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☆ Investor sentiment starting to enter into frothy territory with so much going well for stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Fully 90% expect a "soft landing," or "no landing" at all (i.e. That's not the case here: the Fed is cutting rates going into, at worst, a soft landing, which is very unusual. The S & P 500 was up 2.0% in September and is higher by 0.9% so far in October. Historically, the S & P tends to rise beginning in the last week of October and through November and December. Goldman Sachs noted that, since 1928, the median S & P 500 return from October 15 to December 31 has been 5.17%.

Persons: That's, Alicia Levine, BNY, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, buybacks, Stocks, there's, AAII, BofA Organizations: America, Trump, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Fed, buybacks, American Association of Locations: U.S, frothy

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ The stock market is headed for a 10% correction as the job market slows and inflation stays sticky, Stifel stock chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's stock-strategy chief pointed to the slowing job market and the potential for sticky inflation. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe stock market could be headed into an end-of-the-year correction, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The slowing job market has already caught the attention of investors, who are watching for signs of continued economic weakness. "It's very hard to justify getting below 3% without a slowdown," Bannister said of interest rates.

Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, —, " Bannister, Bannister Organizations: Service, CNBC, Conference, Challenger, Investors, Investor

☆ The US will enter a mild recession as the economy deflates after its boost from unproductive stimulus cash, former Commerce Secretary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.

Persons: —, Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor

☆ Stocks won't hit new highs anytime soon and 3 things mean the market is fairly valued, Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 probably isn't hitting fresh highs anytime soon, according to Wells Fargo. AdvertisementThe stock market's long winning streak may be done for now, Wells Fargo said. That's because to a trifecta of headwinds will cap gains for the S&P 500. "For these reasons, we find it unlikely that the S&P 500 Index will reach meaningful new highs in the coming months." Since then, growth fears have overshadowed excitement about rate cuts, and questions about the sustainability of the AI rally have dented tech bullishness.

Persons: —, Wells Fargo, Stocks, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, Investor Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ September's poor history is hard to ignore, but market has many things on its side including the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.

Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S

☆ The 'soft landing' hypothesis is alive and well: What retail sales and Walmart earnings tell us
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation relief was palpable this week, with both the producer price index and consumer price index reinforcing that inflation is trending down. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 Index over the past month. S & P 500 earnings growth of 10% is expected in 2024, and 15% growth is seen for 2025. True, revenue growth hasn't been as strong, and much of the reason earnings are holding up is cost cutting. Growth is slowing, but no recession is apparent Interest rate cuts coming and earnings are still holding up.

Persons: It's, John David Rainey Organizations: Walmart, American Association of, Bulls, Atlanta Fed, CNBC

☆ Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. AdvertisementHussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, he's, — Organizations: Service, Investment Trust, Investor

☆ The stock market's sell-off is over and the Fed gave 5 bullish signs to investors at its latest meeting, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors

☆ The Fed will only cut rates when it's panicking over a recession and a market crash, Black Swan investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."

Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, —, Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor

☆ The Fed is going to make inflation worse with rate-cut promises, former central banker says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed could be making inflation even hotter with its promises of rate cuts. That's according to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who says the central bank is "goosing" the economy. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve could be mucking up the economy with its promises that it will cut interest rates later this year, according to former central banker Kevin Warsh. Related stories"The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve … are goosing this economy," Warsh said. "A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up."

Persons: Kevin Warsh, —, Warsh Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury Department, Federal

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are on cloud nine. That could be a bad sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.

Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, “, Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York

☆ Recession odds are 'very high' as economy looks poised to see an unemployment wave and plunging consumer spending, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, — Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ These 3 stocks could lead the charge for a 19% surge in the S&P 500 to 6,000 this year, according to a market research firm that counts Wall Street's top banks among its clients
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThe S&P 500's 22% tear over the last few months may just be getting started, according to Sevens Report Research, a market research firm with clients that include top Wall Street banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and more. On the valuations front, the S&P 500's multiple would only have to rise fairly slightly to lift the index to 6,000. "The S&P 500 is already trading with an elevated forward P/E multiple of over 20X expected 2024 EPS," he said. "If sentiment gets frothy, however, and stocks trade with a multiple pushing 22X, which is far from unheard of as the forward multiple of the S&P 500 hit 21.4 on 1/2/2022, then the S&P 500 could surpass 6,000 in H2'24." Essaye also said small-cap stocks cyclical sectors like big banks, and materials and transportation firms would do well in a soft-landing scenario.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Tyler Richey, Richey, aren't, Louis Fed, Tom Essaye, Essaye, it's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, UBS, Business, Investor, CNN, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Amazon Locations: H2'24

☆ These unique assets are now a popular way to lock in yield. What to know about defined maturity ETFs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

After being on the market for more than a decade, defined maturity bond funds are finally attracting attention. Traditional open end, bond mutual funds or bond ETFs, on the other hand, have no maturity date. One big advantage over owning individual bonds, however, is that defined maturity ETFs are easy to purchase on the stock exchange. How they work Each defined maturity bond fund holds securities in the same sector that come due in the calendar year chosen for the fund. Callable bonds are simply those that can be redeemed or paid off by the issuer prior to the bonds' maturity date, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Persons: Charles Rotblut, Bonds, Sarajat Samant, Karen Veraa, BlackRock's, —, Veraa, IBonds, Invesco, Treasury iBond, Jason Bloom, Invesco's Bloom, haven't, I'm, BlackRock's Veraa, Morningstar's, Samant, AAII's Organizations: Investors, American Association of, Treasury, BlackRock, Securities and Exchange Commission, Invesco Locations: BlackRock's iShares, U.S

☆ Here come the buybacks: Company stock purchases may give year-end rally additional lift
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The year-end rally we've been enjoying could get another lift as companies scoop up shares of their own stock. Those gains are driven mainly by falling Treasury yields, as well as third-quarter results that have come in largely better than anticipated. But some market observers expect equities could get another boost from the number of companies exiting the "buyback blackout" window. This period spans several weeks around quarterly results when companies are restricted from repurchasing shares. As of the survey's close last Tuesday, that would mean the S & P 500 would reach 4,945, or an all-time high.

Persons: we've, Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, Jill Carey, Grabinski, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank, Investor

☆ Analysis: US stock market technicals suggest possible rebound as earnings, CPI loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has slid about 5% since reaching its late-July high, but so far this month the benchmark index has rebounded. In 12 of those times the S&P 500 was higher six months later, Turnquist said. Reuters GraphicsStocks have tended to perform well at year end -- with November and December logging the second and third-biggest average S&P 500 monthly gains -- though this year the trends may portend even more favorably. That was followed by a 28% rally in the S&P 500 through late July of this year. Further, notes Delwiche, stock market breadth has been weak.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Willie Delwiche, Delwiche, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Thursday’s U.S, Ned, Ned Davis Research, LPL, Reuters Graphics, American, of, Mount Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Stock market carnage isn't over yet as soaring bond yields send investors into 'extreme fear' mode
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market isn't going to recover from its recent rout soon as three headwinds remain, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted that valuations are still too high, and interest rates are too restrictive. Investors have entered "extreme fear" mode as interest rates surge to a new cycle-high. "Our cautious outlook will likely remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive, valuations expensive, and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has entered "extreme fear" territory over the past week as investors fret about high interest rates.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, CNN

☆ Wall Street’s mood is improving — but it’s far from upbeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Wall Street’s optimism has edged up in recent weeks after an August slump to levels not seen since the collapse of several regional banks earlier this year. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which tracks seven different barometers for market sentiment, has oscillated between “neutral” and “greed” territory this month after plunging to a “fear” reading mid-August. The broad-based S&P 500 index has roared 16% higher this year, propped up by Wall Street’s infatuation with artificial intelligence that’s driven a powerful rally in tech stocks. While the Fed’s policy meeting is taking place next week, there’s a laundry list of factors stoking uncertainty in the market. September has historically been the worst month for stocks, and it could live up to its reputation this year.

