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The narrative from Silicon Valley is that the AI train has left the station and any smart investor had better hop on before these products become “superintelligent” and start solving all the world’s problems. Now, some of the leading language models appear to be hitting a wall, according to at least three reports last week. But if we have indeed hit a scaling wall, “it may mean that the the mega-cap technology companies have over-invested” and it’s possible that they could scale back in the near future. That’s the AI optimist/pragmatist view. For a less rosy outlook, I turned to Gary Marcus, NYU professor emeritus and outspoken critic of AI hype.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN — It’s, OpenAI, , that’s, , Orion “, Ilya Sutskever, ” Sutskever, Marc Andreessen, Sam Altman, ” Gil Luria, Davidson, it’s, ” Luria, Gary Marcus, ” Marcus, “ LLMs Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Nvidia, Tech, ” Bloomberg, ” Reuters Locations: New York, GPT
Now, ValueAct has engaged another titan of the market, Meta Platforms, announcing an approximately $1 billion dollar position in the company. With the stock price up about 56% in 2024, ValueAct still sees significant untapped value in Meta. ValueAct has shown at Microsoft and Salesforce that it is very good in helping companies trim fat and build muscle. The AI spending, while concerning to some in the market, can be the muscle that strengthens Meta's core FoA business. It should more than justify Meta's AI spend.
Persons: ValueAct, Mason Morfit, Mark Zuckerberg, OpenAI's GPT, Meta, Martha Stewart Living, Ken Squire Organizations: Reality Labs, Facebook, Microsoft, Meta, RL, Spotify, OpenAI, Adobe, New York Times, Expedia, Century Fox, KKR, 13D Locations: Salesforce
Third Point slashed and dissolved its stakes in some key megacap technology holdings, while opening a fresh position in Tesla during the third quarter. Regulatory filings released Thursday revealed that the Dan Loeb-run hedge fund opened a stake worth roughly $105 million in the electric vehicle behemoth during the period. Tesla shares rallied more than 32% during the period, and they have surged more than 24% in November as investors bet that the company will benefit from CEO Elon Musk's close relationship with President-elect Donald Trump . MSFT YTD mountain Apple shares this year Beyond these key Magnificent Seven players, Loeb liquidated positions in both Verizon Communications and ridesharing giant Uber Technologies . Along with Tesla, Loeb revealed a new position in Brookfield Corp worth about $251 million and fresh stakes in Flutter Entertainment and CVS Health .
Persons: Dan Loeb, Elon Musk's, Donald Trump, Tesla, Loeb Organizations: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Verizon Communications, Uber Technologies, Brookfield Corp, CVS Health, Intercontinental Exchange Locations: China
They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. "Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it'll be a little more of the status quo," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. This could "slow the pace of the AI revolution," he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win "more bullish" for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the former president.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Roger McNamee, Harris, Trump, Trump — Harris, it'll, Jay Woods, McNamee, Vivek Arya, Joe Rogan, Arya, Ed Mills, Raymond James, of America's Brad Sills, Raymond James ' Mills, Dan Ives, Trump's, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Capital's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Elevation Partners, Tech, Antitrust, Google, Justice Department, Trump, Freedom Capital, Bank of America, PHLX Semiconductor, Democrat, Republican, SOX, Devices, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Intel, of America's, Microsoft, Oracle, Wedbush Securities, Investors Locations: stoke, Taiwan, China, Washington
Among the megacap stocks, Alphabet , Amazon and Microsoft grew year-over-year, cloud-based revenue by 35%, 19% and 20%, respectively. But of the five largest companies that have so far reported results — Meta Platforms , Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft — only two finished the week higher. META 5D mountain Meta, 5 days Commentary from some of the tech companies signaled that AI demand remains robust. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy justified stepped up AI spending, saying that investors will be rewarded over the long haul. AMZN 5D mountain Amazon, 5 days Meanwhile, the still enormous spending patterns among megacap technology companies signals no downturn for de facto AI leader Nvidia.
Persons: Gene Munster, Sundar Pichai, Andy Jassy, Ray Wang, Wang, Mark Malek, Constellation's Wang, Satya Nadella's, Eric Clark, Clark Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Constellation Research, Brands, Nvidia
Given the uncertainty surrounding the election next week and some mixed mega-cap technology earnings this week, I want to book some 2024 chip stock profits. I want to hedge my exposure by owning put options in the high-flying VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) . SMH YTD mountain VanEck Semiconductor ETF, YTD Risk can happen fast. Nonetheless, I'm looking to hedge given the big gains this year for the market and tech. This is downside risk mitigation and in the event this trade doesn't pay off, the Big tech exposure I have in my portfolio will continue to create 2024 gains.
