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What's - 1 Schroders - 1 Johanna Kyrklund - 1 hasn't - 1 Kyrklund - 1 Chris Iggo - 1 Mike Dolan - 1
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☆ Column: US outperformance and the element of surprise
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Mike Dolan | Thomson Reuters | Mike Dolan Is Reuters Editor-At-Large For Finance | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The economic picture may not have to change much for the surprise element to disappear for markets - underlining the significance of this summer's sometimes grudging admissions of investment strategy missteps. SURPRISE, SURPRISEExceptional U.S. economic surprisesU.S. surprise gaps the widest in decades, excluding pandemicAlong with market moves themselves and skewed positioning monitors, the simplest take on the unpreparedness of investors can be seen in economic surprise indices. The global surprise index is close to zero, suggesting expectations for the world economy in aggregate are actually coming in on cue. And if that happens, it may just suck the oxygen from the stellar equity outperformance over bonds to date. If true, markets may find the going harder without that element of surprise.
Persons: What's, Schroders, Johanna Kyrklund, hasn't, Kyrklund, Chris Iggo, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Graphics, AXA IM Investment, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, China, U.S
☆ Column: Bond bounce beckons
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Mike Dolan | Thomson Reuters | Mike Dolan Is Reuters Editor-At-Large For Finance | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But you have to go back centuries in some cases to get anything nearly as bad as 2022 for 'safer' sovereign bonds. "2023 will be the year of the bond," claimed Chris Iggo, chair of the AXA IM Investment Institute. "Road to recession - bullish bonds and quality credit," was how SocGen entitled their view. And while stock volatility makes forecasters nervy, there's a clear attraction for long-term funds in seeking both the fixed income as well as the lift to bond funds when sub-par price discounts disappear into maturity for most high-quality names. "Long high quality bonds in the U.S. and Europe seems like an obvious strategy for 2023," said hedge fund manager Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ Capital.
☆ Analysis: Top central bankers fear breaking economy if they raise rates too fast
  + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
STUBBORNLY HIGHBut stubbornly high inflation is making central bankers' job incredibly tricky. While there is nothing central bankers can do about present inflation rates, the mere optics of runaway prices made a "pivot" more difficult to justify. This requires an extraordinary balancing act by central bankers: persuading the market that they are serious about bringing down inflation without choking the economy. "The Fed needs to open a path towards smaller interest rate hikes without sounding too dovish," Christian Scherrmann, U.S. economist at DWS, said. The change of tone was minimal but it was enough for investors to start pricing in smaller hikes further down the road.
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