Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024.
"Trump's re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area."
Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained.
Trade tensionsTrump's trade policy, and the uncertainty around it, could be one factor that impacts Europe's economy, just as it did during his last presidency, analysts Stehn and Moberly said.
In 2018 and 2019, uncertainty about trade policy reduced industrial production in the euro area by around 2%, they estimated.
Persons:
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Locations:
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