Persons: SMH Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Boeing, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Wall Street faces another key litmus test Thursday with results from megacap technology giants Apple and Amazon . For Apple, Wall Street also wants to see its latest iPhone pick up steam, and investors seek more insight into when the company's AI initiative will begin lifting sales. For Apple, Wall Street expects EPS of $1.60 on $94.58 billion in revenue. Amazon's retail business also remains top of mind for Wall Street ahead of the busy holding shopping period. Apple For Apple, Wall Street is eagerly searching for signs of strong demand for its latest iPhone model and updates on its AI strategy.
Persons: Jason Helfstein, Brent Thill, Bank of America's Justin Post, Doug Anmuth, Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan, Ronald Josey, Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, Jefferies, Edison Lee, Samik Chatterjee, Davidson's Gil Luria, Wamsi Mohan, Tim Long, AAPL, Long Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Wall, LSEG, Amazon, StreetAccount, Jefferies, Bank of America's, Apple Intelligence, " Bank of America, Barclays Locations: Amazon
Another busy day of megacap technology earnings kicks off Wednesday with results from Meta Platforms and Microsoft after the bell. Wall Street expects Meta Platforms to post third-quarter earnings of $5.25 per share, up from $4.39 a year ago, per LSEG. For Microsoft, EPS and revenue are expected to reach $3.10 and $64.51 billion, respectively, for the fiscal first quarter . Meta Platforms For Meta Platforms, analysts are hunting for signs that AI is continuing to boost the company's core product and advertising spending. Microsoft Microsoft faces a tougher bar headed into the print, with many analysts leaning toward caution as the company lags some of its megacap peers and underperforms the Nasdaq Composite.
Persons: haven't, Davidson, Gil Luria, Citi's Ronald Josey, Citi's Josey, Mark Mahaney, Barton Crockett, Mark Shmulik, Bank of America's Justin Post, Keith Bachman, Citi's Tyler Radke, Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss, Weiss, Goldman Sachs, Kash Rangan, Azure's Organizations: Meta, Microsoft, D.A, Revenue, Google, Bank of America's, Microsoft Microsoft, Nasdaq, BMO Capital Markets, BMO
Stock futures slid on Wednesday evening, as Wall Street absorbed a fresh batch of earnings reports from megacap technology names. S&P 500 futures lost 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 27 points. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, while the Dow dropped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 0.6%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that the PCE grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% from a year earlier.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jamie Cox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Investors, Federal, Harris Financial, Tech, Apple, Merck, Intel
European markets are expected to open in flat to lower territory Tuesday as traders in the region await more earnings reports. Earnings are set to come from Adidas, Lufthansa, Novartis, Santander and BP, among others. Data releases of note include Germany's GfK consumer confidence figures. Europe's largest lender HSBC on Tuesday announced it will repurchase up to $3 billion in shares as it issued better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed in spite of gains on Wall Street as investors looked toward a slate of mega-cap technology earnings this week, including Meta Platforms and Microsoft on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday..
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: France's CAC, IG, Adidas, Lufthansa, Novartis, Santander, BP, HSBC, Tuesday, Meta, Microsoft, Apple Locations: Asia, Pacific
Asia-Pacific markets are set to open higher, tracking gains on Wall Street as investors looked toward a slate of megacap technology earnings to keep propelling the Nasdaq Composite to new heights this week. Japan's Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a slightly stronger open for the market, with the futures contract in Chicago at 38,715 and its counterpart in Osaka at 38,630 compared to the previous close of 38,605.53. This comes after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority after voters cast their ballots on Sunday to determine the control of the lower house, marking the first time since 2009 that Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was 0.44% higher in its first hour of trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 20,733, higher than the HSI's last close of 20,599.36.
Persons: Australia's Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Liberal Democratic Party Locations: Asia, Pacific, Chicago, Osaka
Citi forecasts an expected total return of 33% for the name. Earlier this month, JPMorgan raised its price target on the name to $195, which corresponds to a potential upside of 41% from Monday's close. Citi also highlighted Ally Financial as a stock to buy, and the firm sees an expected total return of 48% for the name. Shane's $40 price target is nearly 14% higher than where shares of Ally closed on Monday. Wlodarczak's $170 price target implies a potential upside of 46% for the stock.
