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The stock market has entered full FOMO territory this year, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. And investor enthusiasm is not just concentrated in tech stocks, with broad market valuations appearing stretched. "There is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said. That's not cheap, as the historical forward P/E of the index is 15.3x, meaning that current valuations represent a 10% premium. "FOMO is in full swing, there is complacency being built into stocks with VIX at the lows of its range," Kolanovic said in a Monday note.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, it's, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: VIX, Service, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon, 17.4x, Japan
We're focusing on forward price-to-earnings ratios, calculated by dividing share price by estimated earnings-per-share over the next 12 months. In this high-level hypothetical, start with the multiple you want to pay and multiply that by forward earnings estimates. But now growth is less certain and interest rates are going up, so you think paying 10x forward earnings is too risky. Instead, you think paying 8x forward earnings is more appropriate, meaning you're only willing to pay $40 per share. Oilfield services provider Halliburton (HAL) trades at roughly 13x forward earnings, a valuation that we find very reasonable.
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