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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Nov. 22, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures climbed Sunday night as Wall Street kicked off a shortened Thanksgiving trading week. Despite this week's shortened trading week, the interest rate outlook is back in focus with the release of October's personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. On the corporate earnings front, several retailers and tech names are slated to release quarterly results during the week. On Tuesday, retailers Macy's, Nordstrom and Best Buy are reporting results, as well as tech companies CrowdStrike and Dell Technologies.
Persons: Russell, Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Trump, Bessent, Phillip Colmar, Nordstrom Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Key Square, Treasury, MRB Partners, President, Federal, Dell Technologies Locations: New York City . U.S
.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500, 1 month The S & P is still about 3-4% above levels where chart readers would start to get more concerned about the underlying trajectory. Even in Friday's 1.3% slide in the S & P 500, only two-thirds of all stocks were down on the day and the equal-weight S & P was off a modest three-quarters of a percent. It makes sense that the market wasn't able to summon a sustained thrust of exuberance after the election anxiety evaporated, given the somewhat demanding starting point. A more mature economic and risk cycle and vulnerability to higher rates among smaller, lower-quality stocks mean they aren't likely to lead from here, Pies says. Is the market presciently foretelling an unleashing of transactional fervor that will return Wall Steet's middlemen to their former glory?
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell, Jay Powell, Warren Pies, Goldman Organizations: Nasdaq, KBW, ICE, Trump, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank, 3Fourteen Research, Wall Street Locations: Friday's
Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US
The small cap Russell 2000 index contains domestic companies that should benefit in a protectionist, on-shoring environment as long as inflation and rates stay contained. The monthly chart of the Russell 2000 shows a pending breakout from all-time highs of 2,459. Put in simpler terms the Russell 2000 small cap index has underperformed the large cap S & P 500 index for the past 13 years. The small cap Industrial ETF just broke from a consolidation around $135 and is still in the earlier stages of the expansion. The forward valuation is 28 times 2025 earnings so not egregious for this high growth small cap industrial name.
Persons: Russell, Elliott, Todd Gordon, Gordon, POWL Organizations: Utilities, MGE Energy, Powell Industries, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineWhen the numbers are this good, you've got to start with them. "Equities are eager to price in Trump's domestic growth policies," Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said in a note to clients. While the Trump rally has gotten off to a roaring good start, it remains to be seen when — and more importantly, how — it'll end.
Persons: Walter Lundon, Donald Trump, Timothy A, Clary, you've, Russell, Venu Krishna, Mislav Matejka, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, — CNBC's Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Barclays, JPMorgan, Minneapolis Locations: New York City
Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineWhen the numbers are this good, you've got to start with them. "Equities are eager to price in Trump's domestic growth policies," Barclays strategist Venu Krishna said in a note to clients. While the Trump rally has gotten off to a roaring good start, it remains to be seen when — and more importantly, how — it'll end.
Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Andrew Kelly, you've, Russell, Venu Krishna, Mislav Matejka, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, — CNBC's Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim Organizations: Republican, U.S, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Barclays, JPMorgan, Minneapolis Locations: New York City, U.S
For one, the market was already in a sturdy uptrend, the S & P ahead by 20% in 2024 by October. Now, the S & P is up 44% in the past 18 months and the P/E is above 22 on more elevated margins. Here's the S & P 500 Value vs Growth relationship since 2014. His call is for investors to fade any near-term rally that takes the S & P above his 6100 "bull case" target for year end. For sure, the S & P 500 is by some measures running a bit hot, pushing above the top end of its two-year bull-market path.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jay Powell, Trump, Cyclicals, Russell, YTD, Doug Ramsey, we're, reflating, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Republican, Trump Trade, Federal, Treasury, financials, Nasdaq, Group, Investment, Trump, Russell, Citi Locations: upending Washington, U.S, year's
Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, , Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China
There are too many investors in the so-called Magnificent Seven and it's time to move away from them, according to value investor Bill Nygren. While there has been some rotation out of high-flying tech names into smaller stocks, the small-cap Russell 2000 still lags the S & P 500 for the year. "We think it's a really good time for an investor to diversify away from the concentration in the S & P 500," Nygren, Oakmark Funds chief investment officer and portfolio manager, said Monday on CNBC's " Money Movers ." Nygren highlighted automotive parts supplier Genuine Parts as a name he likes. Genuine Parts is currently at around 16 times trailing earnings, well below the S & P 500's multiple of 27.7, per FactSet.