Persons: Russell, Scott Chronert, Said, Matthew Boss, Hollister, Richard Shane, Shane's, Jeffrey Wlodarczak Organizations: Citi, megacap, Federal Reserve, Citi U.S, Abercrombie, Fitch, JPMorgan, Entertainment, Research Locations: Monday's
European markets are expected to start the week on a lackluster note Monday as investors review the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 8 points lower at 8,243, Germany's DAX up 30 points at 19,747, France's CAC up 12 points at 7,508 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 108 points at 34,648, according to data from IG. Market participants will be digesting a cooling geopolitical situation in the Middle East Monday after weekend airstrikes by Israel against Iran did not target oil or nuclear facilities as feared. Oil prices slid more than 4% Monday, although Citi analysts discounted the chance of an escalation that disrupts oil supplies. U.S. equity futures jumped as investors looked ahead to a batch of mega-cap technology earnings to keep driving the Nasdaq Composite to new heights this week.
Persons: Germany's DAX Organizations: France's CAC, IG, Citi, Nikkei, Nasdaq Locations: Israel, Iran, Asia, Pacific
U.S. equity futures jumped as investors looked for a batch of megacap technology earnings to keep driving the Nasdaq Composite to new heights this week. Weekend airstrikes by Israel against Iran did not target oil or nuclear facilities as was feared and oil futures were lower in early trading. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.5%. Both the Dow and S&P snapped a six-week winning streak, but the Nasdaq eked out its seventh positive week in a row. "One thing we expect to see play out is these megacap tech names continuing to reinforce commitment to AI in tech spending broadly," Yung-Yu Ma chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management, told CNBC.
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Presidential, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, BMO Wealth Management, CNBC Locations: Israel, Iran
A torrent of big-name earnings hit the stock market this week — and the majority did not live up to analysts' muted expectations. Of the S & P 500 companies that have reported so far, about 74% of companies have beaten earnings expectations . But their blended earnings growth rate, which includes the reports already out and estimates for those on the docket, is 3.4%, falling short of the 4.2% estimate. The growth rate of just the companies that have posted so far is 3.1%, according to FactSet. Tech stocks buoyed the market on Friday ahead of their looming earnings reports, lifting the Nasdaq Composite to a record high.
Persons: Philip Morris, ServiceNow, Phillip Colmar, Colmar Organizations: CNBC, MRB Partners, Tech, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Locations: Colmar
Here are 13 top stocks that are cheap and have above-average earnings growth. Mega-cap growth stocks dusted their smaller peers for 18 months, beginning in early 2023. These firms have above-average earnings growth and cheaper-than-average valuations, and they have an impressive record of outperformance over the last few decades. Without potent earnings, GARP stocks could risk falling into the "value trap" category. Cheaper GARP stocks should become more appealing in that backdrop, according to BMO, and historical performance backs that up.
Persons: , Brian Belski, he's, Belski Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Service, BMO Capital, BMO, Markets
Third Point's Daniel Loeb believes the odds are rising that former President Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidency this November over Vice President Kamala Harris and the influential hedge fund manager is increasing positions that would benefit under a Republican administration and Congress. But Loeb in his quarterly missive said he was increasing both "stock and option purchases" to bet on the Trump win scenario. Loeb is not alone on Wall Street in making those bets with JPMorgan most recently highlighting gains in bank stocks and the U.S. dollar as signs more investors see a Republican win. The fund gained 4% last quarter, according to the letter, also trailing the market. But he sees the improvement in market breadth that began in the third quarter continuing, especially under a Republican administration.
Persons: Point's Daniel Loeb, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, ", Loeb, Harris, missive, Biden, CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: U.S, Republican, CNBC, Biden, NBC, Trump, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, Danish
Nvidia 's rally to a record intraday high on Thursday briefly helped lift the S & P 500 into uncharted waters, leaving investors to wonder what's next for the artificial intelligence trade. The S & P 500 broad market index also touched a record high during the day, mostly driven by strong semiconductor and financial stocks. Nvidia's stock, which scored an all-time closing high on Monday, has added 1.6% so far this week. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia, 1-day chart Martin likes the AI trade looking ahead, especially as year-end — typically a strong time for the market — nears. And then they'll try and take some profits, and then they'll try and buy it back a little cheaper, and then it'll go back up again."
