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☆ Dollar eyes weekly gain on slower Fed easing, inflation outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The euro was in turn on track for its worst weekly performance in seven months with a fall of 1.75%. Sterling traded 0.02% lower at $1.2666 and was similarly set to lose 2% for the week, its worst weekly fall since January 2023. Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under President-elect Trump's incoming administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Fed's easing cycle longer term. The yen was last 0.2% lower at 156.57 per dollar, on track for a weekly decline of 2.5%. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar eased 0.06% to $0.6450 and was set to lose just over 2% for the week, its worst weekly performance in four months.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's, bitcoin, Joshua Chu Organizations: Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., Treasury, New Zealand, Hong Kong Web3 Association Locations: U.S, CBA's Kong

☆ Dollar braces for U.S. inflation data and several Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. The dollar started in a cautious mood on Monday as markets braced for U.S. inflation data and a throng of Federal Reserve speakers this week, while the yuan nursed a hangover from Beijing's latest underwhelming stimulus package. Reports on retail sales and industrial output due Friday should show whether Beijing's various attempts at stimulus are having any real effect on demand. The dollar stood at 7.1970 yuan , having jumped 0.7% on Friday, and looks set to again test the 7.2000 barrier. The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 105.00, after gaining 0.6% last week mainly against the euro.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Donald Trump's, Michael Feroli, Jerome Powell, cryptocurrencies Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, U.S, Fed Locations: China, New Zealand

☆ Mortgage rates will be high throughout 2025 even as the Fed lowers borrowing costs, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates will remain above 6% throughout 2025, Goldman Sachs said. In the bank's 2025 Housing Outlook, the analysts forecast mortgage rates will remain elevated, even as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. They expect mortgage rates to stay above 6% next year and end 2025 at 6.1%. "Our strategists expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the foreseeable future," the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, said in a Monday note. AdvertisementThey pointed to a variety of technical factors, including lower rates volatility and a rebound in demand for mortgage-backed securities that will help close the gap between risk-free rates and mortgage rates.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Freddie Mac, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Analysts, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close lower after CPI shows sticky inflation in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes slipped Thursday as investors priced in a higher-than-expected inflation reading. The data raises the possibility of a "no landing" scenario for the US economy. AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday from records reached in the previous session, as traders took in a sticky inflation reading for September. September consumer price index data released on Thursday showed inflation rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above consensus forecasts of a 2.3% rise. AdvertisementThe core CPI reading, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.3% year-over-year and just above forecasts of 3.2%.

Persons: —, Stocks, Hurricane Milton, Jamie Dimon, Buffett Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Investors, Labor Department, Here's, Insurance Locations: Hurricane

☆ Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes. Traders are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in November. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. AdvertisementAccording to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut.

Persons: —, Paul Donovan Organizations: Service, Reserve, UBS Global Wealth Management, Pantheon, Fed, US Department of Justice

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster September jobs report — and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.

Persons: —, Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked

☆ Swiss central bank cuts rates by a quarter point in third trim this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A view of the headquarters of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), before a press conference in Zurich, Switzerland, March 21, 2024. It was the first major Western central bank to reduce interest rates back in March. Domestically, Swiss inflation remains subdued, with the latest headline print pointing to a 1.1% annual increase in August. Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term," it added. He added that the central bank may nevertheless have to reduce rates again to retain inflation in the 0-2% target range.

Persons: exacerbation, Swissmem, SNB, Kyle Chapman, Chapman, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Adrian Prettejohn, Prettejohn Organizations: Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Swiss, U.S ., ING, Ballinger Group, Reuters, Capital Economics Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe

☆ Yen nurses losses as BOJ meets, dollar dogged by rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese 10,000 yen, left, and US 100 dollar banknotes arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on Friday, May 10, 2024. It has been a tough week for the yen, with the euro gaining 2.2% to 159.46 as speculators booked profit on recent long yen positions. The dollar was up 1.4% for the week at 142.84 yen , though off an overnight high of 143.95. "As such, there is scope to further raise the policy rate while keeping financial conditions accommodative," she said. "The recent financial market ructions and the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party election may make the BOJ more cautious about raising."

Persons: Samara Hammoud, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling Organizations: Bank of, U.S ., CBA, 25bp, Liberal Democratic Party, U.S Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, Samara, China, U.S . Federal, Bank of England

☆ JPMorgan economist who nailed half-point call sees another big Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At its much-anticipated meeting Wednesday, the Fed approved a half percentage point, or 50 basis point, cut to its benchmark funds rate that ran counter to the 25 basis point move that many Wall Street economists and strategists had been expecting. The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 4.75% to 5.00% after Wednesday's move. Futures market pricing Thursday suggested a 25 basis point move in November followed by a 50 basis point cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. A basis point equals 0.01%. "Ultimately what we found most important in what Powell said was also among the least surprising things he said: future decisions are going to depend on the data," Feroli wrote.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Street Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar catches footing ahead of Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales had traders slightly trimming bets that the U.S. easing cycle will begin with an outsized interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first interest rate cut in more than four years at 1800 GMT, which will be followed by a news conference half an hour later. A rate cut is fully priced, with interest rate futures implying a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, after flirting with 70% a day earlier. Traders say the Fed's tone as well as the size of the rate cut will drive the next moves in the foreign exchange market. China's stock, bond and currency markets resume trade on Wednesday after the mid-autumn festival break, though it is a holiday on Wednesday in Hong Kong.

