a Reuters poll. The Nikkei futures contract in Chicago was at 27,930 while its counterpart in Osaka was at 27,970. That compared against the Nikkei 225's last close at 27,899.77. Over the weekend, Malaysia's election produced a hung parliament, and parties are trying to win support from other blocs to form the government.
Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed on Wednesday as world leaders gather in Bali, Indonesia for a second day of the Group of 20 summit. Investors will be closely watching for more details after Polish authorities said a Russian-made missile killed two citizens and an investigation is underway. The Nikkei 225 and the Topix in Japan were about flat. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was slightly below the flatline. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the benchmark interest rate to be raised by 50 basis points to 5.25%.
A man walks past the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were little changed on Tuesday ahead of a slew of economic data from China, and following the meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Nikkei 225 in Japan was slightly lower. Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, official data showed. China is set to report industrial production and retail sales data.
Asia-Pacific markets were set to trade mixed on Monday after closing the previous week with a big rally as U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected and China announced some easing of its Covid measures. The Hang Seng index saw the best day since March 16. Despite the number of Covid cases in China surging last week, markets latched onto the "symbolism of the movement, however small," referring to the changes, according to Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank.
A man looks at an electronic board displaying stock information at the Australian Securities Exchange, operated by ASX Ltd. on March 16, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Shares in the Asia-Pacific dropped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled further hikes ahead after raising rates by 75 basis points as expected, saying it was "premature" to talk about pausing the tightening cycle. "We still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected," he said. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was last down 2.23%. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped around 1%.
Pedestrians cross a road in front of an electronic quotation board displaying the numbers of company stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on May 13, 2021. Shares in the Asia-Pacific poised for a mixed session on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. The Bank of Japan is expected to release its September meeting minutes and Fast Retailing is set to report sales for Uniqlo in Japan. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.31% higher. South Korea's inflation inched higher to 5.7% in October, higher than 5.6% forecasted by analysts in a Reuters poll.
China previously "sailed on" economically while other countries struggled, but the world's second largest economy may have a difficult path ahead, according to one strategist. "China has reached that level of its development where a lot of emerging markets typically find the going getting tougher," said Mark Jolley of CCB International Securities. He pointed to the trend of deglobalization, friction between the U.S. and China as well as the weak global economy. "On both sides of the Pacific we hear a lot of wishful thinking that decoupling will promote rather than hurt domestic growth. We disagree," Ethan Harris wrote in a BofA Global Research note published Friday.
Office employees walk in front of the Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney on September 4, 2018. Shares in the Asia-Pacific set to inch higher on Tuesday ahead of Australia's central bank decision and the results of a private survey on Chinese factory activity. The Fed's meeting also begins on Tuesday stateside. The Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 0.15% while the Topix also rose 0.23%.The Kospi in South Korea also rose 0.28%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was fractionally lower as analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, according a Reuters poll.
Pedestrians cross a street in front of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, operated by Japan Exchange Group, in Tokyo, Japan. Shares in the Asia-Pacific are set to rise on Monday ahead of China's factory activity data that's slated to be released, and as markets look ahead to the U.S. Fed meeting later this week. On Friday in the U.S., major stock indexes jumped 2% each on optimism that inflation may be slowing. Later this week, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting and announce its interest rate decision. Several countries will report inflation data this week.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, April 25, 2022. Shares in the Asia-Pacific fell ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and a slew of companies in the region reporting earnings. The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 0.89% in early trade, while the Topix dipped 0.51%. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates at ultra-low levels, according to forecasts in a Reuters poll. Some Chinese airlines listed in Hong Kong will report earnings, along with electric vehicle maker BYD.
The rising cost of borrowing is unlikely to have a major impact on Singapore's property market, analysts told CNBC. Ore Huiying | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesSINGAPORE — The rising cost of borrowing is unlikely to have a major impact on Singapore's property market, analysts told CNBC. Singapore's real estate market is backed by wealth, according to Christine Li, head of Asia-Pacific research at Knight Frank. Demand driversHowever, it doesn't mean the residential property market ignores rising rates and looming risks, said Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills. "However, past trends indicate that our property market is highly resilient and usually rebounds within six months of a cooling measure," she said.
Shoppers at the shopping street in Hongdae district in Seoul, South Korea, on Saturday, July 2, 2022. Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed Thursday as investors digest economic data in the region. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.51% higher. South Korea's third-quarter GDP grew 0.3% from the previous quarter, according to official advance data – the slowest growth since the third quarter of 2021. China is due to report industrial profits for September and the Bank of Japan begins its two-day meeting on monetary policy Thursday.
Shares in the Asia-Pacific rose Wednesday as sentiment overnight improved over the Fed potentially turning less aggressive. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.34% ahead of the report before trading almost flat. The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.87% in early trade, and the Topix gained 0.79%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked marginally higher. In corporate news, Standard Chartered, Ping An , and SK Hynix are among the companies slated to report earnings Wednesday.
A man walks past the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. (JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. Stocks in the Asia-Pacific rose in early trade Tuesday after Wall Street's second straight positive session. South Korea's Kospi was just above the flatline, while the Kosdaq gained 0.44%. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.14%. Singapore is due to release inflation data on Tuesday, while HSBC is reporting earnings.
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