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☆ Postelection stock market thrust unable to be sustained as rate and valuation worries creep back in
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500, 1 month The S & P is still about 3-4% above levels where chart readers would start to get more concerned about the underlying trajectory. Even in Friday's 1.3% slide in the S & P 500, only two-thirds of all stocks were down on the day and the equal-weight S & P was off a modest three-quarters of a percent. It makes sense that the market wasn't able to summon a sustained thrust of exuberance after the election anxiety evaporated, given the somewhat demanding starting point. A more mature economic and risk cycle and vulnerability to higher rates among smaller, lower-quality stocks mean they aren't likely to lead from here, Pies says. Is the market presciently foretelling an unleashing of transactional fervor that will return Wall Steet's middlemen to their former glory?

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell, Jay Powell, Warren Pies, Goldman Organizations: Nasdaq, KBW, ICE, Trump, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank, 3Fourteen Research, Wall Street Locations: Friday's

☆ How the stock market is likely to react to the election outcome
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has jumped nearly 5% since the fourth quarter began on Oct. 1, while the S & P 500 is ahead a little more than 1%. In the event of a Trump win but with a divided Congress, the S & P 500 is likely to remain flat in the days following the election, Emanuel wrote. Evercore ISI expects the S & P 500 falling in the 10 days after the election, to roughly 5,700, as markets re-price their expectations. 3Fourteen Research co-founder Pies expects a Harris win would translate into a drop in cyclical and small-cap stocks, and spur investors to turn to high-quality tech names. However, a Harris win, with a split Congress, is an outcome that could spur a drop in the S & P 500 immediately after the election, down to about 5,525, according to Evercore ISI.

Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Mike Mullaney, Trump, Harris, Julian Emanuel, Warren, CNBC's, Emanuel, Evercore, Jeff Schulze, Evercore ISI's Emanuel Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, NBC, Boston Partners, Treasury, Trump, Republican, Regional Banking, Evercore ISI, 3Fourteen Research, Democratic, ClearBridge Investments, ISI

☆ The biggest pressing market questions with two months to go in rewarding year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-26 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.

Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells

☆ Strong earnings growth could take the market above 7,000 by 2026, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrong earnings growth could take the market above 7,000 by 2026, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss why he expects more stock upside from here.

Persons: Warren

☆ Expect a mild commodity bounce between now and the election, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a mild commodity bounce between now and the election, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder and Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk if the Federal Reserve should cut 25 basis points or 50 basis points.

Persons: Warren, Bob Elliott Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, Federal Reserve

☆ 3Fourteen's Warren Pies says he's fading recession fears and is still in the soft landing camp
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email3Fourteen's Warren Pies says he's fading recession fears and is still in the soft landing campWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the likelihood of a recession, where he's finding opportunities and his Fed outlook.

Persons: Warren Pies, Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research

☆ Don't chase small caps, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't chase small caps, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his second half of the year playbook.

Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research

☆ Stock futures are flat Thursday after S&P 500 suffers worst day since April: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday night after the S&P 500 had its worst session since April, dragged lower by investors' rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks. S&P 500 futures were marginally higher. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up by around 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline. Investors sold their Big Tech winners, pushing Nvidia lower by 5.6% and leading to a 4.1% decline for Meta Platforms . The S&P 500 is up 0.3% through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.4%.

Persons: Dow, Russell, Warren, We've, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Investors, Big Tech, Meta, Traders, Federal, 3Fourteen, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, University of Michigan Locations: Thursday's, Wells Fargo

☆ 3Fourteen's Warren Pies explains why he expects the bull market to continue into second half of 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email3Fourteen's Warren Pies explains why he expects the bull market to continue into second half of 2024Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the market performance in the first half of the year and what to expect ot see from the markets moving forward.

Persons: Warren Pies, Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research

☆ Nasdaq hits another record close
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNasdaq hits another record closeScott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's record market action.

Persons: Scott Wren, Warren Organizations: Nasdaq, Fargo Investment Institute, 3Fourteen Research Locations: Fargo

☆ 3Fourteen's Warren Pies expects consistent weakness in crude oil ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email3Fourteen's Warren Pies expects consistent weakness in crude oil aheadWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the oil trade, bond market, and jobs data.