Persons: Bill Nygren, Russell, Nygren, William Stengel, Stengel, Rob Davis Organizations: Nvidia, Meta, Oakmark Funds, Industrial Technologies, Merck
Earnings next week will be key to where stocks head from here. While roughly one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reported over the past week, about 20% of the broader index plans to report next week. He noted that the S & P 500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 , it's the first such streak going back to December 2023. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S & P 500 slightly outpaced the market-cap weighted benchmark this week, a bullish signal for sectors such as health care.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, it's, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, Russell, Nelson Yu, Harker Organizations: U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Lockheed, GE Aerospace, Business Machines, General Motors, Verizon Communications, United Parcel Services, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Philadelphia Reserve, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Locations: Independence, Philadelphia, . Kansas
Frustrated small cap investors are turning to companies with profits as the bull market in big cap stocks starts its third year. Not so with the small-cap Russell 2000 : it didn't bottom until October 2023, and is only 35% off the low, still 9% shy of its historic high in November 2021. Including 2024, the S & P 500 has outperformed the small-cap Russell 2000 in 12 of the past 15 years. A similar fund that also tracks the S & P SmallCap 600 Index is the iShares Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR). Other small cap funds with a profitability tilt have also seen strong inflows recently, including the Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF (DFAS) and the Avantis Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV).
Persons: Russell, hasn't, it's, SPSM, Rob Harvey, Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon Organizations: Russell, Health Technology, Technology Services, Technology, Street Global Advisors, U.S, Value, Dimensional Funds, BNY
Bull markets tend to sputter in year three
  + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
.SPX mountain 2022-10-12 The S & P 500 has gained more than 60% during this bull market. However, prior bull markets have shown a tendency to lose a little steam in their third year. Bank of America research showed that 10 prior bull markets for the S & P 500 had an average return of -2% in months 25 to 36. Another thing to keep in mind is that even positive third years for bull markets tend to be bumpy. Of course, a slump for the S & P 500 could be an opportunity for small-cap stocks to catch up .
Persons: Ritesh Samadhiya, Sam Stovall, Russell Organizations: Bank of America
It could be time to rethink popular portfolio strategies for a lower interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve's half-percent rate cut on Wednesday marked the first time in more than four years it moved to lower the benchmark interest rate. According to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, investors should start thinking about how the changing macro environment will affect their investments in the year ahead. "We're going to be in an easing cycle, so small-cap companies are going to be benefited by lower interest rates," the firm's chief ETF strategist said. With rates finally beginning to fall, van Eck points to the federal deficit as the next potential challenge for markets.
Persons: Jan van Eck, CNBC's, Russell, Jon Maier, it's, Crane, Maier, van Eck Organizations: Federal, Morgan, Investors
Don't get caught up in the debate on large-cap versus small-cap stocks — the real Goldilocks opportunity lies in mid-cap stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. "Today, mid-cap equities offer investors superior earnings growth at a reasonable price compared with large-caps," Ma wrote in a Tuesday note. "Mid-cap stocks have typically outperformed both large-caps and small-caps during the 12 months following the first Fed rate cut in an easing cycle," she added. In addition, mid-caps have "stronger fundamentals" compared with small-cap names, Ma noted. Here are some of Ma's favorite mid-cap names that are both high quality with potential to grow.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell, Jenny Ma, Ma, Ma's Organizations: Neurocrine Biosciences, BioMarin Pharmaceutical
Management blamed "higher interest rates and greater macroeconomic uncertainty" for pressuring consumer spending on home improvement projects. The recent data certainly supports the idea of a rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting. However, that's weeks away, we know things can turn on a dime in the data and the stock market. Lower rates can certainly impact the stock market — but when it comes to picking individual stocks, we remain focused on earnings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Thursday's, Stanley Black, Decker, Stifel, bode, Russell, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, PPI, Management, Dow, Home Depot, Trade, Costco, Depot, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, New York City
The global sell-off in equities could end up being a mere "growth scare," according to Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. The index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has more than doubled to above 50 since Friday, when it stood at roughly 23. For his part, Lee has been one of Wall Street's more bullish market commentators . But Lee opined that the sharp spike in Wall Street's fear gauge may suggest that a return to investor confidence could be over the horizon. "We have over three days where suddenly markets reversed, [and] declines like that are generally symmetric but you have to watch the VIX," Lee said.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of, greenback Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. U.S. stocks retreatU.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as weaker-than-expected jobs and manufacturing data sparked concerns about a rapid economic slowdown. Treasurys gainThe benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since February as investors digested weak job numbers and braced for a September rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield last traded at 3.981%, down 12.3 basis points, while the two-year yield eased to 4.156%. Asian stocks tumbleJapanese stocks dropped 5.8% on Friday as Asia-Pacific markets reacted negatively to the sell-off on Wall Street.
Persons: Russell, Tim Cook, CNBC's Steve Kovach, Brian Olsavsky Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Institute for Supply, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nikkei, SoftBank, Mitsui, Marubeni, CSI, Services, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Olympics, Tech, CNBC Pro Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks retreatU.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as weaker-than-expected jobs and manufacturing data sparked concerns about a rapid economic slowdown. The 10-year yield last traded at 3.981%, down 12.3 basis points, while the two-year yield eased to 4.156%. Looking ahead, Apple expects services to grow by about 14%. Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC's Steve Kovach the company has increased spending on Apple Intelligence to get it ready by fall.