Persons: what's, Jensen, Tom Martin, Martin, they'll, it'll Organizations: Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Investments Locations: Taiwan, China
Some well-known stocks could see big moves on the back of earnings reports this week. CNBC Pro screened to find the stocks that could see the biggest swings in either direction following their earnings releases this week. While the typical analyst polled by LSEG has a hold, they expect a rebound ahead with a price target suggesting shares can bounce more than 13%. Analysts surveyed by LSEG have a buy rating and price target suggesting shares can climb 7%. The average analyst surveyed by LSEG has a buy rating, with a price target suggesting shares should hover around flat for the next year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, LSEG, Lawson Winder, Oppenheimer's Jason Helfstein Organizations: Columbus Day, United Airlines, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Walgreens, WBA, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Amazon, Dow Jones, Alcoa, Bank of America, Netflix
With the bull market in stocks now two years old, investors are wondering how long the rally can last. AdvertisementThe stock market bottomed on October 12, 2022, marking two years since the start of the ongoing bull rally. A resilient job market, lower inflation, and continued corporate earnings growth helped push the stock market higher over the past two years. A common Wall Street expression is "rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market," and that appears to be playing out. Advertisement"Although many might think this bull market has gone too far and is getting old, that isn't the case at all.
Persons: , Jay Woods, Woods, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Baird, Ross Mayfield Baird, Ross Mayfield, Mayfield, Rob Haworth, Haworth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Freedom Capital, Jay, Freedom Capital Markets, Carson, Carson Group, Business, Asset Management, Rob, Bank Asset Management, Federal Reserve
US stocks fell Monday as bond yields and oil prices moved higher. The rise in oil prices and solid September jobs report has revived inflation concerns. Friday's release of the September jobs report sparked the move higher in yields. AdvertisementMeanwhile, oil prices continued to surge on Monday, rising by about 4% as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer on the first anniversary of the Hamas-led attack against Israel. The rise in oil prices and the stronger jobs report are fanning fears of a potential rebound in inflation, which would mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Organizations: PepsiCo, Service, Treasury, Israel, Federal Reserve, Amazon, Epic, Bank of America, Here's Locations: Hurricane Milton, Wells
The outcome of November's presidential election could have major implications for some popular technology stocks. Meanwhile, a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris may lead to tighter AI regulations focused on safety, ethics and protecting consumers. AI chip giant Nvidia is another likely winner in both split scenarios and a Republican sweep. Heightened antitrust controls over Google and its local search monopoly in a Democrat sweep and split Harris government should also benefit shares of Yelp down 27% this year. Republican sweep Raymond James views Salesforce as a potential big winner in a Republican sweep, noting that "more favorable" corporate tax rates should benefit cyclical software names.
Persons: Raymond James, Donald Trump, Trump, Ed Mills, Kamala Harris, Mills, Harris, Melissa Fairbanks, John Davis, Andrew Marok, bode, Salesforce, Davis, Datadog, Adam Tindle, Josh Beck Organizations: Democrat, Veeva Systems, Flex, Visa, Democratic, Republican, Trump, Republican Senate, Microsoft, Nvidia, Verizon, U.S, Google, Apple, Texas, Intel, Qualcomm, Apollo Global Management, Arista Networks Locations: China, Washington, outperformance, Saudi Arabia, Yelp
Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson believes an 'everything rally' can take hold in the stock market. Interest rate cuts, economic growth, and yield curve changes favor risk assets, according to Jackson. AdvertisementThe stock market's relentless rise higher could turn into an "everything rally," according to hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital. AdvertisementHe added: "And when that happened, there was a stock market rally which lasted 10 months. The yield curve finally went positive earlier this month.
Persons: Eric Jackson, Jackson, , we've Organizations: Service, EMJ, CNBC, Nasdaq, Treasury Locations: Jackson
BMO's Brian Belski raised his S&P 500 price target to 6,100, signaling 7% upside by year-end. In a note on Thursday, Belski raised his S&P 500 price target for 2024 to 6,100, representing potential upside of 7% over the next three months. Belski's prior 2024 price target for the S&P 500 was 5,600. AdvertisementBelski also finds it encouraging that recent stock market gains have not been concentrated in just the mega-cap technology stocks. AdvertisementBased on Belski's 6,100 price target, that implies a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4x, which is above historical averages.
Persons: Brian Belski, , Belski, Belski's Organizations: Service, BMO, Wall, Federal, Fed
Chief investment strategist Brian Belski lifted his year-end target for the broad index by 500 points to 6,100. That new forecast implies the S & P 500 can climb 8.6% from Wednesday's close. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Belski said his update came after yet another rebound in equities pushed the index to trade around his prior target. Even if the S & P 500 tests lows seen during September's choppy trading, the investing strategist said he remains confident that it can rise into year-end. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 19% in 2024.
Persons: Brian Belski, It's, Belski, What's Organizations: BMO, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: Wednesday's, U.S
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