Persons: Warren, Warren Pies Organizations: Warren Pies, Warren, 3Fourteen Research

☆ Nvidia dominates the AI chip market, but there's more competition than ever
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Kif Leswing | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Mizuho Securities estimates that Nvidia controls between 70% and 95% of the market for AI chips used for training and deploying models like OpenAI's GPT. Nvidia's position in the AI chip market has been described as a moat by some experts. Founded in 2019, D-Matrix plans to release a semiconductor card for servers later this year that aims to reduce the cost and latency of running AI models. "Nobody can deny that today Nvidia is the hardware you want to train and run AI models," Fernando Vidal, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, told CNBC. "The key is that there are a lot of options there," Su told reporters in December, when her company launched its most recent AI chip.

Persons: Jensen Huang, Huang, Sid Sheth, It's, that's, Fernando Vidal, Lisa Su, Su Organizations: Nvidia Corp, Nvidia, Technology Conference, Microsoft, Apple, Mizuho Securities, Intel, AMD, Bank of America, 3Fourteen, CNBC Locations: San Jose , California

☆ S&P 500 enters June near a record but with growing concerns about the market's narrow leadership
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-01 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The S & P 500 is a mere 1.2% from its all-time high, yet only 60% of its member stocks are up for the year and just over 40% last week were above their 50-day moving average. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, 1-year We seem to undergo one of these periods of decrying a lack of market breadth every few months in recent years. Bespoke Investment Group last week looked at the small number of past instances when the S & P 500 was so close to a record yet most stocks were beneath a 50-day average. The 100-day correlation between the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit its lowest level since the dot-com bust of the early 2000s, according to CNBC's Data & Analytics group. The S & P 500 at the highs hit 21-times forward earnings, and we've spent very little time above that outside the pandemic melt-up and the tech boom/bust a quarter-century ago.

Persons: Warren Pies, Dow, Scott Chronert, we've Organizations: Investment, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Treasury, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Dell Technologies, Citi, UBS Locations: Banks

☆ We need to get beyond this Fed narrative and start looking ahead to 2025, says RBC's Lori Calvasina
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to get beyond this Fed narrative and start looking ahead to 2025, says RBC's Lori CalvasinaLori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy, and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina Lori Calvasina, Warren Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, 3Fourteen Research

☆ Fed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss shelter disinflation and takeaways from the CPI report.

Persons: Warren

☆ Powell will interpret any data he can in a dovish way, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell will interpret any data he can in a dovish way, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, and Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO & CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Powell, Warren, Bob Elliott Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, CIO

☆ Breaking down the market sell-off and odds this 5% pullback turns into a 10% correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.

Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon

☆ This is going to be a choppy quarter, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is going to be a choppy quarter, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss whether he expects more downside for stocks.

Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research

☆ Bond market's biggest mover is the Fed's terminal rate, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBond market's biggest mover is the Fed's terminal rate, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research founder, and David Bahnsen, The Bahnsen Group CIO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Bond, Warren, David Bahnsen Organizations: 3Fourteen Research, Bahnsen

☆ Take profits now from oil beta, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTake profits now from oil beta, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research Founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the market sentiment and today's pullback.

Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen

☆ Stock futures are little changed as major averages’ rally takes a breather: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 20, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Monday night, after the major averages took a breather from their rally. Month to date, the major U.S. stock benchmarks are on pace for their fifth straight month of gains. Despite some concerns that the market rally has crossed into overbought territory, investors still can't be underweight on equities as of now, according to 3Fourteen Research cofounder Warren Pies. Durable goods orders and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey will also provide insight on the health of the manufacturing sector.

Persons: Dow, Warren Pies, CNBC's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Richmond Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S, overbought

☆ It's been four years since the market's Covid low with the S&P 500 returning 25% annualized since
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.

Persons: –, Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America

☆ Nvidia's terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.

Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi

☆ There are a lot of people who want in on this market, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are a lot of people who want in on this market, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, if he thinks the bull market will continue on this path and more.

Persons: Warren Organizations: 3Fourteen Research

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David Zervos
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Warren Pies, David Zervos David Zervos, Warren Organizations: Jefferies, 3Fourteen Research

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