Persons: Russell, Tim Cook, CNBC's Steve Kovach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Wall, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Institute for Supply, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Tech, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Stocks
CFRA Research sees more upside for the benchmark S & P 500 over the next 12 months, even if the risk of near-term profit taking looms. The higher forecast implies a year-end target of 5,770 for the S & P 500, or a 4.5% uptick from Wednesday's close for the benchmark. Stovall's previous year-end S & P 500 target called for 4,940. A combination of more stable supply-and-demand dynamics coupled with a widening of market gains supports the more bullish outlook, CFRA said. The S & P 500 has a roughly 14% gain this year, compared to the Nasdaq Composite's roughly 15% advance.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Evercore's Julian Emanuel, CFRA, Russell Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq Locations: Wednesday's
Wall Street ended July with a bang that turned a volatile month into a winner. The Russell 2000 soared 10.1% in July, its biggest one-month gain since December. .RUT YTD mountain Russell 2000, year-to-date Bank of America thinks this "pain trade" will continue as a new month of trading kicks off. Among the big analyst calls on Wall Street this morning, Morgan Stanley upgraded GE Vernova to overweight from equal weight. "We believe we are at the early stages of a multi-decade energy transition investment cycle that will require significant capital investment in gas power, renewables, and grid expansion/enhancement.
Persons: Russell, Savita Subramanian, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Percoco Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Bank of America, GE
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as traders considered fresh results from Amazon and Intel. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 hasn't been spared from the recent tumult, down about 3.3% in the period and on pace for its worst weekly performance since January. On the earnings front, energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil will be announcing their quarterly results Friday before the market open.
Persons: July's, Dow, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, Russell, " Holzer, hasn't, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Amazon, Intel, Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, LPL, EAB Investment, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: New York City . U.S, Thursday's
CNBC's Jim Cramer examined Thursday's market action, attributing the day's brutal sell-off to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady instead of making a cut. "To me, today's terrible action in stocks was a function of the Fed not cutting rates yesterday," he said. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a rate cut was "on the table" in September, many on Wall Street feared that would be too late. The "soft economy" is new, he added, saying last year at this time Wall Street criticized the Fed for being unable to tame inflation. "I have better things to do with my time than lambaste a Fed chief for conceivably letting the economy wither for seven more weeks," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, they've, Jerome Powell, Russell, Cramer, lambaste, Powell Organizations: Federal, Wall, Investors, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Fed
Greg Davis, the firm's president and CIO, told CNBC's Bob Pisani that the small-cap rebound makes sense from a valuation standpoint and could keep going. "Small caps, to us, still look relatively cheap — relative to some of the large-cap alternatives that are out there," Davis said. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up nearly 10% in July, while the S & P 500 is flat and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2%. Small-cap value , in particular, has outperformed, including the Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF (VTWV) , which is up 11.9%. The small-cap rally comes after this bull market was mainly led by a handful of Big Tech stocks, including Nvidia and Microsoft .
Persons: Greg Davis, CNBC's Bob Pisani, Davis, Russell, Vanguard Russell, it's, Jack Bogle, Salim Ramji Organizations: Vanguard, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, BlackRock
Stock futures rose modestly on Sunday evening as Wall Street gears up for a busy week of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3%. The move in futures comes after a volatile week in the stock market. This week's earnings slate will play a role in determining whether tech stocks can now bounce back. Another key event this week will be the Federal Reserve meeting, with the central bank set to release a new policy statement on Wednesday.
Persons: Russell, it's, Callie Cox Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Federal Reserve
As for Club earnings, we got positive results from life sciences company Danaher and industrial firm Dover. Ford was a major disappointment and its nearly 20% stock drop for the week was the worst performer in the portfolio. In the week ahead, it's going to be another big week of earnings with the four mega-cap names and 10 other Club names set to report. Linde : We're looking for more of the same — steady earnings growth; 6% is the Street estimate. End market commentary will also help us better formulate our view of the economy — and in turn the stock market.
Persons: Russell, Jerome Powell's, Ford, Stanley Black, Decker, We're, we'll, Elliott, we've, We'll, Kraft Heinz, Vita Coco, COCO, Lam, SIRI, WEN, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michael M Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Communication, Honeywell, YouTube, Procter & Gamble, Devices, Microsoft, Starbucks, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Meta, Apple, Coterra Energy, Linde, Silo AI, Elliott Management, GE HealthCare, Amazon, Apple Intelligence, U.S, Labor, Fed, Networks, Procter, Gamble, PayPal, Pfizer, BP, JetBlue Airways, Merck, Solar Inc, Caesars Entertainment, Electronic Arts, EA, Nation Entertainment, Boeing, Cruise, Mastercard, Teva Pharmaceutical, Hess Corp, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Western, eBay, EBAY, MGM Resorts, MGM, ConocoPhillips, Mobileye, Canada Goose Holdings, Hershey, Toyota, Dominion Energy, Air Products & Chemicals, Southern Company, International, Coterra Energy Intel, Coinbase, Booking Holdings, LIN, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, LyondellBasell Industries, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: Dover, Eaton, Amazon, China, destocking, Corning, New York City
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