Persons: it’s, August’s selloff, ”, Eric Sterner, Wall, Michael Arone, Arone, Chris Isidore, “, Gary Quirk, Quirk, epitomize, Birkenstock Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Apollon Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Stocks, State Street Global Advisors, American, of, United Auto Workers, Stellantis, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Samsung, UAW, Wall Street, US Securities and Exchange Commission, New York Stock Exchange, Financial Locations: Kokomo , Indiana, New York, United States

☆ Investor sentiment turns sour after a bad month for stocks - here's why that's a bullish sign.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The August sell-off in the stock market has flipped investors from bullish to bearish. Various sentiment indicators have flipped negative, signaling that investors are still worried about a broader stock market decline. That's table stakes in the stock market and is typically viewed as "profit taking" or "healthy consolidation of the market's recent gains." And the stock market loves to prove its skeptics wrong as it often climbs a wall of worry. The sharp decline in sentiment suggests that investors are more worried about getting trapped in another bear market decline than they are missing out on the next bull market rally.

Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Investor Locations: bullish, Wall, Silicon

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Less cash, fewer bears could leave U.S. stocks vulnerable
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The upshot, some believe, is that there is now less cash on the sidelines to drive further gains and fewer skeptical investors to win over. The bank’s survey of fund managers showed cash allocations dropped to 4.8% in August, the lowest level in 21 months. Bearishness among retail investors, meanwhile, is at half the levels seen in September 2022, according to the AAII Sentiment Survey. Should the market stabilize, investors will likely reallocate more cash to stocks later in the year, she said. Of course, while optimism has grown, it is still far from extreme, and cash levels are far from historical lows.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, that’s “, Willie Delwiche, Quincy Krosby, Steve Chiavarone, Chiavarone, ”, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BofA Global Research, Mount Research, Federal, U.S ., China Evergrande, HK, U.S, LPL, Federated Hermes, Thomson Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Treasury yields are putting pressure on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineRising U.S. Treasury yields are straining stocks. All three indexes closed below their 50-day moving average — the first time for the Dow since June. All indexes are still above their 200-day moving average.

Persons: Michael M, That's, —, bullishness, It'd, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Treasury, it's, Fed, Investors, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Trading, American, of, Investor Locations: New York City, U.S, There's

☆ Stock market bullishness is rising, and that's not necessarily good
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The July Bank of America Fund Managers Survey, a survey of more than 200 global fund managers, out today, indicates that 68% expect a "soft landing", while only 21% expect a "hard landing" (4% expect "no landing"). That estimate for a "soft landing" has been rising for several months. One of the underpinnings of a rising market is high levels of skepticism because it represents people who would come back into the market. But with a lot of investors jumping back in, it makes it harder for the market to advance. The market now has two problems: 1) rising levels of bullishness, and 2) high valuations, with the S & P 500 now trading at roughly 19 times forward earnings, well above the historic average.

Organizations: Bank of America, Survey, American Association of Locations: hawkish

☆ These are the 8 warning signs investors should follow to know if a stock market correction is imminent
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Even as the stock market continues to surge more than 25% from its mid-October low, some investors are expecting a correction. These are eight warning signs investors should monitor for a potential stock market sell-off, according to Fundstrat. For those investors, Fundstrat technical analyst Mark Newton highlighted the top warning signs to monitor to gauge whether a stock market correction is imminent. These are the eight warning signs investors should monitor to gauge whether a stock market correction is imminent, according to Fundstrat. So far this year, the mega-cap tech stocks have driven a bulk of the gains in the stock market.

Persons: Mark Newton, —, Newton, REITS, Tom Demark Organizations: Service, Utilities, Staples Locations: Fundstrat

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