Persons: Nathan Swami, Swami Organizations: Federal, Traders, Citi, Australian, New Zealand, Sterling, Bank of, ANZ Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Asia, U.S, Japan, Atlanta, Singapore, Hong Kong, Bank of England

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up ahead of major Fed interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

US indexes edged higher as investors waited for a likely interest rate cut from the Fed. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders readied for what's likely to be the Federal Reserves's first rate cut in four years. "Though consensus is leaning toward a 50 basis point move, we look for the Fed to cut by 25 basis points today. AdvertisementFollowing the interest rate decision, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver prepared remarks during a press conference. "While the market has usually bounced immediately following the 2 PM rate decision, the sell-off usually starts at or near the end of Powell's post-FOMC press conference."

Persons: Jerome Powell's, —, John Lynch, José Torres, Jerome Powell, Powell, shouldn't Organizations: Fed, Traders, Service, Federal, Comerica Wealth Management, Interactive, Deutsche Bank, Investment

☆ Gold's rally to records shows no signs of slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices just won't stop rising. Year to date, gold is up nearly 26% — outpacing the S & P 500's 18% gain. Since ETF holdings only increase gradually as the Fed cuts, this upside is not yet fully priced in." Investors seeking exposure to gold can obtain it through exchange traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) . The fund, which tracks gold prices and charges 0.4% in fees, is up nearly 25% in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas, Christopher Danely Organizations: Reserve, Goldman, Miners, Gold Miners, Citigroup, Micron Technology

☆ Dollar pinned down by 50 bp Fed cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar traded near its lowest levels of the year on Tuesday, on the eve of the expected the start to a U.S. easing cycle that markets are betting may begin with an outsized rate cut. The euro rallied overnight to $1.1138 and traded around there early in the Asia session, not far from the year's high against the dollar of $1.1201. Fed funds futures rallied on Monday to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 67%, against 30% a week ago. "That's because the contrast between central bank outlooks will remain starkest between the Fed and the BoJ, for the time being." The U.S. dollar index weakened 0.4% overnight to 100.7, not far from its 2024 low made last month at 100.51.

Persons: Sterling — Organizations: Macquarie, Fed, Bank of, The Bank of England, New, U.S Locations: U.S, Asia, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, New Zealand

☆ Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Last week, markets expected a quarter-point rate cut and were just happy that the Fed was starting the cutting cycle. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And fed funds futures now point a majority of traders seeing a half point cut. Even though most Fed officials and economists believe the central bank would start with a quarter point. But now we've gone from that fear to expecting a half point. On the other hand, the JPMorgan traders think that a cut of a quarter point would "add to market uncertainty," meaning that we probably shouldn't expect the market to keep building on its all-time highs with a quarter point.

Persons: wouldn't, Michael Feroli, CNBC's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, JPMorgan

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 goes for 5-day win streak as markets look ahead to next week's Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Friday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 aimed for a five-day win streak. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut announcement next week. The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2019, with about even odds for a 25- or 50-basis point cut. Based on probabilities from the CME's FedWatch Tool, there's a 49%/51% split on whether the Fed will deliver a 50-basis point or 25-basis point interest rate cut, respectively. AdvertisementNext week's expected interest rate cut from the Fed will represent the first time the central bank has lowered rates since 2019.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, it's, Aditya Bhave Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: Here's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes climb as producer inflation comes in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks were higher on Tuesday after PPI showed wholesale inflation was less than expected in July. Investors are now bracing for the consumer inflation reading due out on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks were up on Tuesday after the producer price index for July showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that producer prices increased 0.1% last month compared to estimates of 0.2%. The cooler-than-expected reading should boost optimism for consumer prices to show a decline in inflation when the consumer price index is released on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Chris Zaccarelli, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Elon Musk Organizations: PPI, Investors, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Depot, Bank of America, Starbucks, Trump Media, Elon

☆ Dollar tenses for data verdict on rate cut risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback was idling at 147.17 yen , having briefly touched a one-week high of 148.23 overnight before profit-taking emerged. More important will be the consumer price report and retail sales for July which could have a material impact on whether the Fed eases by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in September. The former outcome would likely lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, while the latter would have the opposite effect. The futures market clearly still sees recession as a risk with 101 basis points of Fed easing priced in by Christmas, and more than 120 basis points for next year. "Although the trend is moderating, inflation is too high for the Fed to justify the market pricing 100bp of rate cuts between September and year-end."

Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Swiss, Atlanta Fed, ANZ

☆ These dividend payers will beat the yields on cash as the Fed cuts rates, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank

☆ Here's what usually happens to UK stocks when the Bank of England cuts interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.K. stock market is likely to rise over the course of 12 months, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates on Thursday and history repeats itself, according to a CNBC Pro analysis. Economists say the forecasts for whether the U.K. central bank will either reduce or hold rates are a close call. A decision to lower interest rates — which sit at at 5.25% currently — would mark the first time monetary police has been eased in Britain since the hiking cycle began in December 2021. The analysis found that, on three occasions the index had risen more than 20% on average within a year after an interest rate cut. For instance, the domestically focused index of 250 stocks rose by 17% across three months after the Bank of England cut rates in 1998.

Persons: Agne Stengeryte, BoE, Nora Szentivanyi Organizations: Bank of England, CNBC, CNBC Pro, Bank of, Bank, America's, Barclays Locations: Britain, Bank of England

☆ Stocks will rally 5% in just 5 days after the Fed's rate decision this week, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally would be sparked by a dovish Fed FOMC meeting on Wednesday that all but confirms imminent interest rate cuts. "These are significant gains, implying the S&P 500 could gain 200-300 points in the next week," Lee said. "The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp. Lee's confidence in a strong rally post-Fed meeting is based on the fact that recent Fed meetings have sparked a big rally in stocks. "Here are some tangible reasons a Fed cut makes sense: 30-year mortgage has excess spread to 10-year due to uncertainty.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Fed, Nasdaq

☆ Yen braces for BOJ decision with risk events aplenty
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

That is followed by inflation readings in France and the wider euro zone later in the day, alongside the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which takes center stage. With plenty of risk events to mark the month-end, currency moves were largely subdued in early Asia trade as investors were hesitant to take on fresh positions. "We anticipate that the BOJ will increase interest rates to around 0.25% at the upper limit." "A rate hike could help stabilize the yen's current levels, whereas the absence of a rate hike may trigger renewed selling pressure driven by carry trades." The yen similarly made headway against other currencies, with the euro falling 0.07% to 165.07 yen and the Australian dollar slipping 0.12% to 99.80 yen.

Persons: Gregor Hirt, Sterling eked, Julien Lafargue Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal, CIO, Allianz Global Investors, Traders, Barclays Private Bank, New Zealand Locations: Bank, France, Asia

☆ Yen jumps on suspected intervention, sterling hits one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The yen rose sharply on Wednesday in what traders suspected was likely the result of yet another intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the battered currency from multidecade lows. The euro was last down 0.8% at 171.15 yen, while sterling fell 0.76% to 203.75 yen. Combined with the estimated amount spent a day earlier, Japan is suspected to have bought nearly 6 trillion yen via intervention last week. That sent traders paring back bets of a rate cut from the Bank of England in August, providing a small boost to sterling , which was last up 0.43% to $1.3029. But the more important data is the inflation data, and that's telling the market that the Fed is in a position to cut fairly soon."

Persons: Geoff Yu, Masato Kanda, Michael Brown, Kyle Rodda Organizations: Mellon, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Monetary, MPC, Tuesday's, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: London, Tokyo, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Euro rises after France's first-round vote, yen struggles
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro rose on Monday after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position, though by a smaller margin than projected, while a downgrade to Japan's first-quarter growth figures knocked the yen lower. "They (RN) have actually performed a little bit worse than what was expected," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The yen struggled to gain ground against a broadly weaker dollar, and was last 0.05% lower at 160.93 per dollar. That could lead to a cut to the Bank of Japan's growth forecasts in fresh quarterly projections due later this month and affect the timing of its next interest rate hike, analysts said. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese yuan - also a victim of stark interest rate differentials with the U.S. - was last 0.02% higher at 7.2981 per dollar in the offshore market.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Carol Kong, Michael Brown, CBA's Organizations: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Reserve, New Zealand, Bank of, U.S Locations: Japan, Asia

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as weak private payroll data boosts optimism for rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in weaker jobs data. Investors are solidly betting on at two rate cuts in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in soft jobs data and revved up their hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, annual wage growth remained level at 5% — both promising signs that the job market is coolingWeaker hiring trends are good news for the outlook for rate cuts. Investors are largely expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its next policy meeting, but are still feeling bullish on rate cuts by the end of the year.

Persons: —, 1750,000 Organizations: Service, Treasury, ADP, Bank of America, Investors

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